Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 14.07.15

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Summary Monday:
High volatility prevails in the EUR / USD pair which resulted in today failed attack on the 1.12 level and then strong declines in the direction of a significant level of 1.1080. Supply showed strength and overcome specific support, leading to further declines in around 1.0995 levels. Today was realized through alternative variant, which assumed declines after breaking support at 1.1080. Despite the clear decline today, still we do not have a clear signal about the direction in a broader horizon.

Economic Calendar for Tuesday:
8:00 EUR German CPI             (m / m) (Jun)
9:00 EUR in Spain CPI             (y / y) (Jun)
9:00 EUR HICP in Spain (y / y) (Jun)
10:00 EUR Italian CPI             (m / m) (Jun)
11:00 EUR ZEW index of current economic conditions in Germany
11:00 EUR ZEW Economic mood in Germany (Jul)
11:00 EUR Industrial Production (m / m) (May)
11:00 EUR ZEW index
14:30 USD Retail Sales Base (m / m) (Jun)
14:30 USD export price index (m / m) (Jun)
14:30 USD import price index (m / m) (Jun)
14:30 USD Retail Sales (m / m)

The market tomorrow will receive a pack of very important data. The market will in particular pay attention to the data from Germany (ZEW index) and the US (retail sales).
Investors will pay less attention to the situation in Greece, but we should not forget that all uncomfortable reforms agreed in talks between the EU - Greece, will have to be voted by the Greek Parliament.

Forecast for Tuesday:
The situation on the EUR / USD pair is changing rapidly, and yesterday we were still above the important support at 1.1080. At the moment, we are close to levels last holes (1.0954 and 1.0916), which in my opinion should be the next target. But before we see further declines may be a small correction. Assuming that the exchange rate broke the uptrend line then we should see the return of the trend line and then declines with the aim to 1,0916-1,0954. In this case certainly help will be good data from Germany, which will pull up the course. Then better readings on retail sales in the US should help the US dollar             and awaken the appetite for interest rate hikes.

We can count the drops without correction. This variant will be fulfilled in the case of weak data from Europe and strong readings from the US.

In an alternative version tomorrow we can see the increase as a result of good data from Germany and weaknesses of the US, which will allow demand to break the resistance at 1.1080 and return to the vicinity 1,1130-40.
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