KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD
(1 day, log scale)
The picture is more mixed here than on the 1 hour chart :
-price was meeting resistance (horizontal & downward sloping trendline), has turned
-the April/May negative divergence worked out
-at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend).
-we have a lower high, that is a negative for EURUSD
-RSI has now turned to the downside, but it remained within the bull range 40-70.
That last point is a positive for EUR. That COULD be working out in favour of EUR, as it COULD develop into a sustainable uptrend, or a prolongued period of sideways movement.
Especially since there is support around 1.1050, and from the hourly I would expect a test of that level, the price action around that support level (holding or breaking) will determine whether we will see another attempt to break out to the upside (and getting nicely overbought on the RSI=requirement for uptrend) or a fierce break to the downside (thereafter first a test towards the lower supportline, perhaps even a break of the supportline, who knows?).
As said: from the daily chart the picture is more diffuse: still bearish, but with neutral to bullish potential. I would be okay with a fierce down move, given that I am short EURUSD, but one always need to keep an open mind to alternatives. 1.1050 or the lower supportline holding like a rock would be such a situation.
The market has, however, to convince me of that. Since previously, this level failed both to the downside (May 22nd) as well as to the upside (Jun 2nd). Let's see what the price action around the lower levels tell us.
In all: holding short.
(1 day, log scale)
The picture is more mixed here than on the 1 hour chart :
-price was meeting resistance (horizontal & downward sloping trendline), has turned
-the April/May negative divergence worked out
-at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend).
-we have a lower high, that is a negative for EURUSD
-RSI has now turned to the downside, but it remained within the bull range 40-70.
That last point is a positive for EUR. That COULD be working out in favour of EUR, as it COULD develop into a sustainable uptrend, or a prolongued period of sideways movement.
Especially since there is support around 1.1050, and from the hourly I would expect a test of that level, the price action around that support level (holding or breaking) will determine whether we will see another attempt to break out to the upside (and getting nicely overbought on the RSI=requirement for uptrend) or a fierce break to the downside (thereafter first a test towards the lower supportline, perhaps even a break of the supportline, who knows?).
As said: from the daily chart the picture is more diffuse: still bearish, but with neutral to bullish potential. I would be okay with a fierce down move, given that I am short EURUSD, but one always need to keep an open mind to alternatives. 1.1050 or the lower supportline holding like a rock would be such a situation.
The market has, however, to convince me of that. Since previously, this level failed both to the downside (May 22nd) as well as to the upside (Jun 2nd). Let's see what the price action around the lower levels tell us.
In all: holding short.
