EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938
Morning outlook - EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938
Due to release of negative data on the US Core Retail Sales, the Euro caught an upside momentum, which lasted until the pair met a resistance in the 1.1985-95 area.
At the moment, the currency rate is located near the updated weekly PP at 1.1938, being squeezed between the 200- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, an aggregate of technical indicators sends either neutral or ordinary buy signal.
This fact as well as the traditional Monday's inactivity suggests that the pair is unlikely to make major advances today.
However, generally, the pair is expected to make attempt to break through the above resistance towards the new weekly R1 at 1.2039.
On the other side, an average market sentiment remains 65% bearish, which means that in case of a new rebound bears might try to drag the rate down to the monthly PP at 1.1881.
Due to release of negative data on the US Core Retail Sales, the Euro caught an upside momentum, which lasted until the pair met a resistance in the 1.1985-95 area.
At the moment, the currency rate is located near the updated weekly PP at 1.1938, being squeezed between the 200- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, an aggregate of technical indicators sends either neutral or ordinary buy signal.
This fact as well as the traditional Monday's inactivity suggests that the pair is unlikely to make major advances today.
However, generally, the pair is expected to make attempt to break through the above resistance towards the new weekly R1 at 1.2039.
On the other side, an average market sentiment remains 65% bearish, which means that in case of a new rebound bears might try to drag the rate down to the monthly PP at 1.1881.
Comment:
EUR/USD waits for Fed’s decision
In line with expectations, a pressure from the 55- and 200-hour SMAs, better than expected German release as well as general informational background helped to pair to make a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern yesterday.
From technical point of view, the currency rate is continuing to feel pressure from the bottom from the before-mentioned moving averages. Hence, an area between 1.2030 and the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.2039 level, represents the next likely target to be reached by the pair.
By the way, the moment of approaching to this resistance level practically coincides with the announcement of the Federal Funds Rate.
In addition, that area also represents a breakout point from the recently formed rising wedge pattern.
In line with expectations, a pressure from the 55- and 200-hour SMAs, better than expected German release as well as general informational background helped to pair to make a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern yesterday.
From technical point of view, the currency rate is continuing to feel pressure from the bottom from the before-mentioned moving averages. Hence, an area between 1.2030 and the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.2039 level, represents the next likely target to be reached by the pair.
By the way, the moment of approaching to this resistance level practically coincides with the announcement of the Federal Funds Rate.
In addition, that area also represents a breakout point from the recently formed rising wedge pattern.
Comment:
EUR/USD plunges amid FOMC statement
A decision of the Fed to start reducing the size of its $4.5 trillion asset portfolio caused a very high volatility in the markets, which resulted in 123 points appreciation of the Dollar against the Euro just in one hour.
From technical perspective, this event signified a breakout of the pair from a rising wedge. Although the fall was sharp, it was stopped by a combined support formed by the monthly PP at 1.1881 together with the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel.
On the one hand, today the buck might make another attempt to break to the bottom, using the downside momentum from the yesterday’s event.
On the other hand, on a daily chart it looks like the rate formed a third reaction low yesterday and, for this reason, has to make a fully-fledged rebound.
A decision of the Fed to start reducing the size of its $4.5 trillion asset portfolio caused a very high volatility in the markets, which resulted in 123 points appreciation of the Dollar against the Euro just in one hour.
From technical perspective, this event signified a breakout of the pair from a rising wedge. Although the fall was sharp, it was stopped by a combined support formed by the monthly PP at 1.1881 together with the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel.
On the one hand, today the buck might make another attempt to break to the bottom, using the downside momentum from the yesterday’s event.
On the other hand, on a daily chart it looks like the rate formed a third reaction low yesterday and, for this reason, has to make a fully-fledged rebound.
Comment:
EUR/USD rebounds from bottom line of dominant channel
In accordance with expectations, the currency exchange rate made a rebound from a combined support set up by the monthly PP at 1.1881 together with the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel.
The better that expected US data release together with the remarks made by Mario Draghi in Frankfurt only supported the yesterday’s surge.
Today the pair is expected to continue to climb to the top.
- First, it has no barriers on its way except for the supposed upper edge of a junior descending channel.
- Second, it experiences pressure from a number of moving averages as well as the weekly PP, which from resistance turned into support.
- Third, at 8:00 GMT the ECB President is going to speak at Trinity College, which is likely to give additional stimulus to the Euro.
In accordance with expectations, the currency exchange rate made a rebound from a combined support set up by the monthly PP at 1.1881 together with the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel.
The better that expected US data release together with the remarks made by Mario Draghi in Frankfurt only supported the yesterday’s surge.
Today the pair is expected to continue to climb to the top.
- First, it has no barriers on its way except for the supposed upper edge of a junior descending channel.
- Second, it experiences pressure from a number of moving averages as well as the weekly PP, which from resistance turned into support.
- Third, at 8:00 GMT the ECB President is going to speak at Trinity College, which is likely to give additional stimulus to the Euro.
As it was expected, the currency exchange rate failed to make any substantial moves yesterday. To be precise, bears tried to push the pair to the bottom at least three times but all these attempts were neutralized by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
Accordingly, today it is testing a resistance that is located in the area between the 1.1985 and 1.1995 levels. A number of technical suggests that this attempt is going to fail, as the pair is overbought.
On the other hand, the rate experiences constant pressure from the above moving averages, which now became also strengthened by the 200-hour SMA.
From this perspective, the surge towards the weekly R1 at 1.2039 seems a more likely scenario.
In addition, if the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will justify expectations that could give the Euro a necessary impulse to reach the above target.