4xForecaster

Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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Friends,

This page will be left open for the purpose of introducing traders to a variety of financial market geometries. While most of the geometric             patterns are well know, such as H. M. Gartley's Gartley pattern , Scott Carney's Bat, Crab , Shark , ... as well as Robert Prechter 3-Drives , Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves , the emphasis will be to look at specific geometries, not necessarily naming each patterns, although if and once recognized, the credit should be rendered as it is always due.

You will soon realize that the majority of the patterns approximate those of Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves . Although I have not been a student of his, I have studied this and other related patterns on my own and developed my own naming, not for the purpose of usurping Mr. Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"), but simply because the analyses of this and other patterns are intimately derived from my own proprietary patterns (Janus, Great White, Euclidean) and occult geometries (nodes/nodal core, nodules/nodular core, euclidean modules).

Some of these concepts will be revealed and explained in the course of this thread, others will remain proprietary. The interest here is to offer the novice and advanced trader new insights and trading ideas, enhanced involvement in technical discussions, and the opportunity to widen his or her trading armament.

I hope that you will enjoy this thread, and if it becomes active to a level of potential confusion as we seek to display ideas about Forex, indices, futures , commodities and stocks, then I might open a new thread on a single trading element.

For the time being, I will start by posting some potential geometric             development, all of which is for educational purpose. So, due your own due diligence, as always.

Stay harmoniously tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----

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Comment: 30 SEP 2016 - Chart Update (Initial forecast: 2 yrs ago):

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David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: ADDENDUM - 30 SEP 2016 ... Adding specific dates of respective forecasts:

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Clients, students ... Good for you if you followed along!

David Alcindor
Comment: 30 SEP 2016 ... Addendum ...

Q: "How is it that $EUR could rise to that geometric level?"

Look for $DXY ... Click on this chart to link to initial analysis:
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Cheers,

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
19 MAR 2015 - Initial image:

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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
walter.weakley 4xForecaster
4 = target reached
Reply
* * * RULE OF ENGAGEMENT * * *


1 - CLARITY AND CONCISION:

“I would prefer an intelligent hell to a stupid paradise.”
― Blaise Pascal

Postings need to make sense, be clear in content, and simple in educational intent:

I would like to remind traders and chartists that this is a purely educational thread. Posting charts that are too complicated, or lack supportive and clarifying commentary on the pattern, or simply stand on their own as market directional statement or trade opinion without any educational value is bound to be removed at worst, or at best be left without any additional response on my part or that of other participants.

I recommend using only black bars, no to one indicator, and the simplest colors possible, so as to keep the explanation clear and succinct. I and others might not be interested in your prowess, or whether you were right in the initial direction.


2 - SYSTEMATIC, PREDICTABLE:


"The heart has its reason, which Reason itself does not know."

Sure, this sounds good Mr. Blaise Pascal, but here we are interested in reasoning. Not feelings. You will lost me and many other advanced traders if you post an analysis that is based on how you feel about the underlying market.

Instead, we are looking at market geometries with repetitive, reliable, trusted morphologies associated with predictable, consistent outcome.

Just as in mathematics where the solution is known ahead, it is the development of the idea, the reasoning that is most important. Being right is not as important as being able to explain why price would go in a particular direction, and why the retrospective analysis makes sense.


3 - VISUALLY TO THE POINT:

“People almost invariably arrive at their beliefs not on the basis of proof but on the basis of what they find attractive.”
― Blaise Pascal, De l'art de persuader

Charts should use no more than 2-3 colors.

The art of charting is to reveal the most with the least. You will see that the colors, arrows, and shapes I use remain as background features to price action, just like hand movement are supportive to words. I recommend that the chartist or trader keeps it as visually simple as possible. Plus, I am a visual trader. I cannot read and conceptualized the written words. That's how I am wired, and that is the case of so many other traders.

In the course of explanation and "mini courses", I will often explain the types of lines (solid, dotted or dashed) that I use in order to make sense of the developing pattern. Most of the time, I will stick to these line differentiation, so that you become visually conditioned to what is expected of the pattern, and where/when I expect the pattern to lead to a trading opportunity.

For example, you will see the following pattern, which is a wedge, with specific intrinsic point relationship between points 1, 3, and 5 (solid), and points 2 and 4 (solid), and most importantly between points 1 and 4 (dotted), as well as projection of Line 2-4 (dashed) off of Point-3 or off of Point-1, whereby Points 5-prime (5') and 5-second (5'') arise, respectively - More on this as we move along.

Here is an example:

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4 - ORGANIZED:

“Man is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness from which he emerges and the infinity in which he is engulfed.”
― Blaise Pascal

Hopefully, we will be able to keep each Forex pair together.

Ideally, the reply for a EURUSD-related pattern will remain as a reply under the same chart, and another chart will prompt a reply under that other chart. To keep things organized and easily traceable, I recommend to introduced each comments with a date. The format I use is as follows:

"20 MAR 2015 - Update: ..."

Visually, this will help the trader follow first the day, then month, if at all possible. The topic or title would then follow. just a suggestion that would help us all.


I will now close this window and start posting charts in which I believe a relevant geometric development is occurring. Feel free to follow at your own agreement and pace. I will NOT answer privately unless the content demands it. I want to make it a communal, shared opportunity to learn high-probability set-ups, advance the knowledge and curiosity of market analysis, and engage traders to become their own fishermen.


5 - INDEPENDENT THINKING AND ACTION:

I will not offer trading advice, directional opinion, or "feelings" about these posts. The goal here is to train your mind's eye to search and trade opportunities based on geometric development. My participation is to engage you as a development, thinking, independent and indivisible individual, and only you know based on your risk tolerance what is a risky exposure, based on the timeframe used, based on your rism management, and personal knowledge of your financial situations.

I will sometimes offer entries, stop-losses, and target levels, either via evident reasons from the patterns, or hidden and unexplained reasons using my proprietary predictive/forecasting model, but most of the time, the purpose is to give you the advantage of growth, independent thinking and action - That is the sole, ultimate goal of my involvement in this thread and within the community of TradingView.com.

I will not seek to be right, but let the market prove me wrong against patterns, methodologies and strategies that have granted me high-probability set-ups. For this reason, I would rather suffer reasonable losses that refine a high-probability set-up, than occur gains against unknown predictions. Plus, being wrong does not disprove your set up. It only represents the allowance of chance playing out against a good system, and invites the chance to refine what shuld never be construed as a finished work or analysis. As Blaise Pascal once said:

“Contradiction is not a sign of falsity, nor the lack of contradiction a sign of truth.”
― Blaise Pascal


Stay tuned.


David Alcindor
+6 Reply
Jbblt 4xForecaster
Nicely written. Your clarity and no BS informative approach, with a touch of good humor is amazing and refreshing in this cluttered industry!
+3 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $AUDNZD:

Should we be curious about the possibility of further downside here?

Yes. A lot of the patterns you are about to encounter will develop a triad of tops/bottoms, either with diverging 1-3 tops/bottoms or converging one.

I keep my mind's eyes open to CONVERGING ones.

Here are divergent examples ... Still worth keeping under the elbows:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Converging lines in the larger pattern:

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You will see that this pattern is one that I am seeking the most.

While I use a predictive/forecasting model to detect trend, strength, direction, targets, ... etc, I like to use an independent geometry that I can trust. There is either a Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave ("WW") pattern I would use, or a variation of that pattern.

Mr. Bill Wolfe cautions anyone against individuals such as myself, who will tend to post his namesake pattern without knowing the content of his course. Mr. Bill Wolfe is absolutely right, and I advise anyone to seek more on the Wolfe Wave pattern following his lessons at http://www.WolfeWave.com.

My prior researches in market geometry, and crossing paths with Scott Carney's and other such discoverers of market geometries have thrown me down rabbit holes. I have mae my own subsequent discoveries by either developing my own patterns that are completely different and independent for Scott Carney's or Bill Wolfe for instance, or also develop further patterns, analysis or understanding using their discoveries as springboards.

The idea here is that market geometries are to be discovered. Patterns are found, not created.

I was very lucky to be part of the "mastermind" group at the time when Darren Oglesbee released his "Cypher" pattern to our private meeting before he would so generously do so to the public. He too did not invent the pattern, by simply discovered a price patterning that is repetitive, foreseeable and agreeable to reason in its reliable predictable nature.

Here too, the tendencies, the patterns and rules I will share with you will be of similar values: Mere discoveries that waited to be plucked off of the insiduous branches of harmonics, mathematics, geometry and other musically-submissive numerologies.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
30 MAR 2015 - Update:

As expected above, price did fall.

Most interesting at this point is the interplay of a larger and smaller background geometry likely to help dictate the next price action, as follows in today's chart update:

A smaller geometry (GREEN) completed at 5-prime, corresponding to a potential Point-3 definition of a larger geometry (RED).

Expect price to rally from current 5-prime level back up to the 1-4 Line (BLUE) of the smaller geometry.

Considering the pending completion of the larger geometry, the 1-4 Line of the smaller geometry should offer a probable reversal level towards that larger completion.


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD rallies nicely off of background geometry completion; Bullish targets intact

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@tradingview $AUD $NZD #forex
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David Alcindor

=================
Tech-Note:

So, price fell as forecast, hit target in the DAILY chart, and is currently rallying off of the completion of WW. This represents a higher-probability of rallying from current level (as you may also recall, the HIGHER time frame analyses are less sensitive, but more relevant. They are less sensitive in the way the Predictive/Forecasting Model can define a high-probability set-up, simply because the Model was designed to performed best in the synthetic, combined environment of both retail and institutional analyses, which is that H4 represents.

At this point, I would heed the DAILY chart over the H4, even though both contain approximate targets. Remember also that the nominal targets offer LESSER probability of attainment, but HIGH probability of reversal. So, in case where a TG-Hi or TG-Lo is reached, price is expected to rally, whereas a TG-Hix or TG-Lox may look like it represents the NEXT level, but it in fact has a lower probability than the TG-Hi or TG-Lo, respectively - If the latter are breached, then yes, the "x"-tremes nominal targets should then be considered - More on this later on as we move through this rabbit hole of a thread.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD hit lowest prob. target; Triggers high-prob rally; Supported by geo; Eyeing 1,0775:

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@tradingview $AUD $NZD
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David Alcindor

=====================


TECH-NOTE:


Price fell to its lowest nominal value defined within the DAILY chart as TG-Lox = 1.00945 - 28 JAN 2015. In contrast, at a smaller timeframe analysis, the H4 chart was also displaying a nearby 1.00824 Lox value. However, I will continue to cover the analysis of the chart based on the DAILY timeframe, as the gist of price action from the current level is placing a BULLISH expectation on future price action.

This bullish expectation is based on several rules, the least of which concerns the ectopic placement of Point-5 as 5-prime or 5-second, relative to the 1-3 Line.

Hence, as stated in my rules before:

1 - A 5-prime (5') completion should prompt the trader to look for a reversal and attainment of a price corresponding to the level of Point-4.

AND

2 - A 5-second (5'') completion should prompt the trader to look for a reversal and attainment of a price corresponding to the level of Point-3.

Each of these reactions are compensation for the offset geometric placement of points 5' and 5'' relative to the 1-3 Line which exists to give the original Point-5 its final residence.

At this point, me expectation is turning BULLISH for the reason stated above, as well as the internal geometric completion shown in the chart below:


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In this smaller geometry, a 5-prime is also defined, and this should submit itself to the same rule whereby price is expected to rally to that geometry's own Point-4 level. So, here too, expect a resistance, as the larger geometry will likely demand its own dues.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
03 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD completed 5-prime; Now eyeing reversal to 1.03268/1.03385 range:

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@tradingview $NZD $AUD #RBA #RBNZ #forex
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David Alcindor

=====================


TECH-NOTE:

H4 came into the picture here as well to reinforce the probability of a rally, as we were discussing the DAILY chart completion just yesterday.

At this point, a H4 and DAILY alignment (as well as any lower timeframe contribution, if there were any), should be construed as a very-high-probability of reversal to the UP-side.

From a Predictive/Forecasting Model standpoint, here too, ALL targets have been hit, and as this occurred at a NOMINAL/QUALITATIVE target, then prepare for a reversal, and not just a retracement.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
08 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD rose from hit target at geo's 5-prime; Eyes geo target @ 1.0475/1.052 range:

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@tradingview $AUD $NZD #forex
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David Alcindor

=====================

TECH-NOTE:

Here, we are applying the "Offset Rule" - The geometry remains background to the trade: The predictive/Forecasting Model called for loftier targets for quite some time by now, but here, the exercise is simply to take pause and follow the geometry.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $AUDUSD

Now, knowing a bit about the cadence of this pattern, should you be so bullish if you were within this timeframe?


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Answer is that we do not know with any absolute. But, but, but ... Starting with the high-probability of being right is more important than being right with uncertainty at the start.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
14 APR 2015, Re: $AUDUSD - Remains elusive. Here is a potential development - See H4 chart:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $CADJPY:

Now, using the geometry against an Elliott Wave cadence, is it not true that we should be a bit bearish in our most immediate expectation?


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I will answer with the chance that probability will direct price further down. Sure, I started with my predictive analysis/forecasting model that pointed to lower lows, but taken all three, I simply add independent weight on my cognitive balance.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$CADJPY - DAILY Chart:

Here is a same, but larger contextual analysis of that pair:


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Be careful that charts that appear oh-so clear, concise and therefore believable do not end up blurring your own mental processes. Here, the larger pattern is that of a widening triangle. The cognitive risk of pre-drawing a pattern will often tether the trader's mind.

For this reason, I often erase my charts and re-draw them in the most immediate and logical ways. The 4-hour chart makes more sense to me, whereas this DAILY charts remains too chancy. Still, worth keeping in mind's sight.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$CADJPY continues to defy gravity. Both geo, predictive model call for a Newtonian moment:

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@tradingview $CAD $JPY
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David Alcindor

======================


TECH-NOTE:

There is definitely something to be said about Elliott Wave's "Rule of Alternations", as the simplicity of Wave-2 is now compensating into a pouty, insinuous fourth wave meandering.

Still, the bears remain in force, and the overall technical expectation (Elliott Wave's 5th wave completion, Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave and my Predictive/Forecasting Model) are waiting for the same directional unfolding.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 APR 2015 - TECH-NOTE:

Watch out for the possibility of this ever occurring ... whereby a larger geometry would seek completion.Consider 98.807 as a trigger level for this lower-probability event:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
15 APR 2015 - Update:

Market moves, increases probability of alternate geometry; Upside potential remains limited by occult geo (NC) at 97.887:


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
16 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$CADJPY hit target at 97.887; Expecting significant resistance, reversal to to 93.028:

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@tradingview $CAD $JPY #BOC
-----------


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David Alcindor

===========================

TECH-NOTE:

Expect the occult geo to impose its own weigh on price at this achieved target level.

In terms of Elliott Wave, the entire impulse and subsequent retracement would likely be completed at current level, without compromising the EW rule.

Bearish outlook remains in force here, at least all the way to 90.005


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. To improve my trading would you mind assisting me with the following question on $CADJPY. At what point and how did you determine that there was a probability of price reaching higher to complete a larger WW at point 5. I'm looking at the chart published by you 16 days ago vs the chart published 9 days ago in which you first indicate a chance of price moving higher in this geo. Was it the fact the price broke above and closed above previous structure high ( previous structure high at around 96.0 mid March) or was it the internal WW which formed a new Point 4 which alerted you? I'm just fishing to figure out the answer, please put me out my misery :)
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+1 Reply
@iefan - No, it was much simpler than this, as I had already explained a few days ago.

As you may recall, one of the rule I have established calls for the consideration of the Elliott Wave and the speculative placement of a geometry. I sometimes try to see whether I could challenge this rule by forecasting a geometry that would use any segment of the EW's 3rd wave. Although it is possible that such a geometry could develop with its Point-1 originating off of EW's 3rd wave, it is generally NOT the case, which is why I made it a rule. Still, I am continually challenging it until it cannot be disproved (and in such a case, it would become "law").

There is a rule in Elliott Wave Principle, which is called the "Rule of Alternations" - Simply put, f corrective wave 2 is "simple" or composed of the least number of internal zig-zags, then the "Rule of Alternations" expects that its EW's 4th wave counterpart would be more complex, made up if a series of zig-zags. The same rule apply in terms of time to completion.

If you look at where EW 2nd wave terminates relative to its origin (where EW's Pt-1 terminates) and the time it took to achieve its height, then expect that a longer time will be granted to EW's 4th wave. As this Rule of Alternations would have it, this is exactly what you are witnessing in the prolonged development of EW's 4th wave.

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Once I realized that EW's 4th wave had not done developing, then there was no reason to expect that EW's 5th wave was any closer to start. There is also a pattern that developed in the mean time in my Model, alerting me that price would reach higher than what I had speculated to be the initial Point-4 (ghosted in the original chart, as you posted).

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For this reason, I had to look at a higher level than what was visibly available and realize that price would probably NOT rise any higher than another set of geometry rules I had established in the past through nodal/nodular geometries ... In this case, the core of the nodule above the formation of EW's 4th wave would going to impose its own resistance, letting price rise all the way up to but not any higher than its core value. What ensued was exactly that.

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You will see that a lot of the occult geometries I use will tend to have price hit and reverse right at that forecast, but then the market would typically revisit that area and wound around that value in a near symmetrical fashion. Here again, that is what happened at the close of market, last Friday.

Here is where we are today:

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Is this all coming together?

There is one thing I realized about predictive analysis and forecasting of any rice-moving element: Knowing standard pattern, basic indicators, and all the rudimentary lessons that banks or financial services are generically teaching is not enough.

Because all the lessons are all the same, most traders will feel empowered by something special, something imparted to them, especially because the moment they learn these lessons, they are surprise by the examples that support untruths and misinformation. It then goes on that you try a few things here and there, making some, losing some, but keep circling the zero profit line line a goat awaiting being bled one trading month at a time. Worth is that some traders will never believe that banks are teaching what they need you to know so as to keep your head aligned in the neck-snapping wedge, while others might even become comfortable with losing ever so often, so long as they can keep trading, and sometime getting fresh blood transfusion, transferred from the spouse's account.

Nothing is what appears, especially price, which is what "they" keep on telling you to fixate. By now, you must know my expression, so I'll stop ranting here.


David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$CADJPY - Sometimes, the predictive model works better than the background geometries:

-
Janus Prop Pattern Awaits At 103.703 | $CAD $JPY #forex


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
20 MAR 2015 - Update:

As posted on original chart, price remains bearish, submitting to several technical constraints, such as a pending Elliott Wave bearish impulse completion, as well as a pending 1-4 Line validation following background geometry completion. Independently, the predictive/forecasting model remains unanswered, waiting for its nominal target validation, TG-Lo = 90.005, defined last january 30th, 2015

Following is a statement of update made on original chart today, 20 MAR 2015, after market close:

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20 MAR 2015 - Update:

$CADJPY remains subdued to background geo;

Bearish 90.005 target remains intact:

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@tradingview $CAD $JPY #BOC #BOJ
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Thanks!


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $GBPAUD:

Here, if you recall, this was a great chart to follow. Feel free to return to the original analyses, but in the simplest intent, the 1-3-5 lines with convergence of the 2-4 is what I sought out:


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Coupled with other patterns and analysis, the probability of rolling off the highs was pretty high.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPAUD - DAILY chart:

Here is a larger view and analysis of that same $GBPAUD pair:


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Although I remain in a profitable short trade from Point-5, what should keep you on guard is the lack of convergence. Still, the predictive/forecasting model called for the targets written in the charts, but the geometry alone is also worth heeding.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
olajide11 4xForecaster
observation if there is connection between 1 & 4. the there should be connection between 0 & 3, 2 & 5. check it out

+1 Reply
Hello @alojide11 - Thank you for your participation.

I am not sure what you mean by "connection".

Also, what do you mean by "0"?

Feel free to post a chart using the cut/paste URL in the top-right corner of this writing window.

David
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David

I'm just keeping an eye on this larger geo development and the possible of Point 4 forming in the region of 1.83402
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+2 Reply
@iefan - Yes. You are doing exactly what needs to be done:

One rising price:
1 - Looking for higher-highs (here, your point-1) and lower lows (point-2),

Then;

2 - Complex, lengthy Point-2 to 3 connection: Not always, but often, this will take the shape of a prolonged zig-zag, whose internal structure might offer tunneling clues;

Then,

3 - Projecting a speculative 1-4 Line forward

AND

4 - Maintaining a strict (do no cross) 1-3 line projection off of Point-2: This parallel will guarantee that the nascent pattern remains with convergence 1-3 and 2-4 Lines

Then:

5 - A 1.414 or 1.618 Fibonacci extension off of points 1 and 2, to approximate (not define, just approximate) the probable level of Point-5.


INVALIDATION of this step-wise process of scanning for this geometry would occur IF current price action breaks (with or without closing) below the 1-3 Line projection off of Point-2 (which is NOT to be construed as the 1-4 Line, since the 1-4 Line angle will require to be obtuse and convergent towards the 1-3 Line.


=========================
* * * WW PEARL * * *

According to Mr. Bill Wolfe's site (www.WolfeWave.com) introduction of the pattern, where some of the construction information is free, the convergent lines in 1-3 and 2-4 can SOMETIMES define a point which, when projected downward (in this case of a rising 1-3 Line, but otherwise upward in the case of a declining 1-3 Line) onto the 1-4 Line will offer the approximate time and place of 1-4 Line validation - Mr. Wolfe states that this is not the most reliable part of the pattern, but an event he has observed multiple times before.
=========================


Very nice preemptive construction @iefan. Now, you understand why I define my 1-4 Line off of the internal geometric development that occurs within the 2-3 Line, and simply do NOT ALWAYS define the 1-4 Line off of Point-4 - This is how I discovered that tunneling concept, as price would open/close, or visually jump that 1-4 Line as the entire geometric system deployed itself into completion.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPAUD 23 March 2015 18:05

Hi David. Thank you very much for the feedback. We just hit your TG - 2 so a retracement is likely.....could it look something like this? Tunneling is not particularly inspiring.....

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+2 Reply
Hello @iefan - Well, the tunneling is in fact near-perfect. Here is a WW Pearl, relative to tunneling:


==========================
WW PEARL - Tunneling:

What you are seeking in tunneling is a MINIMAL number of bar/candle transection, in which the crossing of the 1-4 Line would occur between the high/low of the bar/candle.
==========================


In this case, you have:

1 - 32 bars over the span of the 1-4 Line from the moment of the FIRST validation INSIDE the pattern

YET,

2 - There is only THREE transections.

This is as high a ration of bars to transection you can ever get:

1 - ONE transection occurs as price falls fro Point-2 and validates the 1-4 Line (which at that point would have been speculative, but confirms it retrospectively)

AND

2 - The OTHER TWO are mid-way from this level to Point-4, where the price-high of the tunnel occurred.

Not too bad at all. The least number of transection that could ever occur is ZERO, which would occur as long as the high/low of a bar remained above and below the progressive fabrication of the 1-4 Line, but expect a few to occur, nonetheless.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPAUD hit its second target at 1.90587; Remains bearish; Eyes 1.87458:

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@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA #forex
----------


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David Alcindor

================

Tech-Note:

At this point, one has to prepare for the possibility of price rallying off of the 5-prime level to 1.94589, as follows:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
25 MAR 2015 - Update:

Trade Note:

A quick note here on a long from 5-prime: Decided to take profit at the 1-3 Line validation, on the basis that Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets remained unanswered ... Not that it would have to be, be this is a good place to renegatiate a LONG position if it ever rose.

As discussed in other threads, the level of POINT-3 is a VERY important trigger level for any geometry where the 5-prime has been attained, as it represents a "gateway" to the level of Point-4, which corresponds the TP value, using the Adverse Excursion Rule define before.

Remember that the numerical and quantitative targets (TG-1, TG-2, ..., TG-n) correspond to future R/S levels in new structural levels, or often align with prior structural levels defined by prior highs/lows.

In contrast, nominal or qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Hix or TG-Lo and TG-Lox) represent lesser probability levels of attainment, but high probability of reversal.

Since TG-Lo remains unanswered and price already hit the two numerical targets (TG-1 at 1.93340 and TG-2 at 1.90687 that were defined last February 19th), then the probability increases on the basis of price's proximity to TG-Lo.

Invalidation of the TG-Lo would occur if and once price breaks-across AND closes-across the corresponding level of Point-3, which would also be my re-entry level towards Point-4.

Hope this is all making sense to you.

NOTE: As indicated before, each of these comments have thumbs-up levels. If you liked any of the pearls, lessons or trading information related to that chart, I wil continue to tally which of these information appears to be the most informative or helpful to this community - Going forward, this will also help me avoid redundant information and develop more complicated concepts related to occult geometries, predictive analysis and forecasting, as well as simple pearls of trading.

Thank you for letting me know.


David Alcindor
+6 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM - chart in reference to above "Trade Note":


snapshot



David Alcindr
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPAUD hit target at 1.94589; Rallied further to complete background geo. along 1-4 Line:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD
----------


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David Alcindor

=======================

TECH-NOTE:

Here, you will notice that the minimum offset-rule was preserved, and price carried on to complete at the geometric 1-4 Line anyway.

Still, for trading purposes, I recommend that traders stick to the minimal expectation of attainment, which in this offset rule suggests that from a 5' position, price will reverse and reach a price corresponding to its geometric Point-4.

Here too, as the geometry is complete, I will leave this chart alone, unless something else arises.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM - $GBPAUD, DAILY Chart:


snapshot



Here, in its larger context, this arrowed move remains a probable event, as Predictive/Forecasting Model targets have not changed over the geometric development that has been taking place in the background.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPAUD 23 March 2015 18:13

Possible WW on the M15 TF to start the retracement?
snapshot
+2 Reply
@iefan - Another important feature of this geometry is that its ideal construction would see Point-4 residing between Points 1 and 2.

This allows for a RISING 1-4 Line when the 1-3 Line declines, in the case of a BULLISH geometry, and vice-versa. So, this pattern define above is more "unstable", being less balanced - It tends heavily to the downside, but it might still work.

All we are looking for are such geometries that fulfills their requirement, simply for the benefit of maintaining a higher probability of attaining the target levels. This could be construed as a lesser probability, but still a geometry worth pursuing, visually speaking.

What MIGHT occur instead, is the offsetting of points, whereby Point-3 is truly point-1, Point-5 would be Point-3 and the half-way peak between your current Points 4 and 5 might represent a tunneling landmark for a yet-to-be completed geometry at a lower lever.

This is HIGHLY speculative, but that forward speculative development would fabricate a "better looking", or perhaps more balanced product.


David Alcindor
+5 Reply
@iefan - BTW, I entered a short position late last night as price fell off of your Point-3.

The striking pattern here is called Three-Little-Indians - I do not support or agree with the name, simply for its generic racial reference, but the geometry is there.

1 - Three distinct moves, here upwards
2 - A decline from your Point-3, which is the apex of that smaller geometry
3 - Target is the first peak, or higher-high of this smaller pattern.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPUAD - Original predictive analysis and forecasting:

-
Backward Market Geometry | #technicalanalysis #forex #fibonacci


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $GBPJPY:

If you have followed my analyses on this pair, you should be pretty content about the reliability of this pair relative to the predictive model. Still, it also submits itself quite well to the intransigence of the background geometry:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPJPY:

Now, does the pattern require strict adherence to linear alignment or overall geometric composition?

No:


snapshot



It simply exists within certain "organic elasticities" of price, very often stretched out by Fibonacci orders.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPJPY - Fibonacci commands the extent of pattern's distortion:


snapshot



Hopefully, you will recognize this basic Fibonacci order.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPJPY - Original predictive analysis and forecasting:


Here is an example of a very tight RR trade (RR = 30.61 : 1) and a consistent analysis hitting targets one after the other

-
EAGLE Strat: Short Opp | $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex



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ABOVE charts were a step-by-step demonstration of a live short trade position. The background geometry was used to support the foreground predictive/forecasting model-generated targets.

But the trading opp was NOT done ... A long position was called into consideration, based on and thanks to the background pattern:


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Although the TARGET got hit on the way back up as well, the larger pattern remained relevant to any subsequent trading opportunity, as follows:


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... So, here again, a loftier TARGET got HIT ... Thanks to the pattern calling for a rallying from the very first bearish target.


NEXT, we looked at the following parameters:


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... Then, plotted the data into the predictive/forecasting model, to generate the following targets:


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As of 06 MAR, I posted this last chart picture in that $GBPJPY thread:


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... So, here we are of of today: 20 MAR 2015:


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That was a nice ride, as my protective SL was taken out in profit on the way up. What to do now?

... Simply let another opportunity present itself to your mind's eyes. Again, no need to force the cylindrical toy that won't fit in a square market.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
26 MAR

Hi David I hope your day is going well. I was hoping we can discuss this potential WW I may have found on GPBJPY.
What are your thoughts?

R
snapshot
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
Hello @Pip_Alchemist,

By contracting your bars a bit more, you should be able to fit a completed WW - I just posted an update on the $GBPJPY thread ... Here it what it reveals:

====================26 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY completes dual geometry at Pt-5; Opens to Carney's 5-0 Pattern; Bullish:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
======================

@Pip_Alchemist,

What you are looking for is a broad sweeping of price, as you highlighted in your chart, but the plotting you posted is inverted. Your 1-3 Line should be BELOW the geometry when pointing DOWN (inverted in the case of your posting), and ABOVE the geometry when pointing UP - In essence, the 1-3 Line should be counter-directional to the intended move at the time of completion.

Is this making sense?

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
ahh haa YES!! Thank you ever so much. That is very valuable feedback and I am extremely grateful. I shall keep posting on your threads to encourage other newbies to contribute!

R
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY eyes 1-4 Line target; Predictive Model's loftier targets remains in force; Bullish:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $JPY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor

==============


TECH-NOTE:

I hope somebody thought of thanking the bus driver for holding it down in such a sustained state of balanced geometry.

We are still waiting for further committal to the upside. SL right below the Point-5 mattress should stay dormant, just in case ... Hoping you do the same.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
15 APR 2015 - TECH-NOTE: A simplified version of this $GBPJPY is coming up, with a slight modification in the geometry.

For now, let price relax to 175.75 before LONG entry consideration. This is an educational advice to illustrate the development of a large price action to the UP-side ... Chart coming up.


David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
15 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY expected to relax down to 175.75 before rallying to level of Point-4:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $GBPNZD:

Do you start seeing a pattern developing in support of next target (which was defined way in advance on March 10th)?


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPNZD ... Okay, then here it is developing:


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
20 MAR 2015 - Update (from original chart):

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPNZD likely to complete background geo at 5-prime, at bearish 1.96738 target:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
23 MAR 2015 - Re: $GBPNZD Trade:

just entered $GBPNZD at 5-prime; TP at level of Point-4, although nearly aligned with Point-3 as well - Always chose the conservative road.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IgorParshin 4xForecaster
hi David you entered short ?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IgorParshin
Hello @IgorParshin - 5-prime is the low-point from which I entered. This is referring to a LONG entry. Point-4 is above and represents the Take-Profit ("TP") level referenced in the "$GBPNZD Trade" above - David
+3 Reply
Macainian IgorParshin
From what I understand about how David does his charting, this is a wolfe wave, such that it goes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5/5'/5'' and then goes the opposite direction as 4 to 5 went. So in this example, 4 to 5 went down, so the next move is up and I believe it will go up to at least where 1 and 4 line up to be (i.e. the dotted line connecting point 1 and 4).
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
02 APR 2015 - Update:

Price action hit TG-Lo, and barely reached the TG-Lox. At this point, we are pretty much done with this trade.


snapshot




- I will post more on this pair using a fresher chart if and once a pertinent technical event arises.


David Alcindor

==============================

TECH-NOTE:

Definitely not the prettiest development of the geometry, and not the most elegant completion of the nominal targets, but at least, we were able to follow this chart in terms of direction, intentioan, targets and reversal levels.

I hope you got to trade it as well.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
16 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPNZD eyes bearish target at 1.93154; Background geo awaits completion:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor

======================

TECH-NOTE:

With the aid of this background geometry, the trader should be able to approximate his/her own target. If you were able to follow this trade from the Bearish Entrenchment up above, you would still remain in a SHORT position - I hope you did.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
emre PRO 4xForecaster
This just hit the target! Another great call, thanks a lot.
snapshot


I am still having a little hard time understanding the entry points per this geometry. Now that the geometry is complete and we target the 1-4 line, what is smart entry point?
- Next bar closes above the one which marked 5? And if that doesn't happen, then would we consider waiting for a 5' or 5"?
- How does the point 3 line come in to the picture as confirmation?

Thanks a lot David. I learned more from you within the last two months than all my other readings the past two years.
Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $GBPUSD:


Now, let's take a look at the sterling:


snapshot



Here, we are defining skeletal features of Elliott Wave's impulsive plots, namely downward impulsive waves 1, 3 and 4, and upward, corrective waves 2 and 4.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
TRADING PEARL - $GBPUSD:

Over the years, I have developed several methods or rules that are NOT taught by the authors of underlying patterns. Here, in this particular case, the author of EW, or any of its current teachers, have ever said this, but I have personally fond that running a line from point-2 and extending it along the impulse in a manner of a resistance trendline (or inversely, if the pattern was inverted, in the manner of a supportive trendline), then the CROSSING of this line will define the nascence of its 4-wave, in a manner that is quasi-symmetrical, as is shown by the span created between points 3 and 4 as the corrective Wave-4 completes ... This should help YOU approximate where Wave-4 might end.

Kapish? I hope so. This was one of many pearls I will drop here and there.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
30 MAR 2015 - Update:

Watch for this potential symmetrical projection:


snapshot



Remember the trading pearl regarding the point-2 line projection off of the EW? Here, this same pearl applies, wherein Point-4 is potentially defined in the vicinity illustrated in the chart - Overall, we are still looking at a potential decline with an intermediate geometric indulgence.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
20 MAR 2015 - update:

Here is a perfect example illustrating the strength of higher frame (here H4) relative to smaller frame (here M15) ... While the model correctly defined a probable bullish strength (dashed orange arrow), focusing on the background geometry offered too narrow a sight on the overall long trade potential. I entered at arrow and closed at Point-4, but a pure model-based trade would have offered the opportunity to lock in a bit more profit. Still, profit is profit, so no harm here.


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
26 MAR 2015 - GBPUSD

I may have found a potential WW. I have studied your lessons and applied it to this geometry. Your feedback is important.
Im obliged!

R
Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO Pip_Alchemist
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
Morning @Pip_Alchemist ... now, we're talking!

David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@Pip_Alchemist - I would remove all of the "supply" and "demand" simply because that is what YOU know, and this is powerful bias. I do the same with most of my charting, where I use a free MT4 account to do all of my charting in which I remove all of my predictive/forecasting model whenever I apply these or other geometries.

If you preemptively know that orders might lay dormant at a certain level, it becomes very difficult to not align a geometry with it, and in such a case, the bias (selection bias) becomes stronger than reason.

Plus, it looks easier for others to see the pattern.

By the way you drew a AWW in your field, now that I look at it closely - More on this later, too.


David
+3 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
@David - It is challenging to remove ones bias because one wants to apply all their knowledge onto one chart. And if there are confluences with geometry then its difficult to ignore them.

Originally my target was a lot lower based on what I know (bias). However after spotting this WW I see the potential for a smaller TP3 which I have adjusted (I am currently short).

If I were to remove these zones and eliminate my bias. Then would I enter a trade based on bullish activity on wave 5, 5'? Thus having no limit orders?

R
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
@Pip_Alchemist - The topic of cognitive behavior is a fantastic domain worth exploring, but one that I strive to adapt to, simply because hindsight has produced a lot of lessons.

I build patterns off of a free MT4 account simply because of this punitive interference, which filters out all that I would have needed to know after the fact, yet leaving in all that is blurring my mind's eyes before the fact - The geometries by their own merit.

Plus, I could write on and on about the so called supply and demand, which is completely artificial in Forex, but that would be for another time and place. Let's simply say that at the Retail level, we are submitting ourselves to larger organisms whose price-moving apparatus cannot submit itself to the laws of supply and demand, simply because this would require a free moving price within a fluid, free moving market,, which Forex is not ... And that is in fact how the model depends so much on these foreseeable principles for its own accuracy.

Again, a totally different topic for another time, but for the sake of making it less challenging to be biased, I would recommend any student of the market - that includes you and me and everyone else for the life of our trading activities - to denude own's one mind of a-priori knowledge and abandon prior assumptions, and let your brain - not the "interfering you" or "interfering me" filter out "behind our backs" geometries that stand on their own.

For example, the target that got hit at its tip-top in $NZDJPY represents two chart set up, one with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, and one with the geometry. What I already knew was the Model's target off of my software. What I did not know was the evolving price, weaving into a WW, which could have turned around at the 1-3 Line, but it did not. Instead, it went the way of the Model, but had I not erased the Model's target, I would not have allowed the geometry to add its own independent statement of reversal at or near what the other charting software had called in the same vicinity.

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Plus, it's always a fast learning and ingraining activity to let the geometry burn its own emblem on the cortices of the mind, as it will tend to jump at the trader's mind's eye faster, and speak louder than any other artifices out there. That is the extent to which I would let price lead me.

As stated before, the Model defines targets outside of the price field, so that remains my go-to tool, as it ignores price per se, assuming that price is the mere shadow projection onto a price-field canvas, from a camera that beams the real image of the market's true intentions.

Love the discussion, since it is at the core of market manipulations, but again, another time and place. Go to go.

Talk to you later. Will stay connected via my mobile device, sporadically.


David
+5 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
MARKET MANIPULATION - Why "Supply" and "Demand" Are Erroneous Concepts In the Entire Financial markets ...
... Simply put, there isn't such a thing ... Following are well-circulated article/video that should dispel that notion of supply and demand ... Read on


HOW THE ENTIRE MARKET IS RIGGED:

Talking about market manipulation - Here is a statement from the Financial Industry Regulatory Agency (FINRA) statement today, reflecting this very ludicrous issue of supply and demand, just released:

- https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/581598486514266112/photo/1

In essence, when the supply and the demand comes out of the same hand, then the mere idea of a free market flow, or even at its simplest "free market concept" becomes unthinkable, and further obviates the need to even make such reference as supply side and demand side.

In the case of the Forex market, where price is NOT moving by the whims or desires of the retail side (which in a free market would fill each sides of the supply and demand orders), but is instead moving because of unilateral and asymmetrical market players that maintain the controlling advantage of knowing the general trading positions of the M15-to-H4 retail side.

Where a daily to weekly move matters at the institutional level, it leaves the larger players a large amplitude of moves over which it can create its own "inner" market directions and spreads, without offsetting the directional intentions at the larger scale - This is where and how retail side of the Forex market moves, and this is also where and how the Predictive/Forecasting Model can detect the direction, strength, plat future R/S levels via its numerical/quantitative (TG-1, TG-2, ... etc.) targets and define tip-top or bottom-tip reversal levels via its nominal/qualitative ("TG-Lo, TG-Hi, TGLox, TG-Hix) targets.


HOW THE STOCK MARKET IS RIGGED:

- How The Big Players Manipulate The Stock Market
(Source: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2918951-g-hudson/1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market )
Note: Jim Cramer video has been erased within that article's link, but I have another link below ... Watch that video and see how the supply and the demand are one and the same side even in stocks.

Video - Jim Cramer: "Market Manipulation Is A Fact" ... here is how his company did it:
- https://www.google.com/search?q=market+manipulation+Jim+Cramer&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
(Source: Google any video with words "Jim + Cramer + market + manipulation")


HOW THE FOREX MARKET IS RIGGED:

"Forex manipulation: How it worked"
(Source - CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101482959 - November 2014)


OVERALL:

Overall, and to take a much larger position, all that the retail trader is being taught is mere inculcation of behaviors that will help the Pavlovian trader explain to himself why such and such a thing happen, and simply narrow absurd market action into over-simplistic and puerile explanation.

For instance, Welles Wilder himself explains that Bullish Divergences belong to a declining market and Bearish Divergences to a rising market, yet I see over and over again the inverse instructions offered by the very institutions where the trader not only receives his lesson, but from which he opens an account. How to better draw an analogy if not that of a cow would believes it is roaming freely in the pastures, where in fact all tracks lead to the slaughter house?

As I have said before, over and over:

"Price is a carrot that dangles at the hand of a stick which is held by institutional hands"

What I strive to teach, or perhaps impart, even in its smallest degree of relevance, is that the retail trader should abandon classic market notions of supply and demand, and not regard the market as a balancing act between buyers and sellers, but FIRST realize that both are ONE and the SAME.

SECOND, learn that this predominant fact should help simplify anyone's trading, since there is not one heterogeneous market psychology, but a single predictable move whose footprints in the snow can be seen, and the animal's direction, hence pace and intention, discerned.

In such a reverse mindset, that animal is the rabbit, and you, my friends are the lone wolf.


David
+4 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
@David - I must thank you for your generosity by sharing and parting with your knowledge and experience. I am under 1 year young in trading and I feel I have gained years of experience with the knowledge that you share! My prayers and thoughts towards you are of the highest regard!

R
+2 Reply
MarkStevenson Pip_Alchemist
here, here! I'm a novice but honestly I read and reread your posts daily. thank you!
+3 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
@David - I am also fascinated by the battle between logic and the ego. Its a daily battle a trader faces on a daily basis!

R
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
@Pip_Alchemist - It's the daily conflict between intuitive knowledge and deep-seeded, interfering fears. Great reads on neuro-cognitive behavior ... Should be part of any advanced trader's library - David
+2 Reply
rv Pip_Alchemist
@Pip_Alchemist - Hence, the greatest opponent, as they say.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
02 APR 2015 - Update:

Just as in a first high-school kiss, the geometry is willing, but price is fretting.

Here, the geometry has laid down a probable pathway, comprised of a pending Point-5 within a potential Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves (ww.WolfeWave.com) pattern as price completes a larger Elliott Wave's 5-point impulse geometry.


snapshot



David Alcindor

=====================

TECH-NOTE:

Although a background geometric rationale exists in the potential Wolfe Wave, inclusing its perfect "Tunneling" and superimposition with an Elliott Wave 5-point impulse completion, it does not mean that it will unfold this way. Still, this is getting clear and intentional, it seems.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
02 APR 2015 - Update:

Just as in a first high-school kiss, the geometry is willing, but price is fretting.

Here, the geometry has laid down a probable pathway, comprised of a pending Point-5 within a potential Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves (ww.WolfeWave.com) pattern as price completes a larger Elliott Wave's 5-point impulse geometry.


snapshot




David Alcindor

=====================

TECH-NOTE:

Although a background geometric rationale exists in the potential Wolfe Wave, inclusing its perfect "Tunneling" and superimposition with an Elliott Wave 5-point impulse completion, it does not mean that it will unfold this way. Still, this is getting clear and intentional, it seems.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPUSD eyes Predictive Model's 1.44396, lining with background geo; Watch alternate 1-4 Lines:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP
----------


snapshot




David Alcindor

=============================

TECH-NOTE:

Watch for this dual 1-4 Line. It appears that the geo anchor is simply too far up to make the upper 1-4 Line a valid target. I would look to the lower one as a higher-probability target.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $NZDJPY:


Here is another one submitting to the same 1-3-5 points (completed pattern up above).

Do you see where price consistently falls at the completion of that fifth points? If not, simply draw a line extending from points 1 and 4:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$NZDJPY:

... Is this one coming to sight too?


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$GBPJPY ...

... And how about this 1-4 Line for target?


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
$NZDJPY ...

... Therefore, based on the known behavior of this geometry, here is what is probable:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
20 MAR 2015 - Update:

This has been by far the most interesting trade ... And it keeps on getting more and more interesting, per recent development of an internal geometry (black) which may or may not send price towards its won smaller 1-4 Line prior to completing a gasping rallying towards the nominal target at 91.889, defined this past January 30th, 2015 - Following is the updated statement on the original chart:

================
From Twitter/
LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY untangles from geometric interplay; Nears 91.889 target from 30 JAN 2015

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
================


Thanks!

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY hit 91.889 target; Possible double top, but expecting reversal here:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor

====================

Tech-Note:

At this point, I would be very careful about a SHORT entry. The larger background geometry offers a great opp to go SHORT, and the probability of further advance has greatly diminished.

In my experience, aside from the background geometry, the Predictive/Forecasting Model will tend to give a nominal target that aims for a reversal level, whereby price will tend to form a consolidation move, and one that is typically symmetrically wound around that level. So, a wait and see is not too ill-advised at this point.

Lots of pips earned on the way down (I was taken out on the formation of Point-4, but re-entered for more pips than would have been earned in a straighter move, but at this level, the 1-4 Line is lurking down below, like the pin-hole size of a swimming pool from the view point of an acrobatic circus diver.

The difference here is that there is no aiming. Just waiting to hit that 1-4 Line.

Se you there.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
25 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY continues to reverse after it tip-toed on target; Reversing as forecast; Bearish:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $JPY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor

==================

TECH-NOTE:

Here, the same expectation as in $NZDUSD applies, except that price faces little to no appreciable hurdles ahead by a mere visual sweep.

Price level of Point-3 of the larger pattern from which price is reacting was the line I would use for a short entry, while still keeping Point-5 as the stop-loss.

Lurking far below is the 2-4 Line of the larger geometry, and this is likely to impose its own R/S force if and once we get there.

Overall, the geometry is moving as forecast, but only once a nadir has completed with the current price decline from Point-5 that we should be assured of the bearish intention of this pair. For now, it is only compliant to the pattern at its beginning, but not deliberately promising anything else than the faint beginning of a geometric adherence.

Price confirmation is what we need, and that will happen if and once price carves a lower low, rises without carving a new high, and then breaks that relative low - This is how I would define a conservative directional confirmation.


David
+2 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $NZDUSD:

This pair ended up reaching the bottom-most target at 0.72656, but its adherence to the geometry became too convoluted. So, I decided to let it rest a bit ... Still resting, and we will revisit this one later on:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
rv 4xForecaster
22 MAR 2015 - $NZDUSD:
(H1)
Potential retracement before advance.

Hello David, if you don't mind, adding a shorter time frame chart, with a potential retracement before advance. Any format changes or requirements for uniformity, please tell. thank you

Triple top potential, at longer horizontal resistance. Symmetric Wolfe Waves 5 converging lines, at Fib projection confluence.
Potential Overthrow to 5' and/or 5'' at parallel lines(?), Entry-validation could be either after overthrow and re-entry(1), or passing the 3 point mark or(and) wedge brake_out(2), also depending on the timing of the reaction.
Following the above validation characteristics, first potential retracement to 61.8% at 0.74564, following the path of previous retracements(repetition), and reaching for the larger falling Geometric lower bound(1-3-5), while (1-4) Line is at lower levels.
RSI double top characteristics.

regards.
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+3 Reply
Hello @river_54 - Beautiful.

This triple-top is called a "Kiss-of-Death", which consists of:

1 - A SMALLER parabolic path, here from 1 to to via a small depression

and

2 - A LARGER parabola, here from 2 to 3, supported by a background geometry that forecasts a reversal at its point-5.


ABOUT THE BACKGROUD GEOMETRY:

You have:

1 - The 5-point plot
2 - The tunneling
3 - The 1-4 Line projection
5 - The DOWNWARD projection of the 1-3 Line + 2-4 Line convergence point, which OFTEN points to the point where price might return (approximation)
6 - RSI at a relative historical top (for this timeframe)


WHAT I WOULD ADD FOR MY OWN TRADING - just an educational point here, not a recommendation:

1 - Entry limit (i.e.: pending order) to go short at the KoD's 1-2 Line
2 - Stop-Loss defined at 1.131-Fibonacci using points 1 and the nadir (lowest low) of KoD
3 - Partial exit at level of Point-4 of the 5-point geometry
4 - Full exit at the 1-4 Line validation, seeking correspondance with a significant Fibonacci value, such as 0.618, 0.786 or 0.886


INTERNAL USE OF THE BACKGROUND GEOMETRY:

1 - In order to seek added confirmation in the completion of the 5-point geometry, or WW, see whether its points 1 and 2 project to any significant Fibonacci extension levels, such as 1.131, 1.272, 1.414, 1.500, 1.618, 1.786, or 1.886 - These are what most institutional systems seem to attain before reversals, as they go after Stop-Loss positions ABOVE both patterns.
2 - Look for a CONVERGENCE of Fibonacci numbers, using the SAME extension values (1.131, 1.272, 1.414, ... and rarely 1.500, 1.618) for points 3 and 5 of the WW
3 - See which of Fib Extensions line up the closes, and DRAW a RECTANGLE that HIGHLIGHTS both levels.
4 - PLACE your stop loss ABOVE your highest values 9i.e.: furthest away from your entry level) PLUS add the SPREAD of the Forex pair or underlying trading element, based on YOUR institutionally defined spread, which varies greatly between banks (which is one of the MANY reasons I never give any specific value as to what a SL should be for any other traders than myself).
5 - Once entered, remove your chart from sight, make some tea, take your significant other for a hike, but do NOT ever touch that trade. The geometry will take care of it. If not, it would only be because no geo is 100% - I do not know what the % is for this WW, but I can say that it might possibly be the HIGHEST to reverse at the pre-defined leve, here at its Point-5, which lines up with the KoD.

Again, beautiful, and above reasons are why I find it so.

Excellent work.

David
+8 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Great stuff both River and David...thanks for sharing.
+3 Reply
rv 4xForecaster
Hello David, thank you for the response and detailed reply and information regarding the setup and internal use. Something to ask, what is the most attractive partial/full exit for the KoD pattern regarding geo position and/or fib ? Thanks again.
+2 Reply
Hello @river_54 - I am not sure I understand your question - David
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rv 4xForecaster
Hello @ David - I meant to ask, what is (if there exists one) a proper take profit target for a standalone KoD pattern ?
Thanks
+1 Reply
rv rv
@ David - Also, What is your view on the validity of passing point 3, in a WW, as an added conformation(as per Bill Wolfe). Many thanks
+1 Reply
Hello @river_54 - I am not fmamiliar with what Bill Wolfe has to say about Point-3.

In my observations, Point-3 becomes relevant as a TP level IF and ONLY IF price moves beyond Point-5 (as opposed to validating and reversing off of Point-5) and causes this adverse excursion (i.e.: price moving against and away from your expected level of entry) to define new, but RELEVANT levels of reversals, such as the 5-prime and the 5-second levels.

I will highlight this as another WW Pearl, you will see why in the explanation below:


=============================
WW PEARL:

In my own rules, which I have detailed in prior discussions about this geometry:

1 - Line 1-4 becomes the TP target IF AND ONLY IF price reverses from Point-5

2 - Price level of Point-4 becomes the TP target IF AND ONLY IF price reverses off of Point-5-prime (5')

AND

3 - Pirce level of Point-3 becomes the TP target IF AND ONLY IF price reverses off of Point-5-second (5'')


This is pretty much a stiff rule I like to respect. If the position size of the trader permits, then rule #2 and #3 can represent partial exits and the 1-4 Line could represent a full exit.

HOWEVER, as in the case of the 1.414-Fibonacci, which represents price moving short of the 1.618 in a counter-aggressive market, I assume that the attainment of levels greater than Point-5 (as in 5' or 5'') reflect either very volatile market (implying some level of uncontrolled randomness, to which I do NOT adhere), or more probably that the market is aggressive towards that level, and therefore will FAIL to reverse all the way down to the 1-4 Line, but instead will seek intermediate levels in Point-4 from 5', or Point-3 from 5'', as natural alternative developments of the geometry.

=============================



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
rv 4xForecaster
Hello @David - thanks for the detailed response. I remember, reading a paper of his that, from point 5, or the 'sweet zone', when price passes or equals(point 3) you have a completed wave, and expectations are for 1-4 Line. I ll try to dig it up. Thanks
+1 Reply
@river_54 - By all means, feel free to post anything that others could read as well - David
+1 Reply
Hello @river_54: This is definitely a great question, and a pearl for the KoD:


=========================
* * * KoD PEARL * * *

I would see NO GREATER THAN a 0.618-Fibonacci retracement level for a Take-Profit, once the triple top/bottom completes the KoD.

Very often, price will move on beyond that level, but the probability lessens as price moves lower than that first Fib level.
=========================

Thank you for asking. Hope this helps others as well.

David Alcindor
+5 Reply
rv 4xForecaster
Hello @ David. You welcome!. Ok, got you. Sometimes, I have seen you referring to a KoD reversal, if successful, as near "terminal". (maybe time-wise as well..)
Another question, regarding trend continuation, would you assign a high significance(or if any), when price breaks a well defined KoD with authority, versus when it makes a successful counter trend-reversal ? thank you
+1 Reply
@river_54 - Not sure what you are asking here. Can you elaborate or perhaps post a chart?

David
+1 Reply
rv 4xForecaster
Hello @David. Sure. Sorry for not being clear, a picture is better. A chart of USDTRY, very strong steady uptrend, reached a high and formed a KoD like formation. There are some expectations for a reversal and a counter trend move, but the price after a small correction, heads back up, breaking the pattern and staying above it with a weekly close. Would this be, a significant 'tell' for an up_trend continuation or irrelevant at this point ? Thanks

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+1 Reply
@river_54 - I am not seeing the pattern being broken at any point of its construction. Perhaps you are referring to the to's and fro's following point-3 in your chart?

A KoD can only have 5 points:

1 - The 1-2-3 alignment, which in my view can be tolerable up to 1.131-Fibonacci extension from its Point-2 to the large parabolic apex

AND

2 - The smaller parabolic apex between points 1 and 2 representing one of the 5 critical points of this overall 5-point geometry, and the larger parabolic apex, representing the other.

Price will move up and down, and IF you pre-defined a Point-3, but a new height was attained beyond that Point-3, it STILL remains a KoD with a NEW Point-3 at that new attainment IF AND ONLY IF the 1.131-Fibonacci extension between Point-2 and the Apex of the larger parabola remains intact ... Some other times, i have seen it go up to 1.272, and even 1.414, but at that point, I would have lost interest and protected my hazelnuts.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
rv 4xForecaster
Hello @David, a hypothetical question..
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iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. Does this qualify as a KoD? Price broke above the 1.131-Fibonacci extension but did not close above it so that condition is still valid. Are there any other aspects of the price action/geometry which could indicate the probability of the KoD developing as charted below?
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+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - Exactly right on both counts: 1) KoD and 2) 1.131-Fib, i.e.: I would not seek any higher than 1.272-Fib for a SL.

The top-most price (1.555) in your field spike is an Elliott Wave's 4th correction, and the ensuing decline is a termination of the entire EW bearish impulse at the 5th. It then moved on to a series of corrective zig-zags, from which the KoD emerged.

If you consider the height of the spike following the EW 5th wave relative to the height of the larger parabola, this happens to fit a bullish geometry as well - See following chart:

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If you followed my recent postings of the GBPUSD, you might probably have noticed that I was trying to fit such geometry TOO soon ... I did this as I tried to see whether my rule of geo relative to the incomplete EW impulse remains valid, which it did. In essence, the ideal geometry will occur ONLY AFTER a thorough completion of the EW IMP - This is NOT a rule from Mr. Bill Wolfe, since on his introductory features of the Wolfe Wave, he declares that there is no need to use any indicator, Elliott Wave (EW) or any other tools, which I happen to disagree in so far as remaining aware of the EW will likely eliminate ALL possibilities of building a LESSER PROBABILITY geometry during the unfinished development of an EW IMP, and that most - if not all - HIGH-Probability geo should be considered ONLY in the course of a correction, ideally at the level of an EW correction (COR) following the termination of a EW 5th wave.

Any how, this appear that the KoD, which itself results from a consolidation, as well as a BULLISH geo is occurring at this point.


David
+1 Reply
This level is very interesting. If it breaks we can have confirmed double bottom. KoD and WW to the downside and neckline to the upside
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+2 Reply
Hello @nikokoev - I am not sure I am able to see the KoD and WW you are referring to. Would you be able to bring a chart up?

David
+1 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Hello David! The KoD and WW are from river_54`s chart. On my chart I was just want to show, that at this level could have confirmation on double bottom formation.
+1 Reply
30 APR 2015
@David
Unfortunately I spotted this WW a bit late. I believe it follows all the rules i.e tunnelling, anchor point, converging TLs.
My question is how likely is price going to test the geo on a break of 2-4 line? What would be a good entry at this point or is it too late in regards to risk reward in pips?
Many thanks
R
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD - KoD remained < 1.131 #fibonacci; Opens to bearish 0.73729 target via WW:

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@tradingview $NZD $USD #forex
-----------


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David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
23 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note: KoD and WW:


KoD:

See how the KoD kept its 1.131-Fibonacci distance relative to its triple top formation. This is the level that I would aim for a SL. As long as price remains clear of that level (i.e.: does not break-above, closes above), then there is nothing to fear.


WW:

Now, off to the WW. There is a significant amount of distance between current level and Point-4. It is my understanding that Mr. Bill Wolfe would maintain a target at the 1-4 Line, based on his introduction to the pattern on his page (www.WolfeWave.com). However, my rules are based on my own empirical experience of the pattern, and reflect a less aggressive TP target IF and only IF price tends to excurse adversely and posts such exotic points as the 5-prime (5') and the 5-second (5''), such that:

1 - If price reverses from Point-5, then the 1-4 Line remains the TP target,;
2 - If price reverses from Point-5', then price level of Point-4 becomes the TP target;
3 - If price reverses from Point-5'', then price level of Point-3 becomes the TP target.

In this case, price appears to have reached 5-prime. Therefore, price level of Point-4 = 0.73729 becomes the Take-Profit (TP) level of interest.

Hope this makes sense to you all,

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
One more KoD on 5 min chart.
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+1 Reply
Hello @nikokoev - Did the pattern follow through?

Would you be able to post what happened to it in subsequent frames?

David
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Here is what happens then.
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Unfortunately I dont have 1.131 fib extension on my tool. It was really intersting for me to see is this stop-hunting move reach that fib level.
+1 Reply
nikokoev nikokoev
There was similar move on EURUSD.
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stop-hunting I mean
+1 Reply
@nikokoev - I am not sure i see this one as clearly as the one you posted earlier - David
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
This one I was post earlier.
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+1 Reply
Thank you @nikokoev - A great example of a failed pattern ... Which is why I place by Fibonacci at 1.131.

You mentioned that you did not have the Fibonacci tool in your chart. If you turned to trading tools, you could easily use the extension scale by simply plotting the 1.131 value in the Fibonacci tool. Let me know if you have any trouble with this, as we can add this topic to this thread.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
I have Fibonacci tool, but I can't add 1.131 level on it.
+1 Reply
Format > Style > enter any Fib level > make sure box for level is checked next to Fib level just entered > make sure "levels" at bottom right of field is checked > option to check "prices" ... Done.

David
+3 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Thank you David! I successfully added the level on fib retracemant tool. Don't have spare box in fib extension tool.
+1 Reply
nikokoev nikokoev
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Is this correct way to measure the level?
+1 Reply
@nikokoev - Now, you will also see that from your 1.061-low to 1.088-high, a 1.414-FE projection will now point to your 1.100-top as well.

MORALE of the story = As most traders concentrate on the 1.618-Fib, the institutions are taking profit one-notch lower on the FE scale.

David
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Ha! Thank you David!
+2 Reply
@nikokoev - When you use the 1.131, 1.272 or the 1.414 target, always expect price to "resonate' around that level. You will often see price oscillate in equal distances above and below and back above again at that particular level (typically the 1.414).

In contrast, you will see less of this oscillating activity occur at firmer levels, such as 1.618.

The reasons for this variation are many, but if you consider that price do not, will not and never did move because of retail side, but instead, because of institutional order placements, then it becomes easier to conceptualize that all movements in Forex (as well as other large automated markets) will continue to move at the precise levels that correspond to institutional needs, and not individual desires.

We are the potato pickers, and the tower standing above our head demands to be fed by our imaginative delusion of ever sitting at that lofty table.

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Well said David! Like always.
+1 Reply
@nikokoev - The pattern behaved exactly as expected: From the triple-base (here, triple-top), it turned around and produced a minimum of 0.618-Fibonacci retracement. In your particular example, price rolled from about 0.76700 to 0.76400, which also represents a prior R/S level (to the left of the price field).

Very nice!

Note that I was first introduced to the pattern by Jason Stapleton, when I had joined his group ("MasterMind") a few years back. This is a good pattern to add to your armamentarium.

David Alcindor
+5 Reply
nikokoev nikokoev
On dayli we have very precise confirmation on the broken neckline.
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Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
03 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD completed forecast geo at point-4; Bullish targets per Rredictive Model waiting:

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@tradingview $NZD $USD
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David Alcindor

======================

TECH-NOTE:

Since our last porting on 23 MAR, price fell as forecast, aiming for the level of Point-4 and NOT the 1-4 Line, as per my Offset-Rule, whereby an adverse excursion from the 1-3 Line will create an ectopic Point-5 at Point-5' (point 5 prime), and thus offset the geometric target from the 1-4 Line to now the level of Point-4. Similarly, an ectopic Point05 at Point-5'' (point five second) will create a same geometric offset, namely a target that should budge from the expected 1-4 Line to level of Point-3 - This rule does NOT exclude a potential furthering of price to its oroginal 1-4 Line intention, but for the purpose of safe practice in trading, these targets become sound, safe and consistent when compared to the weakened 1-4 Line target probability.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
25 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD moves as forecast; Breaks thru floor; 1-3 Line as next support; 0.73729 in force:

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@tradingview $NZD $USD
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David Alcindor

=====================

Tech-Note:

Background pattern appears to be the force mobilizing price to the forecast 0.73729 level, corresponding to Point-4 of the overall geometry, based on the Adverse Excursion Rules. The real hurdle at this point is not so much the structure which the R/S levels had carved out to the left of the pattern, but what is coming up next: The structure itself.

Very often, the level corresponding to Point-3 can impose a time-consumptive force on the declining price, or even "trap" price into a back-and-forth consolidation pattern either within or right outside the confines of the 1-3 and 2-4 Lines.

Ideally, price would fall through this 1-3/2-4 system like a warm cobblestone through powder snow, and bounce to validate the underbelly of the 1-4 Line as a signal of short entry. If the market is eager to fall, this simple scenario might occur sooner than later. But first and foremost, let us see how the 1-3 Line (Bullish entrenchment) behaves for now.


David
+3 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $USDCAD:

Here too, the ultimate 1.26965 target was reached, and price ended up meandering about it, but the geometry was simply not relevant to the predictive analysis. Still worth following ... Typically, I would erase the whole thing and go back to the drawing board ONCE the predictive/forecasting model starts spewing out new targets.

I am willing to wait.


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@Takefal - Looking at your chart:

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What i would seek to do when preempting a 1-4 Line is to look at any structures within the pattern that may lend a support/resistance, or better yet an anchor to that 1-4 Line - Here is how it would look like, when passed at that mid-segment anchor, between Point2 and Point-3, which are often the most geometrically complex, in terms of intervening zig-zags:


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Is this answering your questions?


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
This "anchor" in the line 1-4, must always be between point 2 and point 3 or may be between point 1 and point 2 as I assumed?
+3 Reply
@takefal - Best is to look for geometric recency - Anything occurring over points 2 and 3 will offer "fresher" levels from which to establish a forward-going geometry. In contrast, anything that occurred between points 1 and 2 would rarely matter, as it would be absorbed, discounted or simply erased by the evolution of the 2-3 Line as the market reacts to what occurred immediately before it - hence, "recency".


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
Thank you for your detailed answers, I find it very useful and will determine my future searches.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@takefal - The ONLY reason I have chosen that anchor point between points 2 and 3 is because price has NOT yet moved significantly higher to confirm that what you wrote as point-4 is indeed the 4th point of the geometry ... This means that price could still be going lower, but in this case, it would risk to invalidate the whole system.

If and once price breaks ABOVE the bar that defined its low as Point-4, then I would definitely consider this point-4 as valid.

Great job finding this one out. I was already trading it on my account, with a TP at the level of Point-4 ... It might be going higher, but that target would give me time to take on profits and prepare for a reversal at point-5.

A more conservative LONG entry would be to simply wait for price to break-above, close above the bar that defined point-4, and set a SL at Point-4 plus spread.


David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
CORRECTION - I meant to say TP at Point-3, as price continues to rally towards that level - David
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
16 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDCAD hit target at 1.21656; Per Off-Set Rule, geo target lowered to level of Pt-3 from 5'':

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$USD $CAD #FED #BOC
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David Alcindor

======================

TECH-NOTE:

While the Predictive/Forecasting Model went ahead and got its first numerical target hit, the geo did NOT move up to the anticipated level of Point-4 from its 5-prime (5') position per the "Off-Set Rule", but instead carved out a lower related point at 5-second (5''). However, by that same "Off-Set Rule", the new target is now the level of Point-3, being off-set by one geometric level below, relative to the prior Point-4.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - $USDCHF:

If you recall, we nailed this one right before it fell like a rock (here:
Nearing Resistance Per Wolfe Waves | $USD $CHF $XAU #forex
), and again as it rallied (here:
Bulls Are Being #Franc, Pushing Back In Earnest $CHF $USD #forex
).

At this point, we are poising to close our eyes and open our mind to nascent geometries.

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Am I seeing any?

No.


Am I tryi