SimBios

TREND CHANGE?!?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
258 0 1
After 1 year of short movement did we hit the bottom from now?

If we look at the fall of Euro             in 2008 and 2009 it was shorter in time compared with the 2014 down movement. This last down movement has been long and profitable but maybe its time has ended. Is it a reversal? Let's see.

From 2008 till now the Euro             movements didn't broke the draw channel (red) and had respected S/R from previous years (just a few in blue).
The 2014 down movement has just hit the down end of the channel.
This area is a S/R from 2003 (green arrow).
From around 1.1 area we started to see banks and news saying that the Euro             would go to parity and it was a good short, about 300days after down movement.
From the previous point everyone and is cat is shorting the Euro             .
After March 2015 we didn't get any more LL.
American elections are in the horizon.
The majority of European countries are slowly recovering.
American economy is not as good as they pretend to be.
Last economical news from the US were disappointing reinforcing the last point.

So, based on the previews points, i closed all my long term shorts and became neutral.
I've been trading the small up movement from this week bad news but i'm only deciding if i'll go short or long after it breaks the S/R area.
My opinion is that in the short term it will go up to 1.1, range there and then became a long term upper movement.

Don't forget, trade with your rules and thoughts. This is only opinions and not guidelines!
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