EUR/USD - Break below 1.1196 exposes daily 200-MA

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Support - 1.1196, 1.1144, 1.11

Resistance - 1.1236, 1.1301, 1.1342

  • Euro's rejection at confluence of technical resistance at 1.1301 followed by a break below 1.1236 (38.2% of 1.0463-1.1714) if results in a 4-hour/day end closing below 1.1196 (38.2% of 1.0517-1.1616) would signal a drop to daily 200-MA level of 1.11.
  • Moreover, close below 1.1196 would also mark a close below rising trend line support.
  • On the other hand, bearish invalidation is seen only if prices see a day end closing above 1.1301.

Had noted yesterday after Fed in a post that failure to close above 1.1296 could result in a drop to 1.1236
Thank you interesting view.
Here is mine:

TipTVFinance mgiuliani
@mgiuliani Nice. I had a cypher on daily about a month ago
mgiuliani TipTVFinance
Thank you.
We would expect EUR/USD to drop 2.50/3.00% in the event of a Brexit. The EUR/USD rate has moved about 20% as much as GBP/USD in reaction to the most recent poll releases. The target is positioned @ 1.0974. As we mentioned we believe that if there is a Brexit next week, the euro would not to behave as a safe heaven, but rather to see the euro under big pressure on fear of further discord with the region.
TipTVFinance mgiuliani
Brexit or not I guess Euro is poised to fall. If there is Brexit, EUR/USD too would feel the heat. If there is no Brexit, sharp unwinding of GBP shorts against EUR (EUR/GBP drop) would weigh over EUR/USD.
Even EUR/GBP is near potential reversal zone of 0.80
mgiuliani TipTVFinance
Yes, I agree also on EUR/GBP

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