Resistance - 1.1236, 1.1301, 1.1342
- Euro's rejection at confluence of technical resistance at 1.1301 followed by a break below 1.1236 (38.2% of 1.0463-1.1714) if results in a 4-hour/day end closing below 1.1196 (38.2% of 1.0517-1.1616) would signal a drop to daily 200-MA level of 1.11.
Had noted yesterday after Fed in a post that failure to close above 1.1296 could result in a drop to 1.1236
We would expect EUR/USD to drop 2.50/3.00% in the event of a Brexit. The EUR/USD rate has moved about 20% as much as GBP/USD in reaction to the most recent poll releases. The target is positioned @ 1.0974. As we mentioned we believe that if there is a Brexit next week, the euro would not to behave as a safe heaven, but rather to see the euro under big pressure on fear of further discord with the region.