Kumowizard

EURUSD - The question of reversal and MACD divergences

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
130 0 2
There is a nice new running topic about possible local             bottom and positive MACD divergences in EURUSD:
EURUSD - Sep2011 - Nov2014 divergences

I read the comments and decided to check my model how it really looks, and give some indication about possible counter trend reversals.
For info, the 4 Hrs chart this time is for illustration only, no purpose of giving any bullish trade idea or recommendation. The arrows drawn are pure guessing now, just random idea of one possible scenario. If any time I see real signals to trade CT             Longs, I will publish in a different topic.

Daily: The major trend is bearish . All Ichimoku averages point down, 1, 2750             is becoming the most important support for the bears. And yes, there might be a few interesting patterns here, but these are under development! So it may be a positive divergence in MACD , but that we'll know for sure only when the bullish cross happens again at higher point than the previous one, and let's say Price doesn't go a lot further. I found another possible pattern: a possible bullish wedge , but again, it will be valid only when it breaks on the top side. Then it can bring some correction. Otherwise you can't exclude Price dips further and kills the chance for this pattern.

4 Hrs: Let's have a look at the lower time frame, where I do the swing trades. Right now everything is bearish: Ichimoku , DMI-ADX and Slow Stoch . I don't see even one single problem with indicators. All the rest is just guessing. Maybe the first thing to watch carefully is if Price makes a lower low or not? If not, and Slow Stoch turns back up from oversold, then you can buy some, keeping in mind that's still just bottom fishing.
You can already see where the real counter trend break and go long signal could come in the futre. As time is passing, averages are coming lower, and the 100 WMA + future Kumo already gives an indication. Let's have pure guessing of just one alternative, not a trade idea or recommendation: immagine there will be no lower low and Price reverses from 1,2375-1,2400, then probably the entry time will come somewhere between 1,2490 - 1,2545, in case all signals line up and momentum changes too.
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