Nearly Surely, FED would keep the rate at current level, what we should care is the tone in the Statement : Dovish or Hawkish or Neutral Hawkish.
In my opinion, The percentage of each option is:
25%Dovish 50% Neutral Hawkish 25% Hawkish
If the Statement is Dovish. Sell everything having USD.
If the Statement is Neutral Hawish . Also SELL everything having USD because market expects the Hawkish.
If the Statement is Hawkish. BUY selected pairs having Dollar.
Thus, 75% USD would be SOLD tomorrow, but I really want to see the HAWK.
I feel so bored about the DOVE, I dislike the DOVE, I don't want to see the DOVE anymore.
Unfortunately, FED Chairwoman Janet Yellen is a DOVE, her view is so dovish, I cann't change this.
However, let rethink a little bit.
Yellen said that rate will rise this year, but we don't know when.
We just have two chances for a rate hike: September and December.
And FED must prepare for the rate hike decision; this meeting is THE LAST CHANCE TO DO THAT.
IF THEY DON'T SAY DIFFERENT, WE SHOULD ABANDON ANY HOPE FOR A MEANINGFUL DECISION THIS YEAR, AND THE RATE HIKE DECISION SHOULD MOVE TO NEXT YEAR.
Actually, I see FED are under a strong pressure that they must take action this year , FED fear that if they don't hike rate, they just pump more liquidity into Equity bubble, bur if they hike rate, they fear that market and US economy cann't handle that decision.
Janet Yellen must think carefully before giving a right decision.
However, to choose a side, this is my final decision:
- I CHOOSE HAWKISH SIDE. BUY DOLLAR