FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
1
Fundamentals indicate good reason to expect future volatility-$3 billion outflow from Greek banks this week, very real possibility of a Grexit etc...this is backed up by price action as well. In the chart are circled proofs of serious uncertainty. Thus, a possible proposition would be to trade volatility, not direction,eg a put call parity, though this is slightly flawed; a better option here is a proper delta hedged portfolio...in terms of short term trades, we see sort of double tops and tiny Wolfe waves being formed, as such it may be possible to trade these. Short any rises in the EURUSD once the bollinger band width stops increasing and stabilises, exit position when bollinger band width is quite low. Repeat. An indicator that this strategy has expired would be very sharp increases in bollinger band width, and high volumes. The 100 day linear regression shows 100 day trend to be, on the overall, quite flat, very much unlike the short term trends within these 100 days., which, again, implies high volatility. Thus, recurring miniature double tops etc may occur which may be scalped for anew pips here and there very consistently. That being said, Greece is a leech that is thriving off of the blood of the Eurozone, and thus it's capital outflows are negatively impacting European Central Banks etc. Moreover, there is the very real possibility of Greece simply defaulting, which would lead to the unfurling of a number of derivatives in Europe, eg Greek bond CDss, which would be plagued by systemic risk. Thus, fundamentally, it would be prudent to, one long run, short the Euro...and an efficient entry point would be at around the 1.2 level, or in the unlikely case of a very serious upward move, the 1.39 level
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