$EUR v $USD - Nascent Geo Eyes Low, Then High Targets | #euro
QUICK ANALYSIS:
As per recent analyses in $USD major and minor crosses, the unanimous technical voice speaks of a decline in the US Dollar. It would take invalidation events in all of these charts (see today's analyses in $NZDUSD, $USDCAD, $USDCHF $USDMXN, $USDNOK, $USDZAR, as well as $XAUUSD and #USDollar charts where a variety of technical points are tending towards a degradation of the USD, fully understanding that this statement occurs at the week-end of a #Fex statement of a probable rate hike in December).
On a pure technical basis, which is what all of these analyses derive their data (quantitative supplies data to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, whereas proprietary geometries supply the background of high-probability interim moves), the bias supports a rally in the #euro.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The "Model" defined two sequential targets, first a probable moderate decline, followed by a probable rallying, such that:
1 - TG-Hi = 1.13205 - 07 NOV 2015
AND
2 - TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015
-- Note that a prior TG-Hi target (faded yellow i the upper chart) has been invalidated.
GEO:
The Geo is a refinement of the Wolfe Wave, taking into account geometric compensation - See a example provided today in the $GBPAUD here:
- The entire analysis can also be found here: bit.ly/1NAURse )
In this particular chart, it remains a bit premature to define the borders of the Geo. However, combined with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the technical resolution improves significantly, such that the the following outlines appear:
INVALIDATION:
While this speculative analysis hinges on two of my most reliable instruments (Predictive/Forecasting Model at the foreground and proprietary geometries at the background), it remains an exercise of probability, which at this time favors a rallying from, then into the aforementioned values.
For a more concrete invalidation level, I suggest that 1.04613 be regarded as an adverse excursive value to use for such invalidation to occur.
OVERALL:
All $USD analyses completed to this day each pronounce a decline in the US Dollar, by one technical format or another. In addition, antipodean references, such as #gold, $XAUUSD, $JNUG all call for their own strengthening.
A prudent approach would seek invalidation of these analyses in just a few of the posted charts to keep the trader's foot off of an uncertain terrain - Do the due, and consider all this content purely educational.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
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As per recent analyses in $USD major and minor crosses, the unanimous technical voice speaks of a decline in the US Dollar. It would take invalidation events in all of these charts (see today's analyses in $NZDUSD, $USDCAD, $USDCHF $USDMXN, $USDNOK, $USDZAR, as well as $XAUUSD and #USDollar charts where a variety of technical points are tending towards a degradation of the USD, fully understanding that this statement occurs at the week-end of a #Fex statement of a probable rate hike in December).
On a pure technical basis, which is what all of these analyses derive their data (quantitative supplies data to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, whereas proprietary geometries supply the background of high-probability interim moves), the bias supports a rally in the #euro.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The "Model" defined two sequential targets, first a probable moderate decline, followed by a probable rallying, such that:
1 - TG-Hi = 1.13205 - 07 NOV 2015
AND
2 - TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015
-- Note that a prior TG-Hi target (faded yellow i the upper chart) has been invalidated.
GEO:
The Geo is a refinement of the Wolfe Wave, taking into account geometric compensation - See a example provided today in the $GBPAUD here:
In this particular chart, it remains a bit premature to define the borders of the Geo. However, combined with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the technical resolution improves significantly, such that the the following outlines appear:
INVALIDATION:
While this speculative analysis hinges on two of my most reliable instruments (Predictive/Forecasting Model at the foreground and proprietary geometries at the background), it remains an exercise of probability, which at this time favors a rallying from, then into the aforementioned values.
For a more concrete invalidation level, I suggest that 1.04613 be regarded as an adverse excursive value to use for such invalidation to occur.
OVERALL:
All $USD analyses completed to this day each pronounce a decline in the US Dollar, by one technical format or another. In addition, antipodean references, such as #gold, $XAUUSD, $JNUG all call for their own strengthening.
A prudent approach would seek invalidation of these analyses in just a few of the posted charts to keep the trader's foot off of an uncertain terrain - Do the due, and consider all this content purely educational.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----
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Comment:
09 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Looking at the same morphology and adjusting the Predictive/Forecasting Model to the DAILY level, here is what results - Pretty much a similar play as in the 4-hour chart:
David Alcindor
Looking at the same morphology and adjusting the Predictive/Forecasting Model to the DAILY level, here is what results - Pretty much a similar play as in the 4-hour chart:
David Alcindor
Comment:
09 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:
No change in forecast ... First, TG-Lo = 1.06987 defined on November 07th, 2015 remains intact and in force. Expecting a push to TG-Hi = 1.13205 thereafter.
David Alcindor
No change in forecast ... First, TG-Lo = 1.06987 defined on November 07th, 2015 remains intact and in force. Expecting a push to TG-Hi = 1.13205 thereafter.
David Alcindor
Comment:
10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price hit bearish "TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015" target - Reversal remains a high-probability event as forecast:
David Alcindor
Price hit bearish "TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015" target - Reversal remains a high-probability event as forecast:
David Alcindor
Comment:
12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As forecast, price continues to define a reversal pattern following Quant-Target validation at 1.06987, defined on November 07th, 2015.
As current price action carves a higher low and higher high, expect on interim consolidation allowing price to carve a "lower higher-high" (Hint: E.A.G.L.E. strategy):
David Alcindor
As forecast, price continues to define a reversal pattern following Quant-Target validation at 1.06987, defined on November 07th, 2015.
As current price action carves a higher low and higher high, expect on interim consolidation allowing price to carve a "lower higher-high" (Hint: E.A.G.L.E. strategy):
David Alcindor
Comment:
03 FEB 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
A 3-4 Leg neared completion. Remember that Point-4 remains the most elusive point in these 5-plot geometries, and that Point-5 remains the most consistent point, along the 1-3 Line:
At this point, I will NOT attempt to refine the 1-4 Line until point-4 becomes certain.
Best,
David Alcindor
A 3-4 Leg neared completion. Remember that Point-4 remains the most elusive point in these 5-plot geometries, and that Point-5 remains the most consistent point, along the 1-3 Line:
At this point, I will NOT attempt to refine the 1-4 Line until point-4 becomes certain.
Best,
David Alcindor
Comment:
09 FEB 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
$EUR v $USD: Hit Nov 2015 target; Probable reversal To Geo Pt-5:
Best,
David Alcindor
$EUR v $USD: Hit Nov 2015 target; Probable reversal To Geo Pt-5:
David Alcindor
Comment:
26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price remains tethered to original forecast, having hit targets 3 and 4, and falling in the footprint of the larger geometry, as price continues to fall along the dashed arrow:
Best,
David Alcindor
Price remains tethered to original forecast, having hit targets 3 and 4, and falling in the footprint of the larger geometry, as price continues to fall along the dashed arrow:
Best,
David Alcindor
Comment:
18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As price recoils to the recent target level, I have redefined Point-4 of the larger geomtry as shown in the chart:
Also, consider 1.01446 a high probability target, defining Point-5 of that geometry, as completion of this 5-point cycle remains pending at this time.
Note that a corresponding Fibonacci extension of 1.272 is the closest to that Predictive/Forecasting Model's target level of 1.01446.
Best,
David Alcindor
As price recoils to the recent target level, I have redefined Point-4 of the larger geomtry as shown in the chart:
Also, consider 1.01446 a high probability target, defining Point-5 of that geometry, as completion of this 5-point cycle remains pending at this time.
Note that a corresponding Fibonacci extension of 1.272 is the closest to that Predictive/Forecasting Model's target level of 1.01446.
Best,
David Alcindor
Please, review this long-term analysis of the USDollar Index - Click on image to get to original analysis:
In essence, price completed a sustained ascent to a nodule (consolidation) where from a controlled decline is likely to occur. It is this decline that is expected to be reflected in the $USD decline heralded in the aforementioned minor and major crosses.
Whether fortuitous or ominous, this is all we have to go by ...
Best,
David Alcindor