As per recent analyses in $USD major and minor crosses, the unanimous technical voice speaks of a decline in the US Dollar . It would take invalidation events in all of these charts (see today's analyses in $NZDUSD, $USDCAD, $USDCHF $USDMXN, $USDNOK, $USDZAR, as well as $XAUUSD and #USDollar charts where a variety of technical points are tending towards a degradation of the USD, fully understanding that this statement occurs at the week-end of a #Fex statement of a probable rate hike in December).
On a pure technical basis, which is what all of these analyses derive their data (quantitative supplies data to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, whereas proprietary geometries supply the background of high-probability interim moves), the bias supports a rally in the #euro.
The "Model" defined two sequential targets, first a probable moderate decline, followed by a probable rallying, such that:
1 - TG-Hi = 1.13205 - 07 NOV 2015
2 - TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015
-- Note that a prior TG-Hi target (faded yellow i the upper chart) has been invalidated.
The Geo is a refinement of the , taking into account geometric compensation - See a example provided today in the $GBPAUD here: - The entire analysis can also be found here: http://bit.ly/1NAURse )
In this particular chart, it remains a bit premature to define the borders of the Geo . However, combined with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the technical resolution improves significantly, such that the the following outlines appear:
While this speculative analysis hinges on two of my most reliable instruments (Predictive/Forecasting Model at the foreground and proprietary geometries at the background), it remains an exercise of probability, which at this time favors a rallying from, then into the aforementioned values.
For a more concrete invalidation level, I suggest that 1.04613 be regarded as an adverse excursive value to use for such invalidation to occur.
All $USD analyses completed to this day each pronounce a decline in the US Dollar , by one technical format or another. In addition, antipodean references, such as #gold, $XAUUSD, $JNUG all call for their own strengthening.
A prudent approach would seek invalidation of these analyses in just a few of the posted charts to keep the trader's foot off of an uncertain terrain - Do the due, and consider all this content purely educational.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
Linked-In: David Alcindor
Please, review this long-term analysis of the USDollar Index - Click on image to get to original analysis:
In essence, price completed a sustained ascent to a nodule (consolidation) where from a controlled decline is likely to occur. It is this decline that is expected to be reflected in the $USD decline heralded in the aforementioned minor and major crosses.
Whether fortuitous or ominous, this is all we have to go by ...
Looking at the same morphology and adjusting the Predictive/Forecasting Model to the DAILY level, here is what results - Pretty much a similar play as in the 4-hour chart:
No change in forecast ... First, TG-Lo = 1.06987 defined on November 07th, 2015 remains intact and in force. Expecting a push to TG-Hi = 1.13205 thereafter.
Price hit bearish "TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015" target - Reversal remains a high-probability event as forecast:
As forecast, price continues to define a reversal pattern following Quant-Target validation at 1.06987, defined on November 07th, 2015.
As current price action carves a higher low and higher high, expect on interim consolidation allowing price to carve a "lower higher-high" (Hint: E.A.G.L.E. strategy):
A 3-4 Leg neared completion. Remember that Point-4 remains the most elusive point in these 5-plot geometries, and that Point-5 remains the most consistent point, along the 1-3 Line:
At this point, I will NOT attempt to refine the 1-4 Line until point-4 becomes certain.
$EUR v $USD: Hit Nov 2015 target; Probable reversal To Geo Pt-5:
Price remains tethered to original forecast, having hit targets 3 and 4, and falling in the footprint of the larger geometry, as price continues to fall along the dashed arrow:
As price recoils to the recent target level, I have redefined Point-4 of the larger geomtry as shown in the chart:
Also, consider 1.01446 a high probability target, defining Point-5 of that geometry, as completion of this 5-point cycle remains pending at this time.
Note that a corresponding Fibonacci extension of 1.272 is the closest to that Predictive/Forecasting Model's target level of 1.01446.
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In terms of reversible PROBABILITY, a Quant-Target represents a HIGHER level of probable attainment, but a LOWER level of probable reversibility. So, if and once price reaches that Quant-Target, it has a high probability of retracing (not reversing), which means that a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618 is most probable, but price will tend regain its primary trend and surpass all of these levels, moving on up to higher/lower levels, typically towards Quant-Targets (see below).
The other is a qualitative (i.e.: high/low-based) target, which I refer to as Qual-Target, ans is expressed as TG-Hi, TG-Hix, TG-Lo, or TG-Lox, where "x" represents the next extreme-most level of TG-Hi or T-Lo. These targets refer to future reversal levels, where the extreme-most level (TG-Hix or TG-Lox) represents a LOWER probability of attainment, but the HIGHEST probability of reversal IF and when price gets there.
In terms of Fibonacci, if price reaches TG-Hi or TG-Lo, it will most probably reverse in the Fibonacci order that should exceed 0.618, and in fact is likely to attain 1.131, 1.272, 1,313 or 1.414. However, if price reaches TG-Hix or TG-Lox, it will ost probably reverse in the Fibonacci order that should exceed 1.131, and in fact is likely to attain 1.414, or even 1.618.
The color I use for Quant-Targets are YELLOW - For Qual-target, there are the following:
Nose-Bleed RED - TG-Hi/TG-Lo
Bruising PURPLE - TG-Hix/TG-Lox
Another level I use is the "WL", which indicates a "Watch Line". The Watch Line is that level which if attain should prompt my analyses to move 4-times the current timeframe. So, the work-flow from each timeframe should be as follows, IF price hits the WL line:
1 - M15 moves up to M15 x 4 = H1
2 - H1 moves up to H1 x 4 = H4
3 - H4 moves up to H4 x 4 ~ Daily
4 - Daily moves up to Daily x 4 ~ Weekly
5 - Weekly moves up to Weekly x 4 = Monthly
The reason these levels are moves up is that price will tend to fall under the influence of the controlling agent with the timeframe in consideration. So, as long as the Model is right in term of its Quant/Qual-Target, then the timeframe in consideration remains in control of price. However, an adverse excursion that would push price outside of these Model's frame would likely cause price to Break Across, Close Across ("BACA") the WL line. If this were to occur, then the timeframe is assumed to have lost control, and the higher frames at four-times the current level, is where the agents (typically higher funded, and thus most often institutional) of interference took the activity.
If price were to continue to decline along the 1-3 Line to define point-5, then we would also obtain the firmest confirmation of point-4 one can get, retrospectively, with or without price attaining the above bullish target.
As mentioned before, as the geometry seems to unfold per forecast (which stands independent of the background geometry), the Geo is likely to remain intact, with Point-5 carving a lower low.