4xForecaster
Long

$EUR v $USD - Nascent Geo Eyes Low, Then High Targets | #euro

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
4874 20 60
QUICK ANALYSIS:

As per recent analyses in $USD major and minor crosses, the unanimous technical voice speaks of a decline in the US Dollar             . It would take invalidation events in all of these charts (see today's analyses in $NZDUSD, $USDCAD, $USDCHF $USDMXN, $USDNOK, $USDZAR, as well as $XAUUSD and #USDollar charts where a variety of technical points are tending towards a degradation of the USD, fully understanding that this statement occurs at the week-end of a #Fex statement of a probable rate hike in December).

snapshot

On a pure technical basis, which is what all of these analyses derive their data (quantitative supplies data to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, whereas proprietary geometries supply the background of high-probability interim moves), the bias supports a rally in the #euro.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The "Model" defined two sequential targets, first a probable moderate decline, followed by a probable rallying, such that:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.13205 - 07 NOV 2015

AND

2 - TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015

-- Note that a prior TG-Hi target (faded yellow i the upper chart) has been invalidated.


GEO:

The Geo             is a refinement of the Wolfe Wave , taking into account geometric             compensation - See a example provided today in the $GBPAUD here:
snapshot
- The entire analysis can also be found here: http://bit.ly/1NAURse )

In this particular chart, it remains a bit premature to define the borders of the Geo             . However, combined with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, the technical resolution improves significantly, such that the the following outlines appear:

snapshot


INVALIDATION:

While this speculative analysis hinges on two of my most reliable instruments (Predictive/Forecasting Model at the foreground and proprietary geometries at the background), it remains an exercise of probability, which at this time favors a rallying from, then into the aforementioned values.

For a more concrete             invalidation level, I suggest that 1.04613 be regarded as an adverse excursive value to use for such invalidation to occur.


OVERALL:

All $USD analyses completed to this day each pronounce a decline in the US Dollar             , by one technical format or another. In addition, antipodean references, such as #gold, $XAUUSD, $JNUG all call for their own strengthening.

A prudent approach would seek invalidation of these analyses in just a few of the posted charts to keep the trader's foot off of an uncertain terrain - Do the due, and consider all this content purely educational.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Comment: ADDENDUM:

Please, review this long-term analysis of the USDollar Index - Click on image to get to original analysis:

Is $DXY Rising From A New Cyclical Base | $USD $EUR $Gold #forex

(Source: http://bit.ly/1NAZpPe)

In essence, price completed a sustained ascent to a nodule (consolidation) where from a controlled decline is likely to occur. It is this decline that is expected to be reflected in the $USD decline heralded in the aforementioned minor and major crosses.

Whether fortuitous or ominous, this is all we have to go by ...

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 09 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the same morphology and adjusting the Predictive/Forecasting Model to the DAILY level, here is what results - Pretty much a similar play as in the 4-hour chart:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 09 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

No change in forecast ... First, TG-Lo = 1.06987 defined on November 07th, 2015 remains intact and in force. Expecting a push to TG-Hi = 1.13205 thereafter.

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit bearish "TG-Lo = 1.06987 - 07 NOV 2015" target - Reversal remains a high-probability event as forecast:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price continues to define a reversal pattern following Quant-Target validation at 1.06987, defined on November 07th, 2015.

As current price action carves a higher low and higher high, expect on interim consolidation allowing price to carve a "lower higher-high" (Hint: E.A.G.L.E. strategy):

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 03 FEB 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

A 3-4 Leg neared completion. Remember that Point-4 remains the most elusive point in these 5-plot geometries, and that Point-5 remains the most consistent point, along the 1-3 Line:
snapshot


At this point, I will NOT attempt to refine the 1-4 Line until point-4 becomes certain.

Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 09 FEB 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

$EUR v $USD: Hit Nov 2015 target; Probable reversal To Geo Pt-5:

snapshot

Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to original forecast, having hit targets 3 and 4, and falling in the footprint of the larger geometry, as price continues to fall along the dashed arrow:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price recoils to the recent target level, I have redefined Point-4 of the larger geomtry as shown in the chart:
snapshot


Also, consider 1.01446 a high probability target, defining Point-5 of that geometry, as completion of this 5-point cycle remains pending at this time.

Note that a corresponding Fibonacci extension of 1.272 is the closest to that Predictive/Forecasting Model's target level of 1.01446.

Best,


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Hi David, has the WW been invalidated with the last swing?
Reply
How probable is the reversal?
+1 Reply
@2use, the Predictive/Forecasting Model has TWO types of targets. One is a quantitative (i.e.: number-based) target, which I refer to as Quant-Target, and is expressed as TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n. These targets refer to future pivot points IF and when price enter a new price territory that has never been reached before. If it enters prior territories and defines a Quant-Target, then it is likely to correspond to either a prior R/S level (pivot) or a nodular/nodal core, which project from the 50% of recent discreet geometries.

In terms of reversible PROBABILITY, a Quant-Target represents a HIGHER level of probable attainment, but a LOWER level of probable reversibility. So, if and once price reaches that Quant-Target, it has a high probability of retracing (not reversing), which means that a retracement in the Fibonacci order of 0.386 to 0.618 is most probable, but price will tend regain its primary trend and surpass all of these levels, moving on up to higher/lower levels, typically towards Quant-Targets (see below).

The other is a qualitative (i.e.: high/low-based) target, which I refer to as Qual-Target, ans is expressed as TG-Hi, TG-Hix, TG-Lo, or TG-Lox, where "x" represents the next extreme-most level of TG-Hi or T-Lo. These targets refer to future reversal levels, where the extreme-most level (TG-Hix or TG-Lox) represents a LOWER probability of attainment, but the HIGHEST probability of reversal IF and when price gets there.

In terms of Fibonacci, if price reaches TG-Hi or TG-Lo, it will most probably reverse in the Fibonacci order that should exceed 0.618, and in fact is likely to attain 1.131, 1.272, 1,313 or 1.414. However, if price reaches TG-Hix or TG-Lox, it will ost probably reverse in the Fibonacci order that should exceed 1.131, and in fact is likely to attain 1.414, or even 1.618.

The color I use for Quant-Targets are YELLOW - For Qual-target, there are the following:

Nose-Bleed RED - TG-Hi/TG-Lo
Bruising PURPLE - TG-Hix/TG-Lox

Another level I use is the "WL", which indicates a "Watch Line". The Watch Line is that level which if attain should prompt my analyses to move 4-times the current timeframe. So, the work-flow from each timeframe should be as follows, IF price hits the WL line:

1 - M15 moves up to M15 x 4 = H1
2 - H1 moves up to H1 x 4 = H4
3 - H4 moves up to H4 x 4 ~ Daily
4 - Daily moves up to Daily x 4 ~ Weekly
5 - Weekly moves up to Weekly x 4 = Monthly

The reason these levels are moves up is that price will tend to fall under the influence of the controlling agent with the timeframe in consideration. So, as long as the Model is right in term of its Quant/Qual-Target, then the timeframe in consideration remains in control of price. However, an adverse excursion that would push price outside of these Model's frame would likely cause price to Break Across, Close Across ("BACA") the WL line. If this were to occur, then the timeframe is assumed to have lost control, and the higher frames at four-times the current level, is where the agents (typically higher funded, and thus most often institutional) of interference took the activity.

Best,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
ewpnx1 PRO 4xForecaster
Very interesting read. I never knew about it before. I'll start paying attention on these points in future posts. Thanks for sharing
+1 Reply
Hello @ewpnx1 - Thank you. Feel free to go back to my prior chart and see how these work out. Very interesting how price behaves, regardless of the underlying fundamentals or the asset - David
Reply
David,

Did we just hit point 4?
+1 Reply
Hello @Chartistry - I have just updated this chart. As explained, Point-4 is the most elusive element of the Geo. I would wait for some time before affirming that this is the highest high price can carve. If so, this would become Point-4. Most prudent exercise is to wait for Point-5 completion (BACA < 1-3 Line), at which point, a geometry would offer a high-probability trade.

David
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
Hello David! But in the chart is written that 1.04613 is invalidation piont. And if we folow the splope on 1-3 line the point 5 could be below this invalidation level.
+1 Reply
Hello @nikokoev - Yes. As re-drawn, the geometry is pushing Point-5 further down, so the invalidation point that was drawn for a prior geometry can now be ignored.

David
+1 Reply
... Also, as you may recall, there are TWO targets that where forecast through the dashed line. First a bearish target (hit) then a bullish target (still pending). The reason why I would caution against assuming that current level represents Point-4 is because that target above remains unanswered, and point-4 is a very elusive point, whereas the Model's target remains a more probable level of attainment.

If price were to continue to decline along the 1-3 Line to define point-5, then we would also obtain the firmest confirmation of point-4 one can get, retrospectively, with or without price attaining the above bullish target.

As mentioned before, as the geometry seems to unfold per forecast (which stands independent of the background geometry), the Geo is likely to remain intact, with Point-5 carving a lower low.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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