The following analysis is based on Liquidity Hunting logic on the EURUSD 4-Hour timeframe. The market is approaching a critical zone that smells like blood (Stop Losses).
1. Map of Parked Money (The Whale's Hunting Ground)
Smart Money always flows toward liquidity. Currently, the Price Magnet sits directly above the recent highs in the 1.1750 to 1.1800 range.
Buy-side Liquidity: Retail traders have hidden their Stop Losses (for Short positions) above the 1.1750 and 1.1800 peaks. Algorithms view this area as "fuel" for the next move.
Ultimate Target: If momentum persists, the primary liquidity pool lies above the September highs near 1.1900.
2. Recent Price Traps (Market Deception)
Observe the price action in November around the 1.1500 zone. The market executed a classic downside "Fake-out," convincing retail traders the trend was bearish, only to aggressively sweep their liquidity and reverse upward.
Current Status: The market is now creating "false hope" for late buyers (FOMO) to trap them right at the 1.1750 ceiling.
3. Institutional Footprint (The Concrete Wall)
Demand Zone (Support): The 1.1600 level is where heavy institutional orders are planted to defend the price. Any return to this zone will likely be met with algorithmic buying.
Supply Zone (Resistance): The 1.1800 - 1.1900 range is a heavy Bearish Order Block. Passing this zone without a corrective pullback will be extremely difficult.
4. The Next Ruthless Scenario (Projected Path)
Price (currently at 1.1737) is only a few pips away from the liquidity pool. Projected Path: There is a 90% probability the price will attack the stops above 1.1750 (Stop Hunt). Whales need these stops to trigger in order to generate the liquidity required for their next decision (either heavy selling or trend continuation).
5. Reaction Strategy (The Final Trigger)
This is the most critical part. Do not enter blindly. The reaction to the 1.1750 - 1.1800 zone is the deciding factor:
The Reversal Scenario (Sweep & Reclaim): If price spikes (wicks) above 1.1750/1.1780 quickly but the 4H candle fails to hold and the body closes below the resistance level (SFP - Swing Failure Pattern), this is a sign Whales are exiting/shorting.
Trigger: Short with a target back to 1.1600.
The Continuation Scenario (Valid Breakout): If a strong 4H candle (large body, small wick) closes firmly above 1.1800, the sell wall has been breached.
Trigger: Wait for a Retest of 1.1800, then Long targeting 1.1900.
WARNING: Price is currently in a "No Trade Zone" for buyers. The Risk-to-Reward ratio for a Long entry here is terrible. Wait for the reaction at 1.1750.
1. Map of Parked Money (The Whale's Hunting Ground)
Smart Money always flows toward liquidity. Currently, the Price Magnet sits directly above the recent highs in the 1.1750 to 1.1800 range.
Buy-side Liquidity: Retail traders have hidden their Stop Losses (for Short positions) above the 1.1750 and 1.1800 peaks. Algorithms view this area as "fuel" for the next move.
Ultimate Target: If momentum persists, the primary liquidity pool lies above the September highs near 1.1900.
2. Recent Price Traps (Market Deception)
Observe the price action in November around the 1.1500 zone. The market executed a classic downside "Fake-out," convincing retail traders the trend was bearish, only to aggressively sweep their liquidity and reverse upward.
Current Status: The market is now creating "false hope" for late buyers (FOMO) to trap them right at the 1.1750 ceiling.
3. Institutional Footprint (The Concrete Wall)
Demand Zone (Support): The 1.1600 level is where heavy institutional orders are planted to defend the price. Any return to this zone will likely be met with algorithmic buying.
Supply Zone (Resistance): The 1.1800 - 1.1900 range is a heavy Bearish Order Block. Passing this zone without a corrective pullback will be extremely difficult.
4. The Next Ruthless Scenario (Projected Path)
Price (currently at 1.1737) is only a few pips away from the liquidity pool. Projected Path: There is a 90% probability the price will attack the stops above 1.1750 (Stop Hunt). Whales need these stops to trigger in order to generate the liquidity required for their next decision (either heavy selling or trend continuation).
5. Reaction Strategy (The Final Trigger)
This is the most critical part. Do not enter blindly. The reaction to the 1.1750 - 1.1800 zone is the deciding factor:
The Reversal Scenario (Sweep & Reclaim): If price spikes (wicks) above 1.1750/1.1780 quickly but the 4H candle fails to hold and the body closes below the resistance level (SFP - Swing Failure Pattern), this is a sign Whales are exiting/shorting.
Trigger: Short with a target back to 1.1600.
The Continuation Scenario (Valid Breakout): If a strong 4H candle (large body, small wick) closes firmly above 1.1800, the sell wall has been breached.
Trigger: Wait for a Retest of 1.1800, then Long targeting 1.1900.
WARNING: Price is currently in a "No Trade Zone" for buyers. The Risk-to-Reward ratio for a Long entry here is terrible. Wait for the reaction at 1.1750.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.