Warning: EURUSD is about to fall from its peak.

Apr 17

The market is adopting a rather "typical" picture of a distribution phase — and EURUSD is currently no exception.

After the previous strong rally, the price is approaching the support zone around 1.1800 – 1.1820, overlapping the most recent peak and also the area that has been repeatedly rejected. Notably, buying pressure is starting to weaken: subsequent peaks are no longer clearly breaking through, the price structure is shifting to a sideways pattern with signs of slightly lower highs than higher highs.

Consequently, the news context: the ECB has yet to raise interest rates while the Fed maintains "higher interest rates for a longer period," and money is tending to flow back into the USD. This makes the current EURUSD movements more technical than trend-setting.

Technically, the price is retesting the Ichimoku cloud and the upward trendline. If the 1.1760 area is breached, it will likely trigger further selling pressure towards the 1.1740 area — this is the most recent support and also the equilibrium point of the previous upward momentum.

The best course of action right now is not to sell aggressively, but to wait for a rebound to the 1.1800 area to look for a sell signal. This is because this area has both sideways movement, profit-taking pressure, and news factors supporting the USD.

Apr 18

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