EUR/USD 
EURUSD managed to attract solid buying interest during an intraday dip (buy-the-dips), while also posting gains for the second consecutive day during Wednesday's Asian session.
This green light for the Euro was triggered by the moderate weakening of the US Dollar (USD) following yesterday's release of cooling US consumer inflation data.
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✅ Fundamental Dynamics: The CPI Release vs. Kevin Warsh's Monetary Doctrine
Transatlantic forces are currently in a delicate balance due to the clash of daily macro data and the Fed's long-term rhetoric:
- USD Weakens Due to Weak US CPI: The US Department of Labor reported Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, which was weaker than market expectations, driven by the fall in domestic gasoline prices throughout June.
- Kevin Warsh's Hawkish Shield on Capitol Hill: Despite the cooling CPI data, the potential for a US Dollar decline was strongly restrained by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony last night. Warsh reiterated his absolute commitment to the price stability mandate and the 2% inflation target. He signaled that the monetary committee would not hesitate to implement further tightening if inflation risks re-emerge.
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✅ Technical Analysis 4-Hour Chart (H4)
From a technical perspective, the Euro is showing a strong recovery in momentum, but it remains corrective, not yet confirming a pure trend reversal:
- EUR/USD is still struggling to gain acceptance and build strength above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downtrend.
- If the Euro manages to break through 1.1460-1.1470, the next major hurdle awaits around 1.1490.
- RSI (14) Climbs to 56: This indicates that buying momentum (bullish pressure) is experiencing structural improvement post-CPI, but its moderate position (below 60) requires caution before placing overly aggressive long bets.
EURUSD managed to attract solid buying interest during an intraday dip (buy-the-dips), while also posting gains for the second consecutive day during Wednesday's Asian session.This green light for the Euro was triggered by the moderate weakening of the US Dollar (USD) following yesterday's release of cooling US consumer inflation data.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Fundamental Dynamics: The CPI Release vs. Kevin Warsh's Monetary Doctrine
Transatlantic forces are currently in a delicate balance due to the clash of daily macro data and the Fed's long-term rhetoric:
- USD Weakens Due to Weak US CPI: The US Department of Labor reported Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, which was weaker than market expectations, driven by the fall in domestic gasoline prices throughout June.
- Kevin Warsh's Hawkish Shield on Capitol Hill: Despite the cooling CPI data, the potential for a US Dollar decline was strongly restrained by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony last night. Warsh reiterated his absolute commitment to the price stability mandate and the 2% inflation target. He signaled that the monetary committee would not hesitate to implement further tightening if inflation risks re-emerge.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Technical Analysis 4-Hour Chart (H4)
From a technical perspective, the Euro is showing a strong recovery in momentum, but it remains corrective, not yet confirming a pure trend reversal:
- EUR/USD is still struggling to gain acceptance and build strength above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downtrend.
- If the Euro manages to break through 1.1460-1.1470, the next major hurdle awaits around 1.1490.
- RSI (14) Climbs to 56: This indicates that buying momentum (bullish pressure) is experiencing structural improvement post-CPI, but its moderate position (below 60) requires caution before placing overly aggressive long bets.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.