I know that a lot of people had some question mark in mind when I was making studies with a headline goal of 1.382-1.385 for at least 3 weeks now. People thought that After 1.39XX, Euro would jump at 1.355 and bellow.
But as I have told in the past, and I keep the same idea in mind, there are 3 reasons why EUR will make a last try to 1.38XX.
1- Market bought for a very long time the decrease of the interest rate announced by ECB before this has been decided yet. Therefore at 1.355, the pair was already oversold.
2-The economic figures of US are still not good, and this cannot be explained by just the bad weather during the winter in the country.
3- Despite the announcement of FED concerning the good shape of the US economy, it is not yet the case. FED is not willing to frighten the market, and cannot postponed the Tappering process. Therefore the only tool left is keeping low interest rate and cheap money as Greenspan would have done if he was in power and did in the past.
Therefore FED will only lift up its interest rate in March at the earliest. ECB will not go yet bellow the level announced and decided.
And overall, QE3 is still being applied although there is a gradual decrease in the amount. Therefore in terms of equilibrium, EUR is the powerful currency against the USD.
One should not forget that ECB has repeatedly stated that above EU looses its competitiveness when EUR is above1.40XX and therefore would not hesitate to intervene. It did so in the past.
So we do have an upper benchmark which is 1.40XX and a lower benchmark which is 1.35, 1.33. And in between there is plenty of room to play.
But as I have told in the past, and I keep the same idea in mind, there are 3 reasons why EUR will make a last try to 1.38XX.
1- Market bought for a very long time the decrease of the interest rate announced by ECB before this has been decided yet. Therefore at 1.355, the pair was already oversold.
2-The economic figures of US are still not good, and this cannot be explained by just the bad weather during the winter in the country.
3- Despite the announcement of FED concerning the good shape of the US economy, it is not yet the case. FED is not willing to frighten the market, and cannot postponed the Tappering process. Therefore the only tool left is keeping low interest rate and cheap money as Greenspan would have done if he was in power and did in the past.
Therefore FED will only lift up its interest rate in March at the earliest. ECB will not go yet bellow the level announced and decided.
And overall, QE3 is still being applied although there is a gradual decrease in the amount. Therefore in terms of equilibrium, EUR is the powerful currency against the USD.
One should not forget that ECB has repeatedly stated that above EU looses its competitiveness when EUR is above1.40XX and therefore would not hesitate to intervene. It did so in the past.
So we do have an upper benchmark which is 1.40XX and a lower benchmark which is 1.35, 1.33. And in between there is plenty of room to play.
