The fundamental lean on EURUSD will revive the long-term bear trend. However, that doesn't mean the eventual disparity in monetary policy bearings and/or risk trends has to fuel the move now. We need evidence to show that the market is willing to conform to the fundamental outlook and price their anticipation. Draghi saying the ECB will review its stimulus efforts in December is a big beacon for FX traders. However, the ECB will not likely carry the same clout the Fed did. With major event risk on the docket next week as well (US and UK GDP, Fed, BoJ, etc), there may be reticence to break major pair's support. I'm tempted to fade the momentum and trade the range rebound, but it would be very risky. Hmm.
Comments
Crinklebine
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By drawing a trend line that skips the upper August 24 pivot changes the channel a lot. If the upper trend line connects the May 15 to Aug 24 upper pivots the upper trend line is up. This would then show a channel that is moving slightly upwards. We could in fact have a more bullish case for EURUSD. Until the bottom trend line breaks only then can we should keep an open mind to how the channel will work out. The chart seems to say trade the channel and go long the EURUSD soon or now. In addition we have a series of higher lowers on the bottom of the channel. It might not be such a risky trade because one can stop out on a daily close below the lower trend line.
Crinklebine
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I saw in your DailyFX video that you have the other trend line in. Next week has some event risk lie you pointed out. Also the candle from today is big and red and usually this means lower prices ahead. Perhaps the institutions take it below 1.10 to clear some stops and then run it back up. That move would not do much technical damage to the higher lows against the current trend. Its too bad Tradingview doesn't have FX volume like the DailyFX client has.