This will probably be my only post today as there really is not much going on in the pairs today. Today is all about consolidation and setting up for big moves next week. There really is not any changes to my previous outlooks on this pair or the other pairs I have posted about.
Whenever it seems that things aren't making sense and you can't make heads or tails of what PA is doing, it's usually because it's in a consolidation. Some studies have found that prices spend almost 70-90% of the time in consolidation and not trending. Most amateur traders lose most of their money trying to trade the consolidation, zigging when prices are zagging and zagging when prices are zigging. Sound familiar? Wondering why every time you think you are catching a trend, it turns on you all of a sudden? That's why. You're trying to catch a trend when there isn't any. Normal trend trading techniques don't work well during consolidation.
The trick is to recognize as early as you can that prices are in consolidation phase and use consolidation trading techniques or DON'T TRADE and just wait for the breakout.
SO WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW? By my wave count, we are currently in a wave 2 consolidation and probably will stay that way for the rest of today (Friday) and maybe into Monday's session. So what kind of consolidation is it? Wave 2's have a tendency towards ABC zigzag patterns retracing anywhere from 38.2 - 100% of wave 1. If it's a shallow retracement (say between 23.6 - 50%), then the resuming trend tends to be quite strong. That's more or less what I am expecting. When the trend up continues, we will be seeing a wave 3.
As of this posting, there are 2 ways I see prices unfolding: 1. a ABDCE contracting triangle pattern (blue) of which the A leg has already reached the 38.2% retrace and if this scenario holds, prices should not go any deeper. As of this post, prices could've already formed the C point and is now working on the D point of the triangle with the E point after that. When prices reach the E point, that would a good time to buy. But must wait and let the triangle fully develop. If prices were to break the lower trend line of this triangle, then look to this next scenario..... 2. an ABC (5-3-5) Zigzag pattern (red). There is also a POTENTIAL Bullish Perfect Gartley. Now this Gartley, should it be filled would negate the triangle pattern. So it will be easy to to see that this Gartley would be the correct unfolding of wave 2. The Gartley would also contain the ABC (5-3-5) zigzag pattern
Either way, I will NOT be trading either one of the above patterns until one or the other is finished. I wail only be looking for the end of either pattern and looking to catch the beginning of the wave 3 up. I would STRONGLY advise against anyone trying to trade this consolidation as I believe it will be shallow and could breakout to the upside without completing either pattern. So if you were short trying to catch for example the wave (c) down of the ABC zigzag, you could get caught on the wrong side when wave 3 begins. So why take the risk when the prize for patience will be a wave 3?
How did you accept wave 3's substructure as valid? A lot of overlap going on there
EverythingForex
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You're right as to the overlap on wave 3 substructure. Wave 1 end needs to be readjusted to a lower point to prevent overlapping. But that does not alter the overall count and the picture IMHO.
Fabio.M
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Very keen analysis as always. Good, EverythingForex.
EverythingForex
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Thanks!
TradeYodha
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Hello Matte, I guess we are again matching wavelengths here on eurusd. Check this out..