Zedro

Upcoming Long or Short Opportunity: EU at Converging Trendlines

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
I'm mostly on wait-and-see-mode with this trade, but there's opportunity for large, longterm profits in EU. I'm looking at this inverse head and shoulders pattern/symmetrical triangle. Here are two scenarios I'll be tracking if/when the price hits the 1.07940 area:

1) Inverse head and shoulders neckline is broken. In this case, we are in for a longterm uptrend (TP targets would be identified later). I would recommend buying into this trend after a brief retrace to around the 1.08000 level (psychological support after breakthrough).

2) Continuation of trend within the symmetrical triangle. In my opinion, this is the more rational scenario given Eurozone instability (Brexit, elections) and U.S. strength. Also, my MACD and RSI techs indicate a potential reversal. This is a medium-term downtrend to a TP at 1.06000 (again, a nice psychological level).

Symmetrical triangles are traditionally neutral in nature, so I wouldn't be surprised if the lower trendline acts as support for a pivot up. I'll be monitoring this and will provide updates to my idea.

Good Luck!
Comment: Following a breakthrough and retest of the upper trendline, the price is sitting in the pivotal area mentioned in my description; however, it appears a break to the upside is more likely than option 2, which was the continuation of trend within the symmetrical triangle. Once confirmed, I will publish a new idea with more clear tp, sl targets.
Trade active: Looking again at scenario 1, I am targeting 1.08575 as my first take profit. I will monitor the trade here if the target is hit. Seeing as indicators are nearly begging for a sell, I may close the entire position and reassess the pair. I will close this idea if my target is hit.
Trade closed: target reached: Target 1.08575 has been hit and then some. I have taken profit and will look to enter a short position in the near future.
Thank you Zedro for this great chart and potential trading opportunity. Now that it reached today the 1.0795 level, taking a long position, what TP point are you looking at? I have seen several traders looking at 1.1063. But I would like to see your thoughts on this.
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Zedro Pipgroove
@Pipgroove,

Thanks for your comment, Pipgroove. Well, we're on a precipice of big (though not unexpected) news regarding Article 50. Certainly be cautious when entering a position that favors the increase value of the Euro. That being said, I now have a sl at 1.07450. Regarding a tp, I'm relatively conservative, judging by the price you mentioned. I'm targeting 1.09300 (tp1) then 1.09500 (tp2). 1.093 is roughly where the 0.618 fib lies (calculated from the high point after Trump's election, to the lowest low between then and now). 1.095 is a resistance area based on past price action.

I hope your trade works out for you!

Thanks again,
Zedro
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Zedro Zedro
@Pipgroove

Well, as I was writing this, the price cracked that resistance zone. I'll keep monitoring this, but that's why I mentioned Article 50. It will be a highly volatile day. Good luck.
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thanks for your chart, but you have to look to another indicator as chart to know about the way.

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Zedro iSaleh
@iSaleh, Thank you for the input. My trading plan relies on trendlines, S&R, patterns, MACD, and RSI. It is consistently profitable for me, but may not work well for everybody. I did not add MACD or RSI to this chart because it takes up too much room, and would have made this more difficult to review after publication. I will take your comment into consideration for future published ideas. Thanks again.
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