The EURUSD pair broke today below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 06. This has come after failure to close above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) on successive attempts and most likely we will see a pull-back extension towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
This bearish leg from its beginning looks like those of October 26 - November 03 and October 05 - October 13. On the longer-term those pull-backs were Higher Lows on the uptrend since the September 28 Market Bottom. Common feature is that both happened when the 4H RSI was around the 30.000 oversold mark and after the 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross. As a result, a MACD Bullish Cross would be the confirmation to buy. Our medium-term target is again the 1D MA200.
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