The EUR/USD is essentially in a downtrend. But, current price is in an Optimal counter-trend trading zone. This area is the monthly support zone that I look for possible long trades throughout the next couple of days and weeks. I'll be looking for an Entry Point on the 4HR timeframe!
I agree with your long trade idea. The recent movement down seems to be a few pips short of a full 100% retrace from the upward movement from 21st February. I would expect a reversal of sorts probably followed by consolidation why the market decides which way it's going to go.