- setup is still , but the trend is less obvious. Thick Kumo ahead of price.
- High pull back phase and consolidation, with first strong support at 1,1500
- Pulled back to the Kumo and was flirting with a very important horizontal and trend support at 8,35-8,45, then Bulls took back control again. Despite we saw more Oil price action recently, Norvegian macro figures started to cause some worry, and some started to think that finally Norges Bank will cut its base rate this month.
- setup is very interesting: due to previous blow up averages make a neutral setup now and possible setup ahead!
- I think Oil Price will trade in 58-74 range in next few months, so probably 9,00 will be an upper resistance for EURNOK . I also believe that the more mkt is pricing a rate cut, the less likely Norges Bank will do it. I still think they are one of the most prudent and wisest Central Banks
- setup is neutral, Price is likely enterring the Kumo. Range trading in 9,15-9,40 area. It is a hard call now. Would be below 9,15, again above 9,40.
- Trend is still up, but Swedish macro numbers are slightly beating estimates recently, while Riksbank is doing . Statistically they are one of the worst Central Banks in terms of predicting macro changes, which means they are most often behind the curve.
- and setup.
- Since March/2015 price has been making a wide range and high consolidation.
- Strong support at 0,7500-0,7530
- Very volatile pair, difficult to trade. RBA clearly wants a weaker Aussie. Of course ECB wants a weak EUR as well.
- setup is neutral, Price reached equilibrium level at the Kumo. There is still a possible in place.
- Trend is , setup is with some "neutral bias" (as we have a future Kumo overshade and Chikou Span got close to past candles)
- Price retested Kijun Sen and a very important key horizontal supp/res level ard 1,40. According to rules, 1,3800-1,4000 is the zone where we have to look for a possible sell signals. However if Price breaks the and closes above 1,42, that would invalidate all ideas and could lead to a reversal later.
1. CAD seems to have possibly the best value against selling EUR (short EURCAD )
2. EURGBP short has less reward
3. Forget AUD
4. Watch SEK , as that can start to move massively in any direction.
5. EURNOK is a hard call, as trend is up, but setup is mixed (neutral now, ahead). Looking only at 8,80-9,00 may be a possible sell zone, but strategic short recommended only below 8,40.
6. EURUSD: as the most liquid and most actively traded pair it seriously kills everybody recently with its . 1,10-1,15 to stay I think until summer ends. I don't really like to have long USD (ok maybe some short from 1,15 in case), so if we think to short EUR, probably "GO TO 1." and do it ag. CAD.
I don't like predictions and assumptions. I think no one knows what a number will be like, or what is priced in. Our world is a lot more complex. That's why I always say: don't be a price or trend predictor, be a price and trend follower! I take high probability trades. I try not to trade on my biases or beliefe.
Please check the new post. There you will see what I mean by higher probability trade opps.