Kumowizard

EUR - Relative value ag. majors on weekly charts

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
458 5 4
EURUSD:
- Ichimoku setup is still bearish , but the trend is less obvious. Thick Kumo ahead of price.
- High volatility pull back phase and consolidation, with first strong bearish support at 1,1500

EURNOK:
- Pulled back to the Kumo and was flirting with a very important horizontal and trend support at 8,35-8,45, then Bulls took back control again. Despite we saw more bullish Oil             price action recently, Norvegian macro figures started to cause some worry, and some started to think that finally Norges Bank will cut its base rate this month.
- Ichimoku setup is very interesting: due to previous blow up averages make a neutral setup now and possible bearish setup ahead!
- I think Oil             Price will trade in 58-74 range in next few months, so probably 9,00 will be an upper resistance for EURNOK             . I also believe that the more mkt is pricing a rate cut, the less likely Norges Bank will do it. I still think they are one of the most prudent and wisest Central Banks

EURSEK:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral, Price is likely enterring the Kumo. Range trading in 9,15-9,40 area. It is a hard call now. Would be bearish below 9,15, bullish again above 9,40.
- Trend is still up, but Swedish macro numbers are slightly beating estimates recently, while Riksbank is doing QE             . Statistically they are one of the worst Central Banks in terms of predicting macro changes, which means they are most often behind the curve.

EURGBP:
- Bearish trend and bearish Ichimoku setup.
- Since March/2015 price has been making a wide range and high volatility consolidation.
- Strong bearish support at 0,7500-0,7530

EURAUD:
- Very volatile pair, difficult to trade. RBA clearly wants a weaker Aussie. Of course ECB wants a weak EUR as well.
- Ichimoku setup is neutral, Price reached equilibrium level at the Kumo. There is still a possible downtrend channel in place.

EURCAD:
- Trend is bearish , Ichimoku setup is bearish with some "neutral bias" (as we have a future Kumo overshade and Chikou Span got close to past candles)
- Price retested Kijun Sen and a very important key horizontal supp/res level ard 1,40. According to Ichimoku rules, 1,3800-1,4000 is the zone where we have to look for a possible sell signals. However if Price breaks the trendline and closes above 1,42, that would invalidate all bearish ideas and could lead to a bullish reversal later.

Summary:
1. CAD seems to have possibly the best value against selling EUR (short EURCAD             )
2. EURGBP             short has less reward
3. Forget AUD
4. Watch SEK             , as that can start to move massively in any direction.
5. EURNOK             is a hard call, as trend is up, but Ichimoku setup is mixed (neutral now, bearish ahead). Looking only at Ichimoku 8,80-9,00 may be a possible sell zone, but strategic short recommended only below 8,40.
6. EURUSD: as the most liquid and most actively traded pair it seriously kills everybody recently with its volatility. 1,10-1,15 to stay I think until summer ends. I don't really like to have long USD (ok maybe some short from 1,15 in case), so if we think to short EUR, probably "GO TO 1." and do it ag. CAD.
AmirHossein.J
a year ago
do you think it can be long or short ?
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Kumowizard PRO AmirHossein.J
a year ago
Please check the new post. I missed to link all the six charts in this one.
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as for the eur/usd I kind of disagree with you , I think that a strong number this afternoon will give fuel to the bear and potentialy retest 1.10 at least kumo kind of support that idea
snapshot
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Kumowizard PRO jeanbaptiste.laurent.94
a year ago
Maybe, I don't know. I don1t know either if 1,10 would stop a move like that or not. What I know is it turns bearish again below 1,10.
I don't like predictions and assumptions. I think no one knows what a number will be like, or what is priced in. Our world is a lot more complex. That's why I always say: don't be a price or trend predictor, be a price and trend follower! I take high probability trades. I try not to trade on my biases or beliefe.

Please check the new post. There you will see what I mean by higher probability trade opps.
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Please ignore this post. I republish it with all charts.
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