Dear Colleagues, it seems to me that the next week will prove to be one of the most interesting trading periods for those who like this pair. At least, for myself.
The long-lasting consolidation in a large triangle was broken to the downside. As it should be the 4th wave in the downtrend, I am wondering what is a kind of a diagonal that we observe to the price 1,034.
The first and so far the basic scenario for me is that the diagonal is the Leading one. Therefore, current upside movement takes the form of the WXY correction in the second wave after the Diagonal. This scenario implies leaving the extreme of the wave (E) of the Triangle intact and the pair should continue its way to the downside and the parity. We can find the supporting evidence if we take a look at the trading volumes - they were decreasing over the whole time when price was pulling back in an assumed WXY correction to 1,12
The second scenario - and we all should be very careful next week - is that the Diagonal was !! Ending. And it was the (5)th wave that have completed the whole downdtrend for EURUSD. It means that the WXY pullback may be, for instance, (1)-(2) 1-2 waves to the upside... and now we are at the most powerful part of the impulse - the third of third wave up. Especially true if you look at the last Weekly candle...
You never know, of course... that is why everyone should take for granted: this is the game of probabilities. Hope this post will help someone))
Good luck and have a nice trading week!
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Initiated several trades on M1-M5 when price was above 1,12 (also checked CME options levels). All of them were killed at b/e. I sold at 1.1258, now at b/e until good times. Will see.
Comments
ploskyx3
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bhushan_arora
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nice commentary... much appreciated...
gregpap
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It's very tricky indeed, have a look to dxy I think it's more clear there ;)
r_rudnitsky
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agree
I just saw Your post re DXY. This is the way I think also.
If we look at Chief and Cable - may see triangles on the daily charts, they shouldn't be in the 2nd waves (implying the reversal for the greenback).
Therefore I will be at the terminal in an hour to check where it goes)))
have a nice week! will follow you)