The largest stimulus package in human history of $ 2.2 trillion has been sign in the US and simultaneously the Fed is going on for unlimited QE and will print every week the same amount as QE2 was for one year. In the stimulus package we can find the idea of the universal salary paid by MMT. They have thrown everything possible including the kitchen sink at this crisis and as we know from recent history ounce they start it cannot be stopped. And it won't be long before someone realize that the King is naked. The cause of all this is the threat of the Coronavirus, conflicting evidence are surfacing: On the one hand news from Italy are really alarming.
Whatever the truth the West will come, out of this crisis, far weaker compared to China which didn't need such an enormous amount of stimulus and is already recovering very fast. China was predicted to become the first power in the world by 2030 but this crisis may have speed up the process. I let you imagine the world under the dominance of China.
Oil: Chevron is going to cut spending by 4billion, and everyone will do the same, the number of rigs is plummeting, which means that the supply of oil will diminish in the coming years. The problem being that when demand will rise again the supply won't be there.
Conclusion: Like with Covid19, the weaker economy will suffer the most, at the moment the weakest is the EU. This crisis will precipitate the demise of the EU so Capital will at first seek refuge in the US$, US stocks and Gold but in the long run Asia will be the place to be.
Your analysis reminds a bit of that Bruce Willis time travel film Looper where the future Willis character meets up with his younger self and tells him "Just go to China.
I must admit I'm surprised by the Euro & Aussie holding up as well as they have even with the US stimulus.
Monday will be vey interesting I just hope we get more liquidity like we had before Trump F'd up the currency markets then I wouldn't have to drive this Uber anymore :)
Cheers and good luck
WilliamBond
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@fxau, Hi sir , Thank your your kind appreciation.
Your analysis reminds a bit of that Bruce Willis time travel film Looper where the future Willis character meets up with his younger self and tells him "Just go to China.
I must admit I'm surprised by the Euro & Aussie holding up as well as they have even with the US stimulus.
Monday will be vey interesting I just hope we get more liquidity like we had before Trump F'd up the currency markets then I wouldn't have to drive this Uber anymore :)
Cheers and good luck