On the right we can see an ugly that is about to fail it seems and turning into a ugly . Now it should stay below that red resistance. I think it will drop back into the range of the past months and probably around that blue circle turn up again. But that is getting ahead of things. First goal is around the yellow circle. If that hits, i will keep half for the blue circle. The red circle indicates a small bull trap to me.
Previous analysis (of the bear trap move):