The euro is continuing to find resistance at 2015 year highs where there seems to be an upper TL forming. I believe rallies if price trades back up to it would offer a good RR opportunity to sell the euro with a stop above the year 2015 high. Alternately, a break of year 2015 low on a strong daily close would offer another opportunity to sell the euro. Looking at time the current range the euro has been trading in is similar with two previous times. If the euro makes an equal mm to the downside as the previous selloff. The euro has a possible downside target @ 0.81826 - 0.82800
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New eurusd chart posted in comments.
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I know this is the GBPUSD pair. However, if this pair starts to tank the euro could be tanking right with it. If price closes below the NL on a strong monthly close, the GBP could be in trouble and the EURO would be not to far behind. This is hinting at up coming problems within the EU that could sent the GBP and EURO crashing. This could be a historic move similar the the 2009 GBP crash.
The EURUSD pair could just tank. There is an old filled gap on a simulated EURUSD from 1972. I am thinking which is very dangerous for me. Maybe, just maybe the EURO want to fill that old gap now that it is a currency in circulation. It is possible. Possible historic currency moves could be in front of us.
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I am probably wrong 100% with this idea. However, I wanted to post it here for my future reference. While nobody can forecast the future. There are tells in sentiment. Here is one with Nigel Farage at the European Parliament recently. Full speech of Nigel Farage at the Eu Parliament. All of Parliament is booing him. The crowd is usually wrong. I would believe they are wrong once again. If we could put the EU parliament sentiment on a chart it would show extreme arrogance towards The UK and Nigel Farage. At extremes is when big moves start where arrogance in this case blinded the majority of the problems staring the EU Parliament strait in the face. I do not know if the euro will crash like I believe it could. I just believe the EU Parliament will continue with policies that could be detrimental to the euro. youtube.com/watch?v=MlN9o3g-yuA
The euro could try to make another attempt at yearly highs which i believe will set up a three falling peaks pattern. This is also looking like a two year triangle in the making. Breaking it to the downside would hint at more downside for the euro.
elp
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Looking at the eurusd pair. Current price is at a trendline starting in 1972. Breaking this TL could send price down to parity. Although there is another TL down at 0.61010 that is in confluence with an old gap that was filled in 1985. Who knows? Maybe price wants to fill it now that the euro is an actual currency in circulation where in 1985 it was not in circulation. This is probably all BS. I do not know. I just see the possibility of a huge move to the downside if major support breaks.
elp
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GBPUSD looks to be rallying into brexit. fwiw the brexit vote in june is almost 31.4 years from the 1985 bottom. The gbpsud could go either way. Although if this pair breaks 30 year support @ 1.3685 on a monthly close. I believe the gbpusd pair could trade towards parity or make a double bottom with the 1985 lows. I would not trade this pair until the brexit vote is over. Something to keep an eye on imo. This could turn into a good RR trade if the 30 year support breaks.
elp
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Possible triangle forming. If this is the case the euro could trade sideways longer. Similar to yrs 2012-2014 where the euro made a 22 month corrective pattern before continuing with the downtrend.