In my previous post on this pair, I projected that prices if hitting 1.13749 could not exceed it (see Related Ideas: "EURUSD: Wave (v) Projected Ending"). Well, prices hit EXACTLY 1.13749! It also completed the Gartley pattern and is in the PRZ of the butterfly as well. And it is right at the upper trend line of the large contracting triangle pattern. So much confluence makes this a STRONG SELL.
Where to sell? Anywhere it is right now as of this posting! This is possibly the end of wave (C) of the triangle and we could be poised to see wave (D) down. the operative word is "could be". As I have said before, there is a scenario I talked about before where wave (C) could continue going up and thereby invalidate the contracting triangle pattern. If that happens, then wave (C) will extend further. MUCH FURTHER! So if going short here, I again warn to be diligent in monitoring the SHORT trade.
MY TRADING PLAN Yes, I am going SHORT here in hopes of catching the possible wave (D) down of the triangle pattern. Or at the very least capturing some pips profit off the Gartley/Butterfly combo. What I'll be looking for is the TP1 profit target of the Gartley to see what PA is doing and telling me at that point. This wave (C) is in fact a very strong uptrend so this is a counter-trend trade. Something to be cautious about at the very least
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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we ended day at 1.1380. so we have broken ur point C. you still think we can retrace here.
EverythingForex
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Yes, That is what the charts are telling me. It's not what I want. Breaking 1.13479 point only invalidates my previous wave count on this pair. Does not invalidate the SHORT trade. See my latest post on this pair....
Jebanese
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Sir, You are really great!!!
EverythingForex
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Thanks but I wouldn't say that! I've been wrong many. many times as well! And will continue to be wrong many times! Good luck to you!
themarketzone
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Great chart.. I saw those patterns posted by several users (including me of course).. I hope that it isn't to obvious. From my experience, too obvious patterns do not work. Anyway I'm bearish
IvanLabrie
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Same boat...I think the sentiment is bullish, this might be a technical trader thing. Extreme bullish sentiment and general panic surrounding equities + risk off rally.
EverythingForex
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Well, when I posted these patterns 13 days ago, I only had less than 2% of viewers agree with me. At the time, the overwhelming market sentiment was bearish with many traders anticipating a break to the down side continuation of a strong short-term bearish trend and a continuation of the long-term overall bearish trend. I did not as my overall analysis showed that the correction was far from over and a bearish continuation was not in the cards.
As of now, the market sentiment has not changed even with the recent uptrend. The overall sentiment remains bearish though less so than 13 days ago. CoT, SSI and SWFX all showing bearish sentiment for this pair. Does this mean the market is going down? Overall, I still don't think so. But I do believe a relief retracement is in order before the wave (C) uptrend continues.
themarketzone
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My guess is.. and its just a guess.. that EURUSD will stall here perhaps till next ECB meeting. We will see.
EverythingForex
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BTW, tmz. I enjoy reading your weekly reports. Keep up the good work.