- National Australia Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD bounced back from 1.0730 on Friday and posted an 80-pip loss during the trading session. Monday is important day in terms of EU and US fundamentals. A possible Fed announcement to raise a discount rate may easily push EUR/USD below 1.06. We are looking at Apr low at 1.0519 as the next reliable support for this currency pair. This level is guarded by monthly/weekly S2 and lower , which are highly unlikely to give up quickly.
We continue observing the lead over bears of around six percentage points, which makes it a 53-47% distribution of trades opened in the SWFX market. Despite that, only 32% of traders have set their pending orders in 100-pip range to go long on the common European currency.