Dukascopy

EUR/USD to see rising volatility this week

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
61 0 0
"It's probably reasonable to think we can spend time down below $1.05 now."
- National Australia Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook
EUR/USD             bounced back from 1.0730 on Friday and posted an 80-pip loss during the trading session. Monday is important day in terms of EU and US fundamentals. A possible Fed announcement to raise a discount rate may easily push EUR/USD             below 1.06. We are looking at Apr low at 1.0519 as the next reliable support for this currency pair. This level is guarded by monthly/weekly S2 and lower Bollinger band , which are highly unlikely to give up quickly.

Traders' Sentiment
We continue observing the bullish lead over bears of around six percentage points, which makes it a 53-47% distribution of trades opened in the SWFX market. Despite that, only 32% of traders have set their pending orders in 100-pip range to go long on the common European currency.
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