IvanLabrie
Short

EURUSD: Downtrend continuation play

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
810 43 11
As described in the chart, we have a potentially very bearish outcome for this pair.
I'd suggest waiting for the uptrend timer to expire for entry, but we can short aggressively under the highest low if we so desire.
I'll wait one more day, there's no rush and it's good to be methodical.
Initial target is the 1.06141 level, where we had the highest low in the downtrend. Once that level's taken, we can expect the move to continue to the 1.01-0.9 area.
Good luck traders!
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HiTech PRO
2 years ago
Ivan, completely opposite of what I see
EURUSD FACING NO RESISTANCE
the only thing pointing to potential downtrend continuation is the bounce of the downtrend trendline, but I think it will be broken, lets see
+1 Reply
HiTech PRO HiTech
2 years ago
In any case I think we should hit 1.1 before/if going down
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IvanLabrie TOP HiTech
2 years ago
I don't know, but I suspect it's highly possible considering the price action in multiple usd pairs and gold, as well as the dollar index.
Everyone is now bullish on euro, or at least, it's the obvious play now.
A sentiment survey would help here I guess.
My technical setup suggests waiting one more day. If we don't reach the upper target in time, we have a bearish signal, and the entry is a sell stop under he highest low with a 1 atr stop above the high.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
One more thing, notice that we have NO new highs after the big bar up, this is bearish. If we add a lower low to the equation, then that's REALLY bearish price action.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I also have my time target and if this day candle is not bullish, they I will review eurusd
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IvanLabrie TOP HiTech
2 years ago
Yep, that's the plan.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I actually expect 3 consecutive days up
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Add EW for extra flavor:
snapshot

Complete ABC move up, ending diagonal in sight...Not the core of my analysis, but worth looking at, as an extra.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
thanks, i am following Elliot as well, but not convincing me :)
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IvanLabrie TOP HiTech
2 years ago
I could always be wrong...it's good to have a very specific methodology, with detailed entry/exit/add/trim/invalidation variables. I have one, which I learned from Tim West, and that's how I decide wether or not to take a trade and how to manage it.
If you have your own, follow it, it's better to be systematic, you never know when your setups will work, despite them not looking 'right' in your opinion.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Another thing, look at the related ideas and read the comments. Always worth going back over your previous charts as an exercise, and review what you did wrong and what you did right.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
very true, I am doing that
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
precisely, even if you are right, I have to follow my set-up, but obviously it is good to share different views
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IvanLabrie TOP HiTech
2 years ago
Definitely, it enriches us. Good that you stick to your plan, I skipped a beat on USDJPY for instance, shouldn't have covered before reaching my first target, but well...
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
how about that?
snapshot
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IvanLabrie TOP HiTech
2 years ago
If you have doubts about EW, I suggest visiting Tim West's chatroom, he's a very knowledgeable Elliott Wave practicioner (if you ever manage to get a copy of Glenn Neely's "Mastering Elliott Wave" book and read the acknowledgements you'll see why).
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
i am not an EW expect, so definitely worth educating on that... by the way where TWs chatroom?
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
this is produced by EW integrated indicator on tradingview
snapshot
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IvanLabrie TOP HiTech
2 years ago
The indicator is NOT reliable...Elliott Wave is really complex, I wouldn't trust any indicator claiming to produce EW charts.
Click the Chats button under the social tab on the right. You can see one named "Elliott Wave Charting" (I believe I saw a post of yours there)
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
oh yea, thats the one...
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BoonOng IvanLabrie
2 years ago
IMHO, EW is very hard to understand, seriously need a good pair of eyes to see it.
I really like looking at your chart. =)
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HiTech PRO BoonOng
2 years ago
haha, wich one, with the funny EWs? :D
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IvanLabrie TOP HiTech
2 years ago
snapshot

More evidence.
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To be safe, I suggest waiting for the 27th for entry, as long as the upper target isn't reached. My broker feed shows 5 days, not 4.
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Piednoir
2 years ago
Could you tell me which indicator is the "RgMov"?
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IvanLabrie TOP Piednoir
2 years ago
Tim West's proprietary indicator. It's great for trend analysis, and to find hidden levels of support and resistance or potential reversal ahead of price. (I had to subscribe to his Key Hidden Levels package to use it)
The light blue lines are options expirations s/r levels, also from that pack. Good stuff
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Close to confirming a short entry.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
i'd like to see daily close below 1.09, before that should remain bullish
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I placed a limit sell this time, 1% risk.
Good luck if you take it with me.
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Time expired for the long, big range down bar.
I sold the retracement, hope everyone did.
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Good call mate!
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IvanLabrie TOP Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
If this follows up as expected, it'll be a big move towards 1.01 give or take, or at the very least a retest of the low, forming a double bottom and a large reversal.
Try to cover partially to break even if stop is hit, then scale in until the end.
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Yahia.Awes IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I will short on opening for sure with a tp indeed.
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
My SL will be on 1.05 after this is passed by of course. For in case a double bottom being formed. Will end up winning this way on this trade :D
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Update:

snapshot


Time and price target in chart, expect a bullish reaction on April 6th.
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Interesting correction today...time is running out for shorts too.
I covered 90% of my position last night, woke up to a big move up as I expected.
Price action hasn't been bearish enough to warrant a big short.
Let's see how it unfolds but we might not see the lower levels hit at all possibly.
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snapshot


Updated view. Downtrend signal invalidated, correction will be bigger.
If 1 week above the yellow line we can expect to hit the targets above by April 27th.
If target 2 is not met, it'll reverse down to retest the lows.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot

Revised projection, preliminar for now.
Buying a dip into the triangle zone is a safe entry.
Invalidation under the red line.
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snapshot
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Multiple trends, symptoms of a triangle...really hard to navigate these.
A retracement would be a good short entry now.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Looks like we have quite a bit of downside potential here
EURUSD TARGETING 1.04 IN TWO WEEKS
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Forming a triangle again, probably two more smaller swings down then up before the downtrend resumes.

snapshot
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snapshot

An alternate count would be that the triangle started on that WXY move up, and will shoot down resuming usd strength.
We will have to watch it unfold to confirm either thesis but know that price action will be choppy and no trend trading methodology will work well until this pattern is unfolding.
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