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Last week, the February inflation indicators for the United States were released, showing a higher level than expected. It indicated that contrary to market expectations, inflationary pressures are not abating. There's speculation that the Fed may adjust its dot plot at this week's FOMC meeting and concerns are rising that the rate cut may be postponed until the latter half of the year, not June.
March 18: Eurozone February Consumer Price Index will be released.
March 19: BOJ Interest Rate Decision. It's anticipated that BOJ will halt its negative interest rate policy at this meeting.
March 21: FOMC meeting is scheduled, with a rate hold expected. The dot plot will be released, and remarks on future monetary policy will be crucial.
March 22: Speech by Chairman Powell.
The euro has been forming a downward trend and has shown signs of rebounding after hitting the 1.07000 line recently. There's an expectation of a rise to the 1.10000 line, but there's some concern about potential abrupt changes in direction due to variables this week. Considering the upcoming releases, movement can be anticipated in two ways:
First, short-term rise followed by resistance at the 1.10000 line, leading to medium to long-term decline. Second, breaking below the 1.07000 line, leading to short-term decline towards the 1.04500 line.
If movements deviate from expectations, we will analyze again and adjust the strategy.
A potential rejection from the descending trendline resistance could validate the double-top pattern, possibly initiating a downward price movement. Identifying this resistance level was a good call.
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