claydoctor

EURUSD and stocks, OIL

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
201 0 1
Our worst days in stocks have come when oil             is down with the USDJPY             pair, and EURUSD             is up. EURUSD             has been in the trading range and looks as if it has room to reach the top of that channel once again, with support, dollar down, and OIL             , for reasons also and other than dollar weakness may be heading down from over supply and lack of new demand pressures. This would result in the predicted (other charts) additional 15% down leg in stocks . I see a real problem if, while everyone is not trading and waiting for the FOMC decision, something else happens, like china currency thing, Brazil currency thing, other currency things, OIl             company credit defaults, small country bankruptcies, the two volcanoes in Mexico blows their tops and cause extreme damage, or just pick a world event,that rattles the markets. With the futures giving a 26% chance of a rate hike, and they do? Wow what a spike in VIX             would result. And on that, if they don't raise it makes the markets worry about the economies of the world (contraction is real, deflation fears stoked once again) , if they do raise, it shocks the markets. If they do some sort of hybrid, it just casts doubts, so I don't think there is a good thing they can do to show they are in control (just like china BTW), This just all supports a NOT happy result to Thursday, whatever they decide.
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