JeffKip
Long

EURUSD Bullish Probability as Fed and Risk Measures Balance Out

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
523 0 8
Technicals:
The 1.49 area was well respected as resistance. This level also happened to be a 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement Level for the high and low between 1.17 and 1.09 respectively. The bears may move in to take further control of the pair.

The greenback is still in a relative uptrend as major lows haven't been broken. My personal strategy is therefore to look for Long positions at the 1.13 psychological price handle, that confluences with the 50.0 % Fibonacci Retracement Level of the most recent bull wave from the 1.110 low to the 1.149 high.

Fundamentals:
For the US dollar             to gain further traction against the euro             , it needs those market measures of Fed rate timing to turn around. In early-August, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October was seen as nearly 50 %; now it is only 6 %. Any indication by these market measures that a rate hike in 2015 is a real possibility - now seen as only a 30.5 % chance of happening - could prove to be a big boon for the greenback amid what should be a flurry of central bank activity this week.

On the other hand, bullish FX:EURUSD             rallies may be capped with the ECB meeting this week.
Comment: Long Position taken with the occurence of the Morning Star on the H4 TF.
Comment: +50 Pips Gross.
SL at BE.
Comment: So slow.
Probably in anticipation of the ECB Meeting.
Trade closed: stop reached: Closed at BE.
Draghi and team were more dovish than expected.
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