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Feb 17, 2020 4:45 AM

EURUSD Macro Update Short

Euro Fx/U.S. DollarFXCM

Description

The Euro has sunk and moved in line with our last market update however our models are now signalling signs of greater downside risk than a short/medium risk reversal.

Macro view

Options
- A bearish shift in market sentiment with put options (bearish bets) now claiming the highest premium in nearly four months
- One-month risk reversals (EUR1MRR) (higher volatility put premiums), crossed below zero on the 10th February and fell to -0.425 last Friday, the lowest level seen since 29th October 2019

Futures
- Hedge funds (leveraged funds) substantially increasing EUR short positions

Thematics
- Dollar bid remain supported under risk aversion

Technicals
- Symmetrical swing into 1.07xx institutional floor likely before any meaningful correction

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