The EUR/USD pair has continued its downward trajectory, in line with our previous weekend analysis, now hovering around the 1.06100 mark. This decline coincides with a convergence of multiple technical indicators and recent economic developments. Notably, the price action has entered a potential Fibonacci reversal zone, coupled with an oversold condition signaled by the RSI indicator. Additionally, there are indications of a possible Harmonic pattern Gartley formation, adding complexity to our forecast.
On the economic front, market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's policy stance in June is predominantly static, with the CME FedWatch Tool reflecting an approximate 80% probability of the Fed maintaining its current policy rates. This consensus suggests that the USD may have further room to appreciate, particularly if Fed Chair Powell adopts a more hawkish tone in upcoming communications.
Furthermore, geopolitical tensions initially acted as a restraint on the USD's upward momentum during Monday's early trading session, contributing to a slight uptick in the EUR/USD pair. However, this sentiment shifted following the release of robust Retail Sales data from the US for March, resulting in a surge in US Treasury bond yields and subsequently bolstering the USD's strength.
Considering these factors, our analysis is inclined towards a potential long setup for the EUR/USD pair, although we remain vigilant of any shifts in market dynamics and geopolitical developments that could influence currency movements in the near term.
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