This pair has been moving in a horizontal channel since the beginning of this year. The 2015 March-May move Fibonacci levels have been acting as support and resistance on many occasions since then. Price is now clearly consolidating in a triangle: price action moving up and below the 10MA and 20MA, RSI and stochastics around the middle and BBands squeezing.
So no clear direction at the moment on this timeframe, therefor I am not currently trading it on this timeframe (only intraday for me currently)!
However, price action will inevitably break the triangle and then the battle between bulls and bears is on!
I'm expecting price to false-break the triangle and then choose direction!
For me, most likely is that we will first (getting used to it? ;-)) have some more choppy trading until the break…, and then I would favor a continued move to the upside towards the 50MA which could now act as a “magnet” for PA (price could possibly meet the 50MA around the upper channel boundary).
A false breakout of the triangle to the downside in the coming days/week will give me extra confidence for trading the move up!
If the direction will eventually turn out to be upwards, we will most likely see a bounce from the 50MA – upper channel boundary.
I would however be careful to trade it since it is possible that we will then be forming an ascending triangle which would limit further decline and give bulls confidence to break the upper channel and 50MA and move up to 1.1800, which is the 38.2 Fibonacci level of the move down which started last year in May…
I will be looking for further upside beyond that level and will be setting my targets according to the Fibonacci levels of that same move and will also be watching the 100MA and 200MA for resistance.
As for the downside I will only act on a down move on this timeframe when price breaks and closes below the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the March-May move, and probably even after getting confirmation from the candle after the breakout-candle, because of the possible false-breakout scenario which I’m expecting.
Allthough I favor the upside at the moment I am ready to act when it breaks to the downside!
The target to the downside is obviously the lower channel boundary, and beyond that…, well everyone is screaming parity but I guess we’ll just have to wait and see…
Any ideas, reactions, criticism would be much appreciated.
However, first idea published so please be gentle... ;-) :-)
Happy trading to all!!
So no clear direction at the moment on this timeframe, therefor I am not currently trading it on this timeframe (only intraday for me currently)!
However, price action will inevitably break the triangle and then the battle between bulls and bears is on!
I'm expecting price to false-break the triangle and then choose direction!
For me, most likely is that we will first (getting used to it? ;-)) have some more choppy trading until the break…, and then I would favor a continued move to the upside towards the 50MA which could now act as a “magnet” for PA (price could possibly meet the 50MA around the upper channel boundary).
A false breakout of the triangle to the downside in the coming days/week will give me extra confidence for trading the move up!
If the direction will eventually turn out to be upwards, we will most likely see a bounce from the 50MA – upper channel boundary.
I would however be careful to trade it since it is possible that we will then be forming an ascending triangle which would limit further decline and give bulls confidence to break the upper channel and 50MA and move up to 1.1800, which is the 38.2 Fibonacci level of the move down which started last year in May…
I will be looking for further upside beyond that level and will be setting my targets according to the Fibonacci levels of that same move and will also be watching the 100MA and 200MA for resistance.
As for the downside I will only act on a down move on this timeframe when price breaks and closes below the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the March-May move, and probably even after getting confirmation from the candle after the breakout-candle, because of the possible false-breakout scenario which I’m expecting.
Allthough I favor the upside at the moment I am ready to act when it breaks to the downside!
The target to the downside is obviously the lower channel boundary, and beyond that…, well everyone is screaming parity but I guess we’ll just have to wait and see…
Any ideas, reactions, criticism would be much appreciated.
However, first idea published so please be gentle... ;-) :-)
Happy trading to all!!
