Breaking below 1.0681/69 would allow for another leg lower. The EUR/USD has maintained key support at 1.0681/69. This supports our base case scenario of a long period of ranging, with this level expected to define the low end of a new range.
The recent false breakout above key resistance at the 50% retracement of the 2021/2022 fall at 1.0944 adds to the possibility of a rangebound phase, with the sharp fall likely cleansing positioning significantly.
The top of the range is now expected to be 1.1000/35. A break below 1.0681/69, on the other hand, would open up another leg lower, with no meaningful support until 1.0483/0463, where we would look for a floor if reached.