4xForecaster

EUR vs. $USD - Potential Wolfe Wave in S/T | #euro #forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Friends,

Here is yet another completion of a Wolfe Wave geometry as price carves an incremental higher-high. It appears that the Wolfe Wave is weaved by most of the $USD pairs, suggesting that the $USD is dominating the recent price action.


snapshot


As with the recent $USD pairs posted, in this case we are also expecting a probable bullish reaction in the US Dollar             . Whether this occurs at the current price locum or at a 5-prime position, the vicinity of Point-4 is likely to reveal bullish forces keeping price above 1-4 Line, and likely above Point-2 of the geometry. A breach below these levels would require a revision of this and other USD-related analyses.

Look at the recent $EURUSD analyses I have shared for a long-term bullish outlook in the $EUR, as remains the case in this Forex leader.


OVERALL, the nascent geometry offers high-probability ranges within which price is likely to react with some degree of consistency. In this case, a Wolfe Wave has matured to the point of readying a counter-trend, back towards the 1-4 Line. Any adverse excursion above current levels will be dealt with using rules of the Geo             , but expect the level of Point-4 to be re-visited in the most immediate term.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
22 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD continues to roll from Pt-5 as forecast; Price traversed Wolfe Wave; Eyes 1-4 Line:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #ECB #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
TECH-NOTE:

While an interim decline is expected per this Wolfe Wave geometry completing at Point-5, expect the declined to be measured in the order of a significant Fibonacci number. Here, 0.618 appears to fall in line with a significant R/S levels:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
25 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD continues to decline as forecast; Eyes 1-4 Line of Wolfe Wave, or 0.618 #fibonacci:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #euro #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
28 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------


$EURUSD hit target, completes Wolfe Wave cycle; Predictive Model eyes bullish 1.178 target:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #ECB #forex
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4x_addict 4xForecaster
Hi David... i've just put this together .. what do you think?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/c61BvotE/
Reply
4x_addict 4x_addict
this link should hopefully appear within the comment area
Possible Grexit Scenario?
+2 Reply
Hello 4x_addict - I like it a lot. Excellent hawkeyes.

Here is a bit of a refinement, using the Geo's internal constructions:

1 - The 1-2 Leg is a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, built retrospectively. So, first look for point-d and point-c, and project this line back to the next best-fit move, which becomes the a-b segment - The importance here is to go to the NEAREST spike that would represent Point-1 of the larger, developing geometry. If the 1-3 Line is below the total geometry, then the 1-3 Line has to slope DOWN, and therefore Point-1 has to be above Point-3 - The contrary is true for a geometry where the 1-3 Line is above, hence Point-1 would naturally have to be below Points-3 along a rising 1-3 Line, right?

2 - Then, project he 1-3 Line, mark ALL points, and look for the "Tunneling", which is a "natural" spacing in price 9best appreciated with candles, wherein price is seemingly allowed to pass through from Point-1 to Point-4 touch the least number of candle bodies, and at its best, would thread through from candle tip to candle tip. This is your 1-4 Line in the Wolfe Wave, also known as the Target Line. In the Wolfe Wave methodology, this is the "reason to be" of the Wolfe Wave, but in the "Geo", this line is shown to be weaker in terms of probability compared to the application of the Geo's Off-Set Rule.

3 - Use Fibonacci extensions between points 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4, and see whether any of the following values line up (i.e.: "Fibonacci clusters"):

1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 and 1.618.

Typically, the 1-2 Leg extension tends to express itself in the order of a 1.414 to 1.618, so I would use that one first, and measure up all other extensions in comparison.

If the clusters are close to one another, but not perfectly lined up, then use the range offered between the 1-2 and 3-4 extensions as a probable pivot range.

Kapish?


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4x_addict 4xForecaster
Thanks David.. Kapish..
I will update the chart and post.. thanks for all your efforts.
Reply
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD stomped; Testing of lower lows probable; Look for these prob. #fibonacci extensions:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #ECB #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Dear David, Here is my another find
EURUSD Bullish WW

kmk.msp
+1 Reply
@kmk.msp - Excellent.

Correlations in your Stoch-RSI also calls for Point-4 as being a structural top according to its Negative Divergence (... Not bearish divergence) that is printing in that chart.

Very nice.

David
+3 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
Thanks David
kmk.msp
Reply
09 JUL 2015 - UPDATE: Tech-Note

For the record, the nascent geometry required an adjustment as shown in the chart, where the initial Point-4 redefined its locus to a lower segment of the Geo - See chart:


snapshot



This would result in a softer 1-4 Line slope.


David
+3 Reply
Diabolicus 4xForecaster
So former 5 became 3, wouldn't that require the 2-3 fib extensions to be readjusted as well?
+2 Reply
Hello @Diabolicus - Yes, it may or may not change much of the potential Fib-based targets.

There are THREE areas I would use to place a FIB extension:

1 - The 1-2 Leg
2 - The 2-3 Leg
and
3 - The 3-4 Leg

These are the most important levels, since several rules of this geometry seem to revolve around these point.

However, there are minor areas as well, and these would be structural highs and lows (i.e.: price levels that have attained significant high and low levels.

The high/low I decided to keep in the chart is such a level:

snapshot



Now, if I maintained the current 2-3 Leg reference and added the prior 3-4 Leg (i.e.: using the structural high/low before Point-3 and Point-4 were shifted to the right), you will notice that they would line up perfectly well, such that:

1-2 Leg x 1.414-Fib = 3-4 Leg x 1.414-Fib

AND

1-2 Leg x 1.618-Fib = 3-4 Leg x 1.618-Fib


See chart below for illustration of this perfect alignment:

snapshot



Therefore, even though the prior locus for Point-3 and Point-4 may have lost their relevance relative to the geometry, they remain quite relevant by virtue of their structural definitions.

Is this making sense? Are you able to verify this on your chart as well?


David
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
CORRECTION:

The Fibs are not one-to-one, but instead the 3-4 Leg aligns with structure corresponding to Point-2 (at its 1.414-Fib), and aligns with 1-2 Leg x 1.414 at its 1.618-Fib extensions.

David
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Tech-Note:

Here are three Fibonacci scales, I have numbered I, II and III - Following are interesting Fib clusters:

I and II align at Fib extensions 1.272 and 1.618, respectively - See following chart:

snapshot



II and III align at Fib extensions 1.414 and 1.618, respectively - See following chart:

snapshot



I, II and III align at Fib extensions 1.000, 1.272 and 1.414, respectively - See following chart:

snapshot



David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Tech-Note - Based on the trifecta of confluence among I, II and III, expect the highest bullish resistance to occur as price reaches 1.08182 - For the structural trader, this would make sense, since it would correspond to the level of a recent higher-low structure, but would not necessarily see the relevance in terms of Fibonacci confluence.

In contrast, the Fibonacci-based trader would see the confluence as too great a relevance to grant the structure to the left any more value than this trifecta of a cluster.

In any case, the market is choke-full of reasonable clues. It is the superimposition of say structural analysis plus Fibonacci-based rationale that would make a strong argument in technical analysis, not either one alone.

Then, there are occult geometries, which dig a little deeper down slippery rabbit holes.

David
+4 Reply
iznogood 4xForecaster
David..., many thanks for the fib's examples...:))))
+2 Reply
Diabolicus 4xForecaster
Now that makes perfect sense, thanks for the in-depth explanation, I'm still in the process of learning the whole concept. Assuming we hit a 5 prime target at 1.08182, then according to your geo offset rule the most probable upside target would be limited by point 4 at 1.11204, not the 1-4 profit line (which in this case is only slightly above it?)
snapshot
+3 Reply
Correct.
+3 Reply
10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD still w/in confinement of Wolfe Wave/Geo; Would retrace 0.618 #fibonacci at 1.12356; Bearish:

snapshot


$EUR $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
10 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

As usual, Point-4 is being re-adjusted as the geometry continues to evolve. Of particular interest here is the fact that this particular geometric development has reached a Point-4 whose alignment with prior internal structures is now coming in perfect alignment with the "Tunneling" concept. This increases the chance of a reversal around this level.

For the Fibonacci trader, watch for 1.12356 level, which would represent a 61.8% retracement of the geometry's 2-3 Leg.

Have a fantastic Friday.

David
+2 Reply
14 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD continues its downward geometric course towards Point-5; Eyes probability of 1.07530:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
David I'm tracking something like this:

snapshot


while the small correction we are in as I type might end up swinging higher and dragging on today and the move down may not be as decisive and occur as soon as I'd like it, I've run a bunch of extensions and not sure how we can make a significant new low with the momentum we have now. Also, looking at AU and WTI they all seem ready for a reversal in the near term, after a new low today or tomorrow perhaps.

I could be reading things wrong of course :)
+2 Reply
Hello @G_Man,

Looking at the Geo (and not the WW) as a stand-alone feature, here are the requirements for its internal construction (although not ALL have to be present, but the more the better):


1 - CONDITION ONE - The 1-2 Leg represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry (there is an alternate that exists which I have encountered only once, in which the symmetry is inverted, but for now, let's keep it at a simple ab = cd expression)

2 - CONDITION TWO - The 2-3 Leg offers a comple double zig-zag or triple zig-zag similar to an Elliott Wave DZ or TZ - The best way to look at the most consistent internal geometry that would fit the Geo is to look at two small ZZ's joined by a large connecting spike, which would act as a mirror in-between - In YOUR chart, this would be what connects points 3 and 4 together - here is your chart:

snapshot



In contrast, I have modified my chart last week where I shifted these two points forward, keeping in mind that the internal complexity of the 2-3 Leg has to be maintained - Here is my (current) version:

snapshot



The MAIN difference between the two (each version is correct in its own right, your representing a Wolfe Wave, whereas mine is "conscious" of its internal geometry requirements of the Geo), is that the Geo opens up to a possible decline to complete its geometry at Point-5.


Aside from the geometries, the Predictive/Forecasting Model is offering data that remains bearish, with the most proximal target defined at:

1.09392

and the most distal defined at:

1.08579


I have not inscribed these targets in the chart, as they represent added data that fall in line with the directional bias (bearish) for now, but do not add any more precision to what has already been defined as targets.


To be sure, the geometries (Wolfe waves and Geo) are not competing. It is simply that they both define a probable path, whereby the Wolfe Wave completed its cycle at Point-5 in the way that your charts defines (which was what I had initially offered until last week - Here is how it looked on 07 JUL 2015:
snapshot
), whereas the Geo makes its own internal conditional demands that have not yet been met - The Geo stands in contrast to the Wolfe Wave by these very internal construction conditions.

Subsequent features of the Geo are:

3 - CONDITION THREE - 3-4 Leg is typically a large ZZ.


David
+3 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
Great, thanks, looks like it's playing out nicely
+1 Reply
23 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD remains capped at Geo's 5'; Bearish outlook prevails with following targets:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #euro #forex #ECB
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
24 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD continues to adhere to forecast path; Predictive Model remains net-bearish:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #euro #ECB #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
22 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:

Based on the recent price action, the lower Fibonacci extensions which we had defined earlier as possible springboard levels for a yet-to-been attained bullish targets have been ignored - Instead, price rallied, ignoring these Fib-defined levels and moved on every so closely to the Model-defined target last April 29th 2015, namely:

TG-Hi = 1.17801 - 29 APR 2015

At this point, we are left to ponder on the technical mechanism by which price might reach not only that target, but possibly pursue more august levels.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The Model offers the following set of charts:


$EURUSD - H4 Chart:
snapshot

- In this H4 chart, a smaller Geo illustrates completion of its entire cycle as price found support at that small Geo's Point-4 level, as expected per the Geo's Off-Set Rule. A larger Geo (BLUE) is also shown, having consumed its own 5-point regimen, but now contemplating a 1-4 Line validation, which is the level which the Wolfe Wave aims as its Take-Profit dynamic level. In the mean time, a mid-size Geo (GREY) completed a 5-point regimen as well, at a 5-prime position. Here again, the geometric implication is that of the high-probability reversal towards that Geo (GREY)'s Point-4 level, as per its same compensatory geometric Off-Set Rule - See dashed arrow delineating the probable price pathway with a solid floor defined at that Geo (GREY)'s Point-4 level.


$EURUSD - DAILY Chart:
snapshot

In this DAILY chart, a most immediate ceiling is speculated at 1.15254, short of the TG-Hi = 1.17801 defined on 29 APR 2015. The colored area (light pink) defines the floor just discussed in H4, as well as the potential interim ceiling as price is likely to negotiate higher notes. In this same DAILY chart, there are TWO new bullish targets, defined as:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015.

These two optimistic targets have a reason for being, which we might attempt to justify at the WEEKLY and MONTHLY levels, IF and only IF price were to rally above the most proximate 1.17801 target. Note that this 1.17801 target would represent a bracketing of the Fibonacci extensions 1.414 and 1.618, relative to the reactive price action that ensued a multi-year bearish swing.


Question now should be geared towards whether a minimal 0.386 or even an intermediate 0.500 Fibonacci retracement is worth considering as price appears to gain added bullish momentum - This is exactly what we might find in the following WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, especially as these levels relate to the TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015 and TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015, just defined today.



$EURUSD - WEEKLY Chart:
snapshot

This WEEKLY chart is important as it may offer a justification of further rallying. What is illustrated is the completion of a 5-point regiment through the Geo, with an implied expectation of a reactive rally, as should occur at completion of this geometry. The Geo is now complete with its reciprocal ab = cd symmetry in Leg 1-2 (here, symmetry is inverted), a complex Elliott Wave-based TZZ in its Leg 2-3, as well as a simpler Elliott Wave ZZ linking the Leg 3-4 (Point-4 could arguably be at the prior structural high right below 1.5000, but this would have little impact in the projections of the Geo's targets).


$EURUSD - MONTHLY Chart:
snapshot

As mentioned above, I would attempt to demonstrate a possible technical mechanism by which price might rally to the targets just defined - Here again:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015

In essence, this MONTHLY chart offers a Fibonacci-based rationale for such possible mechanism of ascent, considering that:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.27069 - 22 AUG 2015 is nearly coming into alignment with 0.386-Fib (for this monthly scale, of course)

whereas

2 - TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015 is coming in near perfect alignment with 0.500-Fib, valued at 1.32491.


OVERALL:

Above bullish scenario would become invalidated if price were to carve out lower-lows. However, for the time being, there is a sense that as the #USDollar continues to weaken, antipodian currencies and commodities are likely to take flight (see recent predictive analysis and forecasts in #USDollar, $GLD, $XPT and $WTI).

At this point, I would simply concentrate on what might occur relative to the most immediate target define back in APRIL 2015, as this level remains a risk for bulls.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
+2 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Price fell significantly into range, as forecast - Look for the possibility of this geometric development:


+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
snapshot


David
+6 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD declines from forecast range; Floor near 1.1016 firms up vs 2-4 Line; Targets intact:

snapshot


#euro $EUR $USD #ECB
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
28 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Expect a time-consumptive ab = cd connecting points 3 and 4:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+5 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Excellent David, thanks a lot.
I actually went short and was aiming for 1.1017 for a buy.
A nice confidence boost from your setup. ;)
Have a good weekend!
+1 Reply
01 SEP 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURUSD spouses prescribed forecast pathway; Limited downside; Bullish:

snapshot


$EUR $USD #euro #ECB $DAX #gold #forex
----------


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Great stuff.
Reply
03 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$EURUSD remains close to forecast path; bulls favored:

snapshot


#euro $USD $EUR #ECB


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


So far, price has been quite faithful to the dashed forecast line, espousing the contours which we had laid down in anticipation of a move to the UP-side.

Looking from a separate perspective (and here, I call on to all erudite Elliottician to weigh in, so if you know any, please do invite them to share their views, as I do not count myself as an expert in this particular wave counting methodology compared to better learned ones in our midst), there is a possibility of a RARE event occurring in Elliott Wave corrections, in the form of a Triple-Zigzag correction with internals as defined in the chart, and plots defined as W-X-Y-XX-Z - See daily chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM: In this W-X-Y-XX-Z, the following internals are quite well respected, such that:

1 - W = 1-2-3-4-5 in a bullish impulse
2 - X = a-b-c internals
3 - Y = a-b-c with internals omitted for clarity where a = a-b-c, b = a-b-c- and c = 1-2-3-4-5
4 - XX = a-b-c - Note that I have used a reciprocal pattern where a = c, pointing to 1.08238.

Finally, the last reaction expected is expressed in Z, which I expect to be in a counter-trend impulse, whose projection is based off of a standard 1.618-Fibonacci extension, such that:

Z = 1.618 x Y.


If you have further comments or know someone who can weigh in on this feel free. This is quite big in terms of outcome, not just on the technical level, but from a market-wide perspective. For now, the lofty targets that have been defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model on 29 April 2015 as TG-Hi = 1.17801 - 29 APR 2015, as well as the two defined on 22 August 2015 as TG-Hi = 1.27089 - 22 AUG 2015 and TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015 stand as separate and independent from this Elliott Wave analysis, which appears to be able to confirm only one.

Question here is whether the Triple Zigzag ("TZ") is valid, and whether it has the ability to through a much higher Z-wave that would reach TG-Hi = 1.27069, which is the most probable of the two lesser probable targets (qualitative targets are less probable than numerical targets, such as TG-1, TG-2, and TG-Hi is most often a reversal level than TG-Hix).

Thanks.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM-2 - Following are the rules and guidelines for identifying and labeling a Triple Zigzag ("TZ"):

1) Wave W must be a Zigzag

2) Wave X can be any correction except an Expanding Triangle

3) Wave X must be smaller than wave W by price

4) Wave Y must be a Zigzag

5) Wave Y must be equal to or longer than Wave X by price

6) Wave XX can be any correction except an Expanding Triangle

7) Wave XX must be smaller than wave Y by price

8) Wave Z must be a Zigzag

9) Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price

So far, all of the requirements concerning waves W, X, Y and XX have been met or meeting expectation.

Outlook remains BULLISH for the $EUR in the most immediate future, whereas the intermediate horizon remains BEARISH, as discussed in the context of a strengthening USDollar.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

Further downside remains a possibility here ... Look for the simple ab = cd (pink) geometries as a possible downside pathway:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4x_addict 4xForecaster
Hey David.. what do you think of this
EURUSD - Study
Reply
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