EUR vs. $USD - Potential Wolfe Wave in S/T | #euro #forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar

Here is yet another completion of a Wolfe Wave geometry as price carves an incremental higher-high. It appears that the Wolfe Wave is weaved by most of the $USD pairs, suggesting that the $USD is dominating the recent price action.

As with the recent $USD pairs posted, in this case we are also expecting a probable bullish reaction in the US Dollar             . Whether this occurs at the current price locum or at a 5-prime position, the vicinity of Point-4 is likely to reveal bullish forces keeping price above 1-4 Line, and likely above Point-2 of the geometry. A breach below these levels would require a revision of this and other USD-related analyses.

Look at the recent $EURUSD analyses I have shared for a long-term bullish outlook in the $EUR, as remains the case in this Forex leader.

OVERALL, the nascent geometry offers high-probability ranges within which price is likely to react with some degree of consistency. In this case, a Wolfe Wave has matured to the point of readying a counter-trend, back towards the 1-4 Line. Any adverse excursion above current levels will be dealt with using rules of the Geo             , but expect the level of Point-4 to be re-visited in the most immediate term.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

David Alcindor
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02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

Further downside remains a possibility here ... Look for the simple ab = cd (pink) geometries as a possible downside pathway:

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4x_addict 4xForecaster
Hey David.. what do you think of this
25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

So far, price has been quite faithful to the dashed forecast line, espousing the contours which we had laid down in anticipation of a move to the UP-side.

Looking from a separate perspective (and here, I call on to all erudite Elliottician to weigh in, so if you know any, please do invite them to share their views, as I do not count myself as an expert in this particular wave counting methodology compared to better learned ones in our midst), there is a possibility of a RARE event occurring in Elliott Wave corrections, in the form of a Triple-Zigzag correction with internals as defined in the chart, and plots defined as W-X-Y-XX-Z - See daily chart:

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM: In this W-X-Y-XX-Z, the following internals are quite well respected, such that:

1 - W = 1-2-3-4-5 in a bullish impulse
2 - X = a-b-c internals
3 - Y = a-b-c with internals omitted for clarity where a = a-b-c, b = a-b-c- and c = 1-2-3-4-5
4 - XX = a-b-c - Note that I have used a reciprocal pattern where a = c, pointing to 1.08238.

Finally, the last reaction expected is expressed in Z, which I expect to be in a counter-trend impulse, whose projection is based off of a standard 1.618-Fibonacci extension, such that:

Z = 1.618 x Y.

If you have further comments or know someone who can weigh in on this feel free. This is quite big in terms of outcome, not just on the technical level, but from a market-wide perspective. For now, the lofty targets that have been defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model on 29 April 2015 as TG-Hi = 1.17801 - 29 APR 2015, as well as the two defined on 22 August 2015 as TG-Hi = 1.27089 - 22 AUG 2015 and TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015 stand as separate and independent from this Elliott Wave analysis, which appears to be able to confirm only one.

Question here is whether the Triple Zigzag ("TZ") is valid, and whether it has the ability to through a much higher Z-wave that would reach TG-Hi = 1.27069, which is the most probable of the two lesser probable targets (qualitative targets are less probable than numerical targets, such as TG-1, TG-2, and TG-Hi is most often a reversal level than TG-Hix).


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM-2 - Following are the rules and guidelines for identifying and labeling a Triple Zigzag ("TZ"):

1) Wave W must be a Zigzag

2) Wave X can be any correction except an Expanding Triangle

3) Wave X must be smaller than wave W by price

4) Wave Y must be a Zigzag

5) Wave Y must be equal to or longer than Wave X by price

6) Wave XX can be any correction except an Expanding Triangle

7) Wave XX must be smaller than wave Y by price

8) Wave Z must be a Zigzag

9) Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price

So far, all of the requirements concerning waves W, X, Y and XX have been met or meeting expectation.

Outlook remains BULLISH for the $EUR in the most immediate future, whereas the intermediate horizon remains BEARISH, as discussed in the context of a strengthening USDollar.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
03 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

$EURUSD remains close to forecast path; bulls favored:

#euro $USD $EUR #ECB

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
01 SEP 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
$EURUSD spouses prescribed forecast pathway; Limited downside; Bullish:

$EUR $USD #euro #ECB $DAX #gold #forex

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Great stuff.
28 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Expect a time-consumptive ab = cd connecting points 3 and 4:

David Alcindor
+5 Reply
IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Excellent David, thanks a lot.
I actually went short and was aiming for 1.1017 for a buy.
A nice confidence boost from your setup. ;)
Have a good weekend!
+1 Reply
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