Here is yet another completion of a geometry as price carves an incremental higher-high. It appears that the is weaved by most of the $USD pairs, suggesting that the $USD is dominating the recent price action.
As with the recent $USD pairs posted, in this case we are also expecting a probable reaction in the US Dollar . Whether this occurs at the current price locum or at a 5-prime position, the vicinity of Point-4 is likely to reveal forces keeping price above 1-4 Line, and likely above Point-2 of the geometry. A breach below these levels would require a revision of this and other USD-related analyses.
Look at the recent $EURUSD analyses I have shared for a long-term outlook in the $EUR, as remains the case in this Forex leader.
OVERALL, the nascent geometry offers high-probability ranges within which price is likely to react with some degree of consistency. In this case, a has matured to the point of readying a counter-trend, back towards the 1-4 Line. Any adverse excursion above current levels will be dealt with using rules of the Geo , but expect the level of Point-4 to be re-visited in the most immediate term.
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So far, price has been quite faithful to the dashed forecast line, espousing the contours which we had laid down in anticipation of a move to the UP-side.
Looking from a separate perspective (and here, I call on to all erudite Elliottician to weigh in, so if you know any, please do invite them to share their views, as I do not count myself as an expert in this particular wave counting methodology compared to better learned ones in our midst), there is a possibility of a RARE event occurring in Elliott Wave corrections, in the form of a Triple-Zigzag correction with internals as defined in the chart, and plots defined as W-X-Y-XX-Z - See daily chart:
1 - W = 1-2-3-4-5 in a bullish impulse
2 - X = a-b-c internals
3 - Y = a-b-c with internals omitted for clarity where a = a-b-c, b = a-b-c- and c = 1-2-3-4-5
4 - XX = a-b-c - Note that I have used a reciprocal pattern where a = c, pointing to 1.08238.
Finally, the last reaction expected is expressed in Z, which I expect to be in a counter-trend impulse, whose projection is based off of a standard 1.618-Fibonacci extension, such that:
Z = 1.618 x Y.
If you have further comments or know someone who can weigh in on this feel free. This is quite big in terms of outcome, not just on the technical level, but from a market-wide perspective. For now, the lofty targets that have been defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model on 29 April 2015 as TG-Hi = 1.17801 - 29 APR 2015, as well as the two defined on 22 August 2015 as TG-Hi = 1.27089 - 22 AUG 2015 and TG-Hix = 1.32593 - 22 AUG 2015 stand as separate and independent from this Elliott Wave analysis, which appears to be able to confirm only one.
Question here is whether the Triple Zigzag ("TZ") is valid, and whether it has the ability to through a much higher Z-wave that would reach TG-Hi = 1.27069, which is the most probable of the two lesser probable targets (qualitative targets are less probable than numerical targets, such as TG-1, TG-2, and TG-Hi is most often a reversal level than TG-Hix).
1) Wave W must be a Zigzag
2) Wave X can be any correction except an Expanding Triangle
3) Wave X must be smaller than wave W by price
4) Wave Y must be a Zigzag
5) Wave Y must be equal to or longer than Wave X by price
6) Wave XX can be any correction except an Expanding Triangle
7) Wave XX must be smaller than wave Y by price
8) Wave Z must be a Zigzag
9) Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price
So far, all of the requirements concerning waves W, X, Y and XX have been met or meeting expectation.
Outlook remains BULLISH for the $EUR in the most immediate future, whereas the intermediate horizon remains BEARISH, as discussed in the context of a strengthening USDollar.