EUR/USD – H4 Wedge Pattern | Dollar Weakness & Fed Cut Bets

Nov 9

🧠 Setup Overview:
EUR/USD is forming a falling wedge pattern on the H4 chart — a potential bullish reversal structure after weeks of downside pressure. The pair is testing the upper wedge trendline, suggesting a possible breakout, but confirmation is still pending. EURUSD

📊 Trading Plan: ✅ Bullish Scenario:

🟢Watch for a confirmed breakout above the wedge and cloud resistance zone.
🟢If confirmed, expect a move toward 1.1730 (1st Resistance) and 1.1800 (2nd Resistance).

⚙️ Technical Levels:
🟢 1st Resistance: 1.1732
🟢 2nd Resistance: 1.1804
🔴 Support Zone: 1.1500 – 1.1470

🧩 Fundamental Updates (Today – 9 Nov 2025):
1️⃣ U.S. Treasury yields slipped slightly as surveys showed weaker consumer confidence, softening the dollar’s tone.

2️⃣ Fed rate cut expectations increased — markets now price a 66% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, according to CME FedWatch.

3️⃣ Government funding worries: renewed concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown weighed on sentiment and limited USD demand.

🔴These factors combined create short-term bearish pressure on USD, which may fuel a EUR/USD rebound if momentum sustains above the wedge.🔴

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⚠️ Disclaimer:
This post is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and manage risk carefully before entering trades.

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Nov 10

Note

Hopes that the U.S. government could soon reopen weighed on Japanese yen and boosted the growth-exposed Australian dollar and European currencies did not change much.

Nov 11

Trade active

Nov 11

Note

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Fundamental Updates : ⚠️⚠️
Senate Approves bill to end US Government shutdown📣📣

Upcoming Economic Indicators will help clarify the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy.

Nov 15

Note

overall value of stocks worldwide went down, while the interest rates on government bonds went up. This happened because people are losing hope that the central bank will lower interest rates soon.

Nov 15

Trade closed: target reached