ICmarkets
Short

EUR/USD: Technical outlook and review...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
565 0 2
Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows that the Euro             depreciated for the third consecutive week losing over 340 pips into the close (1.0487). This move completely wiped out the weekly demand area seen coming in at 1.0499-1.0740, and at the same time, likely opened the doors to further downside towards 1.0411 – a long-term weekly swap level that can be seen stretching as far back as 1997!

Daily Timeframe: (Similar to the weekly analysis) From the daily timeframe we can see that the Euro             saw a daily close below 1.0499, a daily swap level, which, if you remember from the weekly timeframe , is the low of the aforementioned weekly demand. This break lower has, like we just mentioned above, likely opened the gates for prices to challenge the aforementioned long-term weekly swap level.

4hr Timeframe: Friday saw the Euro             take out the 1.0600 handle, and continue south to engulf the daily swap level mentioned above at 1.0499. This move has very likely consumed any sell stops below this zone, and potentially triggered in any breakout sellers’ orders, thus opening up the possibility that a further decline in value could very well be seen this week down to the 1.0400 region.

Taking all of the above into account, our team’s main focus for today, and possibly into the week, will be looking for shorting opportunities. With that, we see two possible entry points:

1. Wait to see if price retests the 1.0499 daily swap level as resistance. For us to consider entering short here, we’d need lower timeframe confirming action to be seen, since there is nothing to say that price will not ignore this level and continue on north, which brings us on to the second option…

2. A break above 1.0499 would likely force the market northbound towards a 4hr decision-point supply area seen at 1.0633-1.0582. This area looks in a good position to repel the market further south and offers fantastic reward to your risk. That being the case, we have set a pending short order just below at 1.0577 with a stop just above at 1.0641.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: 1.0499 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 1.0577 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0641).

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