EURUSD - At Least A Relief Rally Could Be In Store

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
In my last EURUSD             chart I outlined reasons for possible bullish move (please refer to that chart, link below). The weakness since then has not completely removed a possibility of strong rally no matter how remote that might sound right now.

There are many fundamental and political cross current at play and could complicate any attempt to analyse this pair along with most USD Pairs. However, From Elliott Wave perspective we appear to have completed or are close to completing the 5 wave move from last high in May 2014.

If this is correct then we could expect a reversal or at least the retracement of the decline by 38.2% (a common fib ratio) could be the minimum expectation.

Technicals to note are:

1. Overwhelming bearish sentiments for EURUSD             and COT report suggesting an increasing short interest.

2. At a Nov 2005 low that could act as potential support.

3. At a potential support line of MACD which also coincide with Stretched ADX as it did with Nov 2008 low, June 2010 low, Aug 2012 low.

4. Seasonal trend suggest potential low in Late Jan - Feb time frame. Potential time symmetry (See chart below) suggesting mid to late Jan for potential low to form.

Therefore a retracement is what could be expected and bearish move to the downside now would be limited and get very risky trade.

Future longer term prospect for EURUSD             and other USD Pairs depends on if the 5 wave decline since May 2014 high become a larger wave 1 of a much longer bearish cycle or completes the bearish cycle. There are no way of knowing that right now.

Therefore once the low is formed the nature of bounce would give further clues for longer term prospects. Will be observing that with keen interest.

As always, please do you own analysis for your requirement, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates and indicate with Thumb-Up, if you like the analysis. Leave constructive comments so we can all learn from it.

Thank you for your taking the time to check my analysis.

It seems EUR is appearing to be the showing relative strenght. Could at least last till Thursday or beyond. Will monitor how it develops.
+1 Reply
Updated Weekly & Daily DXY chart suggesting possible significant top or intermediate top being formed and is either complete or very close to completion. Either way this suggest at least some drop in DXY which would allow EUEURD either to make a retracement or a reversal. Weeky chart And Daily
+1 Reply
my analysis 3months back didnt take into acc a rocket move vertically, hence it still pretty well stuck under the multi-year downtrend red line which is now around 94

DanV jangseohee
Agreed. Thanks for sharing.
+1 Reply
just my humble opinion, no mention
DanV jangseohee
Heheheh, Understood. :)

I am Long on 1,1790!

DanV nappenbir
Yep. Could be good move if we have follow through. Thanks
DanV Cityfox
Hi. I am not sure what you mean. I we have 1-5 waves move then at least abc move up for retracement is normal. Unless where 1-5 completed the cycle and we have new cycle in which case we would have 1-5 wave move in the opposite direction as reversal. Hope this helps.
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