simonsays452
Short

EURO set for 50% retrace @ 1.1087 due to "risk-on" USD strength

FX_IDC:EURUSD   EURO / US DOLLAR
150 0 1
In short:
  • US macro data just too damn strong to support ~10 years at zero
  • Fed will hike in September or the market will move the yield curve on its own
  • Euro is a funding currency and as a risk barometer will depreciate on broader "risk-on" sentiment
  • ECB uncomfortable with recent Euro             appreciation to near 2015 highs at 1.17ish - trotting out Peter Praet to talk Euro             down on deflationary risk concerns
  • Rejection of the over-extended move to the up-side will lead to an over-extended move to the down-side
  • Initially targeting 50% retracement @ 1.1087
  • Likely to see a breakdown through the lower support line of 2015's symmetrical triangle to the 76.4% fib retracement @ 1.0750ish
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