We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 1.48%, DOWN from 1.53% from last week according to EVZ data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1ST percentile, while according to EVZ, we are on 1th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.121% movement Bearish: 0.966% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 30% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 1.069 BOT: 1.037
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 71% probability we are going to touch previous high 1.059 30% probability we are going to touch previous low 1.044
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 26% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 93% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Great explanation of the analysis! Interesting what timeframes do you use most often in your analysis?
exlux99
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@TradingStat, thank you for your kind words. In my honest opinion weekly and daily timeframe are the best in order to get the big idea and also these timeframes are highly correlated to the global events overall. Once you get the big idea, you can go into 1h and input the trades trade. However this type of trading is designed more around the concept of having patience, and follow the big trends. If you want to be more pro active, you can go into lower timeframes like 15min or below, but be very careful since there is a lot of noise around
@TheFxAce, i believe the current resistence is around 1.07 - 1.075 so until there, there is some nice long opportunity, however gotta keep in consideration the news coming this week from the feds, which can turn the tides massively, but until there should be ok