EURUSD has completed a large Gartley pattern on the weekly TF at a very important area of support. The support comes from a trendline dating back to the year 2000 which has been tested three times and has yet to be broken in the past 15 years. This is the second time price has tested the Gartley PRZ, proving it to be a key area of support as well. To add to the bullish bias, two confluent harmonic patterns have emerged on shorter time frames. These 4H harmonic patterns provide an excellent opportunity to enter the larger TF Gartley more precisely.
Possible Stop Loss and Targets: T1: Unhit pivot for November, 2015 | .618CD (Bat & Butterfly) | R:R=3 T2: Missed pivot for January, 2015 | .382CD (Gartley) | R:R=9 T2: Missed pivot for September, 2014 | .618CD (Gartley) | R:R=15 SL: Below bat point X
nice long term setup... but i have a question... ECB fundamentals are against Euro and we have US rate hike.. which i think is after 10 or 15 years.. so combining both these elements... do you think long term trendline will remain intact..??
glennmercer
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Anything is possible of course. My very technical outlook is that if a long-term trendline has provided effective S/R in the past, then it's likely to have some significance in the future regardless of fundamentals. SL is placed tightly below the trendline if it is in fact broken. I also like to close my positions before any major news events, like rate announcement in December for instance.
glennmercer
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Great comment by the way
CajunXChange
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different pattern but we are on the same page:)
glennmercer
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Yes sir and good luck to you
ccake28
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Hi. for the stop loss, how many pips do you usually put below bat point X? in this case, is the stop loss 1.0425?
glennmercer
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SL placement is left completely to the trader's discretion and their style of trading. If there is a significant amount of S/R around X, I will use a tighter stop like in this case. Personally, I place my SL about 5-10% of the distance of the CD leg below point X when trading a bat pattern. So for this case, the distance of the CD leg is about 900 pips. 5% of 900 is 45. So my SL is about 45 pips below point X. Hope that helps.