On the right we can see that eurusd made a clear break of that support line today, but bounced back up even more. Suggesting a bear trap move. Usually when we see a trap move, the market continues in the opposite direction (in this case up). It could still just be a wick that went back above support, so it could be a simple retest of former support. But doesn't look like it so far.
If the trap is real, it should not drop below the 1.1200/1.1205.
Bigger picture, it has been zigzagging a lot past half year, slowly dropping but not dumping. To me this says there are still intentions to move up on the long term.
If we move up and break the red zone and being able to touch the high of the triangle, than the triangle might be real. If we than see it stay close to the high, we could maybe make a real breakout of that big channel on the right and go towards the 1.135/1.14, target of the triangle.
I don't like how that retracement on the bear trap move is already starting, before the 4H even closed. If it closes like this it will have a huge upper wick on that 4H candle.
botje11
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@Dojari, Yes, good judgement call. I did not watch it closely but i can see it now as well
Dojari
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Nice. I had been looking at this pair all week (closed my long early on Friday due to the weekend close, didn't want to take the risk). I was thinking it would go and touch the upper boundary of that huge weekly falling wedge. Trying to get a 4H break-out now but the trendline I had there didn't show rejection of lower prices yet until now. Nice to see your view on this one :)