If this count is correct and this is an ending diagonal, we should see a clear 5-wave up, which if it doesn't break back below the 1.2750 low upon correction would mark the start of a new push to the upside... Key levels are 1.2837 and 1.29
An ending diagonal would also coincide with current events surrounding Cyprus.. as many have anticipated a bank run and for a spillover of that into other peripheral countries, and consequently a much lower Euro.. As this has proven not to be the case and as we fail to make significantly lower lows in the Euro, this would add furter weight to the view of this last price action to be an ending diagonal.. the psychology of which indicates "exessive" market pessimisme and exhaustion as price fails to break below the lower diagonal trendline... this is then followed by a swift reversal or knee-jerk type reaction and may be triggered by the slightest hint of positive or consructive data related to this pair. We're calling for a reversal because this last leg down since the February high has been very much overlapping and thus corrective in nature. Notice also how price has slowly been moving out of the downward sloping channel and into the diagonal form.. which then also happens to side with MACD and CCI convergences.
Comments
JayJay
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Not quite the impulsive wave we are looking for yet.. but as long as the second low of 1.27697 holds this could be a third wave within a third wave as shown in this chart.. or as a final option, a leading diagonal.. shown in the next chart..
JayJay
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For the leading diagonal idea to hold, price may not move below the low of 1.27489 upon correction...
JayJay
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We can look for a breakout of the 4x1 line coming from the top after we have price testing the bottom-end of the pitchfork channel and closing with some nice pinbars at these lower levels..
JayJay
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Draghi says "there's no plan B" ... =)
JayJay
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lol... the "good" news we were awaiting at the end of the beforementioned diagonal seems to be the fact that the euro didn't crash when Draghi said... "there's no plan B..."