EURUSD: Upper Target 1.16086

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
66 22 1
Latest developments suggest that wave C of 4 (up) is still in progress and is now nearing the end of a component triangle fourth wave which seems intent on propelling price toward 1.16086. That level represents a .91257 retracement of the preceeding wave B (down) of 4. The percentage .91257 seems to be a recurring theme, at least within EURUSD             , for which we might call "close but no cigar" nearly total retracements. This is especially the case with retracements of the legs of a triangle to their preceding legs, which are often between 78.6% and 100% in general.

This leads me to suspect that the greater 4th wave in EURUSD             will still develop as a contracting triangle. The hypothesis right now is that wave C of it will end near the 1.16086 level, then be retraced three quarters or more by a wave D down (a three-wave zigzag , most likely), then a wave E up (three waves or a triangle in itself) followed by a resumption to the downward trend in wave 5 toward parity. Once we have waves C and D in place, the post-triangle thrust for wave 5 can be estimated.
Price has chosen the downward move and has met the thrust measurement from what I perceive as the fourth wave of wave C down. That and divergence in the RSI reading suggest it will soon turn upward again. This move has completed a .382 retracement of the greater wave 3 by wave 4. Whether this is the end of wave 4 remains to be seen, as there is still the chance that this ABC down from wave 3 only comprises a larger wave 'A' of 4. The only way to know is to monitor the structure of the next upward wave of the same degree to see if a distinction can be made as to whether it is an impulsive wave or a 'B' type wave structure.
Ambiguity as to whether the present small abc structure is the middle section of wave D up or is still a fourth wave of wave C down: If price moves into the red shaded area, I think it will complete wave D toward the top of the area. if it moves into the orange area, it is more likely that wave C will bottom toward the bottom of that area (yielding a solid .382 or more retracement for wave 3), which may actually negate the heretofore labeled paramters of the triangle for the 4th wave.
New developments require a new wave count. Now it's looking like wave 'C' has just found a bottom and wave 'D' has nearly completed its first leg up (it should be a 3 up-3 down-5 up ABC type wave). I would expect it to retrace about 78.6% of wave 'B', if it is typical. Once wave 'D' has completed, an upward thrust measurement for wave 5 can be estimated.
Showing possible alternate labeling for wave 'E' which may be triangulating itself
If wave 'D' ended at the level shown, this is the only labeling I can conceive of to resolve its wave count. Furthermore, the angle it makes at this level from the peak of wave 'B' implies an upward thrust which is more aligned with my original upper target of near 1.16. It is also possible that wave 'E' has also finished now and the wave 5 thrust may have begun.
Ah, so now this peak must be labeled as 'b', since it exceeded what I previously labeled 'b'
Now rising in wave 'd' of the triangular 4th wave of wave 'c' of wave 'D' of the larger triangular wave 4. Assuming that wave 'C' of the larger triangle peaked at 1.4538, then we know that this wave 'D' must end below there before falling in wave 'E'. Assuming the labeling for this smaller triangular 4th wave shown here, we may expect this 'd' to end around 1.4255 in order to allow for this smaller triangle to generate a thrust that does not exceed 1.4538 in its 5th wave.

After that, I suspect that the final 5th wave thrust from the larger triangle is going to end up not rallying much above the green horizontal.
Wave D is nearing completion and its peak is estimated to be at 1.4452 and should of course be lower than 1.4538, which was the top of wave B.
ac7777 ac7777
Lower than 1.14538
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