finitemonk

NFP, Technicals & Rumour

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
141 0 1
12.30 UTC the delayed US market unemployment figures are released. (see here http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/) Rumour has it it will be better than expected.
Technically it's an odd one, hard to read. Because of the 'dollar dump' post debt ceiling many relevant charts show a flag/pennant, one would expect it to weaken the dollar.
All considered I'm gonna take a pot shot guess it will be marginally better than expected, give the dollar a very short boost, and the markets respond by taking as an opportunity to re-short the dollar, (although I'm thinking the dollar may show at least consolidation if not a bit of re-strengthening, even assisted, over the next month or two.)
I've marked in what I think might be the correct drop. I'm also interested to see if it knocks down XAUUSD             to the 1291/ 1284 area to give the second inverse shoulder.
Here this is a bullish pennant v. channel / ML
If it does drop, it could give an inverse H&S pattern along the upper edge of the channel.

A couple of notes: the new Mod Schiff pitchfork perfectly parallels the old one.
Secondly it will be interesting to see market reaction either way. A more long term question: will the relevance of the NFP be fading?

Personally I'm going to stand and wait and trade the outcome.
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