This pair has been my main focus now for the past 3 weeks. Monday created the High Of The Week which saw the day shifting aggressively towards the bottom meaning SELLS/SHORTS were triggered. Caught the strong SELLS/SHORTS right from the top where they were hunting for stops and pending orders before the strong move down. Knowing that the market has to have a structure where there are breaks and retests, Monday didn't respect that structure meaning one way or the other price has to respect the structure based on the price action prior to Monday. Since Monday was just a straight drop with no pull backs, it was bound to hit the last level of structure prior to the drop which was the high of Thursday 24th Nov. The retest of that previous structure and failure to break it towards the top, was the reason why I decided to take my new set of SELLS/SHORTS right there. My SL goes above the high of the week because once liquidity has been grabbed and the market shifts that aggressively, they won't be going there again to retest because it will release the liquidity already grabbed.
NB: the NFP might spike price up a little bit above my entry to 1.04740, but once that happens ... the melt will begin!!!
Comment
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Unfortunately the Stop Loss was hit on this setup due to an aggressive stop hunt. But my belief is that EUR/USD is still going to melt drastically after the stop hunt is done. I'm holding a painful draw down on the pair, because I still believe it's going to fall hard, but will close myself out if it goes up another 25 - 50 pips.
The issue is that even though we believe that EUR is going to go downwards but the market doesn't seem to respect that belief
TheReal_Market_Maker
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@kavish123610, EUR/USD is going to fall mate. The stop hunt messed up the speculation, but not the events as they're going to take place. By EOD price would have tumbled BIG on the pair.
UnknownUnicorn15614419
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The asset should test the levels more for the scenario to be confirmed. Thanks for sharing the vision!
AkachiRa
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Good Chart, but damn those Stop Hunts. They make me sad the Market works like that.
TheReal_Market_Maker
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@AkachiRa, The unfortunate part is that when a lot of breakout retail traders see those levels as good areas of opportunity for strong buys, the market makers see those levels as areas of making easy money, because they just trigger Longs into trades and drag them the opposite direction just like they did in this case.
casparitina
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I appreciate your analysis. I feel the same. Market Makers have been very aggressive in their volatile moves. Tomorrow should be interesting, and I've seen too many reversals on Friday. The DXY could also be key, and will be retesting the 200 Day Moving Average on a daily candle.
CrypTik00
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We still have no idea what winter is coming in Europe, no one knows, but that's why I keep my savings in dollars.
JoeChampion
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I agree on EUR weakness, thanks!
TheReal_Market_Maker
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@JoeChampion, Let's trade safe with the realization that anything is possible with these markets. Good luck mate!