EURUSD: Big picture view

Euro Fx/U.S. DollarFXCM

Description

⋅ May 24, 2015 7:05 PM

I'm short until we reach my target, but the bigger picture is confusing for the dollar, crude oil and the euro.
Crude oil is currently moving sideways, with a slight bearish bias, but not as radical as eurusd or inverse dxy.

I drew the daily and weekly time at mode signals on chart, with the MTPC indicator showing weekly candles, while the line chart makes it easier to compare the different instruments.
It would seem as if crude oil is actually leading the currencies, and I expect the move down to be short lived, based on that premise, and the fact that my current target, which is a 4 bar daily downtrend, aims for a retest of the previous uptrend mode in the weekly, roughly.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a large consolidation or a reversal from this level, so I'll look into managing my eurusd short from the 4h chart, to scale in and trail stops accordingly. This isn't a set and forget short like many expect, nor a safe bet long/longer term trend reversal, there is no way to know for now, so better react, than forecast.

I'll keep a close watch and will focus on capturing potential opportunities linked to fundamental event volatility and update this chart as we go forward.

Have a nice week,
Ivan.

Comments

timwest

⋅ Jun 2, 2015 7:53 PM

Great use of MTPC and line charts! Really nice job on this analysis.

IvanLabrie

⋅ Jun 2, 2015 8:32 PM

Thanks, Felt like a clearer way of presenting the chart.

LipengWang

⋅ May 29, 2015 5:17 AM

Thanks for sharing

IvanLabrie

⋅ May 26, 2015 2:22 PM

I covered my short, 1.0929 (opened at 1.11663).
4.32:1 reward/risk overall. Not bad!

timwest

⋅ May 26, 2015 9:06 PM

Good idea to report REALIZED REWARD/ REALIZED RISK. Excellent going. Great trade.

IvanLabrie

⋅ May 26, 2015 9:36 PM

Thanks a lot Tim!
Yes, I'll do that from now on.

IvanLabrie

⋅ Jun 24, 2015 12:18 AM

IvanLabrie

⋅ Jun 5, 2015 1:01 AM

4h map, might rebound from here and form a new leg up.
There's time left in the daily uptrend signal, although the target has been reached.
I'll watch for a short term entry before NFP tomorrow.

IvanLabrie

⋅ Jun 1, 2015 12:00 PM

Update, looks like the correction is complete and we're starting a new bullish run.

IvanLabrie

⋅ May 29, 2015 1:58 PM

Interesting:

Potentially either a corrective structure, or a leading diagonal wave 1 impulse.
All I know is my uptrend forecast is working to the pip. There's 1 more 4h bar left, let's see how it reacts, if this is indeed a leading diagonal, we should see a steep retracement, but no new low.