4xForecaster

Tech-Note: Explaining Aspect Of The Predictive/Forecating Model

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2037 57 28
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:


Friends,

A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:



WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?

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TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.

Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.

Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.

Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.

All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.

Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
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... cont'd in thread ...

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David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
21 APR 2015 - Update:

Hello TV'ers,

At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.

If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by  within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.

One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.

My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.

I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - New Lessons:


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"Advanced Financial Market Geometries
- Educational Ideas & Discussions"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Link:
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions




Friends,

Please, feel free to share among other peers. The lessons, tips, targets and pearls will occur over time. I have taken the time to post several charts involving major Forex pairs, as well as some other charts. This is an on-going effort to introduce you to market geometries used in forecasting targets, as well as determining a point of reversal.

The lessons are free, remain on TradingView.com and will not ask you to leave the site or link up to some other silly commercial venture.

Feels free to give it a thum-up if this is pertinent to your interest in technical analysis, and to forward to peers. But by all means, I would like that proper credit and linking be maintained in any subsequent sharing. It's free, but represents tremendous work for your viewing pleasure.

Thank you.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


Link:
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions


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+2 Reply
Hi David! What is your view on EUR/USD. After FED games price correct to 61.8 fib on last impuls. Is this pair ready to continue its downtrend.
snapshot
Reply
10 MAR 2015 - PREDICTIVE & FORECASTING MODEL - EXPLAINED:



NOMINAL vs. NUMERICAL TARGET:

The nominal target and numerical target are different by their relative probabilities of price ever reaching them, and by whether price might either retrace or reverse. This means that:

1 - Numerical Targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... etc.) offer a HIGH probability of being hit, but a LOW probability of causing a reversal
2 - Nominal Targets (i.e.: TG-Hi/Low and their extremes, TG-Hix/TG-Lox) offer a LOW probability of being hit, but a HIGH probability of causing a reversal.

The most important aspect of this is difference:
1 - Numerical targets help define hidden geometries, such as nodes and nodules (i.e.: discreet, temporary RETRACEMENTS whose geometric center will cast a WEAK R/S level in the future, and often line up with significant structures or R/S levels from the past.
2 - Nominal targets will define tip-top and bottom-tip REVERSALS - Very often, you will see that price will bounce off of these levels, then go beyond them in a way that creates a symmetry right around the Nominal Target, and then reverse.

Note that in these numerical vs. nominal rules remain unrelated but useful as supportive events in the overall predictive/forecasting model.


RETRACEMENT vs. REVERSAL:

The NUMERICAL targets are associated with RETRACEMENTS, in contrast to NOMINAL targets, which are associated with REVERSALS.

The difference between a reversal and a retracement in the context of these targets is that:

1 - Retracement refer to price turn-around in the Fibonacci order that will NOT exceed 0.618.

So, a typical price reaction reaching a numerical target would be to temporarily retrace in the Fibonacci order of 0.382, 0.500 or 0.618 in most cases.

In the most aggressive markets, 0.214 or even 0.114 would occur, which are nothing other than complements of 0.786 and 0.886 (1.000 - 0.786 = 0.214 and 1.000 - 0.816 - 0.114), respectively.

2 - Reversals refer to price turn-around in the Fibonacci order that WILL exceed 0.618, and might reach 0.786, 0.886 as far as contraction reversals, or event reach out to 1.272, 1.414, or 1.618 expansion reversals, in the most counter-aggressive markets.

These levels are determined by the very geometric nature of the targets. In contrast, the targets are defined by non-price events.

Combined together, the model benefits from both a directional bias signal (predictive of direction and strength) as well as from a deterministic signal (forecasting a retracement vs. reversal), all of which constituting the Predictive/Forecasting "Model".


RULE OF SCALE - WHEN THE PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL FAILS:

Failure of a NOMINAL at a given timeframe means that a higher timeframe is interfering by gaining control of price - The rule defines that the higher timeframe rests at 4 times above the current level.

For instance, a failure at M15 means that a controlling actor exists at M15 x 4 = H1. Similarly, a failure at H1 would mean H4, and H4 demands attention to be brought up to 16-hour frame, although at that point, I simply move on up to the daily level.

The rule of scale simply implies that heavier hands or larger funded forces will flood in orders that will distort the lesser-frame analyses, interfering with the normal model.

In a way, the model uses its failures as a signal to look at the next level up.

The rule also implies that that higher the source of the interference (say it comes from a DAILY level), the less frequent it will occur, but the longer lasting its directional effect on price.

This is simply verifiable by, say a major banque liquidating a position in a way that is controlled over several days or weeks at Fib-paced moves.

Best is to look at the hierarchy of fundamental forces apt to impact price, such that Central bank having a greater lasting effect on price relative to major banks, institutional Traders and retail traders, in this diminishing order of relevance.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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+4 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
David, what are you doing here, for me called "soul deposit". Sharing knowledge and experience without some return to a world of highly competitive and greedy for profit. Thank you very much.....
+2 Reply
Thank you @takefal for saying this. It is much appreciated.

David
+1 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
Dear David
I am not only learning from you but I am seeing the movement of markets in a whole different way. You have helped to open my technical third eye which enables me to see the market for its true self. Thank you for your wisdom and know that there are forces out there that are thanking you!

Rodrigo
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
Thank you so much for this very kind and encouraging worded support - I am preparing a new thread on WW. So, stay tuned.

David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
snapshot
+1 Reply
Hi David. Not the most geometrically balanced WW, some tunnelling is present.....what are your thoughts on the probability of this possible price movement. Thank you. Iefan
+1 Reply
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