4xForecaster

Tech-Note: Explaining Aspect Of The Predictive/Forecating Model

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2016 57 28
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:


Friends,

A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:



WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?

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TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.

Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.

Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.

Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum , the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.

All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.

Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor
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... cont'd in thread ...

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David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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HOW DO NOMINAL TARGETS RELATE TO PULL-BACKS; WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RETRACEMENTS AND REVERSALS; HOW TO THEY RELATE TO TARGETS:

I will add that TG-Hi/Hix/Lo/Lox, the impact on price is typically a reversal - not just retracement - in price. NOTE that that the higher the timeframe, the higher the probability of these levels to impose their reversible impact on price. In contrast, the numerical targets, (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... etc.) are levels at which price is expected to retrace, not reverse.

The difference between a reversal event and a retracement relates to the depth of price turning around relative to the impulse that created its initial elan or swing. Hence, in a retracement, expect to see pull-backs in the Fibonacci orders or 0.382, 0.500, down to 0.618, although in the most aggressive cases, pull backs can be as minor as 0.214 or even 0.114, indicative of a more aggressive underlying strength, eager to resume the initial swing.

In contrast, a reversal will see price pulling back in deeper contraction, in the Fibonacci orders in excess of 0.618. Here, look for 0.786, 0.886 or double-top/bot events as far as contractions go, or in the most aggressive counter-directional events, look for negative extensions, in the Fibonacci orders of 1.131, 1.272, 1.414. or 1.618.


OVERALL:

Each timeframe represents a microcosm of players, seeking a technical advantage over one another. What the erudite trader should be able to do is remain in his/her own familiar environment, in which she has developed the best responses, not based on external information such as technicals, quantitative data or fundamental feeds, but simply by accepting that the lower the timeframe, the more abundant, stronger and better funded breed of players inhabiting the upper temporal canopy in the wilderness of layered traders.

However, one cannot have the right emotional apparatus if she is constantly tempted to rethink oneself. Hence, the adversarial ground lies not at that timeframe, nor at the above above or below your won, but that non-temporal milieu within herself. You are your own true arbiter, subject to emotional slippage and enormous cultural capital influences that will impose innate values, and thus taint the way you develop your directional biases.

Falling for the tricks of another adversary is something you cannot avoid, but falling to one's own emotional tricks is up to the maturing trader to improve on this personal basis. Me recommendation? Get yourself a coach, a third-eye, a person who can see you the way you wished you could see how other traders look at you, the real adversarial hurdle.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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+6 Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:

For example, in this $AUDNZD-H4 chart, I am looking at the interplay of known geometries, expectations in RSI behavior, and how these interplay with the predefined targets that have been generated by the predictive/forecasting model:

$AUDNZD-H4 Chart:

snapshot



The targets are non variables in the price field, and they were generated after the model looks at non-price elements of the pair.

At this point, I can only keep the entire speculative picture in mind with the upper border of the geometry open to the possibility of more upside, as indicated by the orange dashed arrow.

A quick word on these arrows:


THE ARROWS: SOLID OR DASHED ... BRIGHT OR FAINT:

You will see in the charts that arrows typically in orange will appear either as solid or dashed elements, in bright or faint tone. In the simplest way, this is the visual clue I leave for myself. I am a desperate, unconditional visual person. I cannot understand complicated charts with too many colors, and I cannot follow price by mere verbal explanation (Hint: If you have a question, keep this in mind, as I would be more apt to leave the question unanswered not having to look at your chart - As Einstein once said:

"If you cannot explain it simply, you don't understand it well"

So, this goes to the most junior in our midst: For the sake of intellectual engagement, which is the real nature and purpose of TradingView.com, bring in your chart in any of the discussion thread of any chartist, but please, simplify your chart without having to include too many interfering blocks, lines and what note. Sure, I do not explain a lot of the proprietary concepts, but what I post is a bare skeletal of the research that leads my to puck on the "Publish" button, and every time I do this, I ask whether it would make sense to YOU, the very one and indivisible person reading thus far.

Okay, so enough digression and back to the arrows.

Basically, the clearest the arrow, the most probable immediate price action. Between two arrows pointing in different directions, it is the brightest of the two that favors the direction, and between a solid and a dashed arrow, it is the solid that carries the highest probability of departure in that direction. Hence, a solid bright arrow gets the highest probability of price action, whereas the dimmest dashed arrow has the least.

You will see that in some of the charts, a direction is given up to a level, then a pullback appears in a dimmer arrow, and then off to another level followed by a much dimmer dash arrow, and so on. This is simply because the model is defining these levels in its output, but either it or other proprietary elements of the analysis and forecast have judged one level having a greater probability of attainment over another. There used to be different colors applied to arrows (red for least probable and green for most), but I have since replaces these with the gradual fainting of these arrows.


OVERALL:

While I might never divulge the specific content of the predictive/forecasting model methodology, it remains the trader's proper responsibility to define his own trading process. What I always recommend is that the trader focuses not upon what she wants in profits, but needs in loss. Your pre-defined needs in loss (here, need implies what you need to remain in the trading activity), can only be based on what you have in your account, your leverage, your defined percentage of risk, as well as risk tolerance. Whereas all these are outer parameters that you have defined and perhaps used programs to compute the optimal position sizes, it still remains whether your emotional constitution will remain put and still when it comes to respect your rules. Here and only here is what starts to separate the trader you need to resist from the person you want to be - not that being a trader should only be a stage in this personal evolution, and that at the end, there is not a trader on one side of the existential bridge and your wishful self on the other, but no chiasm at all to cross, arriving at one and the same indivisible individual.

As Pitka once said:

"G.U.R.U"

Do not feel that the stage of evolution from here to there (which is in here) is a rudimentary venture, or a freshman level engagement. I am currently consulting with a psychologist who will help me guide in my own discoveries. I have been quite successful in my own trading, but at this level of Maslow's pyramid of needs, I do seek a level of self-actualization which I cannot attain without the help of a "third-eye", a person who sits outside of my beliefs, values and emotions, and able to stir me around columns of memories, secret pathways I may have plastered out of my own fear. The goal of all this is to become an integral trading person. Not a trader.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor

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+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is another chart illustrating the reversibility potentials of the Nominal Targets:


Wedge & Predictive/Forecast Model Interplay | $EUR $AUD #Forex


(Source:
Wedge & Predictive/Forecast Model Interplay | $EUR $AUD #Forex
)
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
There was no TG-Lox defined at the time, si=o I cannot honestly say that it would have been at 1.3800. Still, you get the idea - David
+4 Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:


More on arrows ... The Geo-Arrows:



As discussed earlier this morning, the dashed solid vs. dashed, bright vs. faint arrows relate to the probability of a next move. Here, in the case of the GBPAUD, you will see that price did follow the brightest of the dashed arrows quite tightly, starting with a solid arrow for a rallying into the vicinity of a bearish entrenchment, and then a significant pullback. A sweep was done taking price back exactly at the 1.99440 as forecast, and then ceding to bears.

snapshot



So, what other arrows are in the chart? The long skinny solid one?

These arrows are there simply to remind me visually (remember what I said about being a sad, unconditional visual trader), of the probable move within the pattern. These arrows are more about defining an evolving geometry, rather than pointing to the Predictive/Forecasting Model or proprietary pattern development in price action. Sometime, they will course along with the dash solid/dashed YELLOW arrows, but they remain more for geometric interest

In the case of the GBPAUD, these arrows (typically faint blue or purple, kept as background to price so as not to interfere too much) did exactly that: The called the pattern, and the pattern delivered, as follows:


24 FEB 2015: Price hits forecast TG-Hi (RED); Expecting a reversal, not just retracement (remember?)
snapshot



26 FEB 2015: Here, these large geometry-related arrows are pre-drawn. Yes, the model can offer some generalized, albeit highly speculative price pathway, about the potential ensuing geometry:
snapshot



26 FEB 2015: Here, a bottom had already been defined, and a top is forecast by the blue geo-arrows:
snapshot



27 FEB 2015: As you may have seen before, I rationalize the predictive/forecasting model with the Geo-Arrows, but I want to make sure that visually (again), there are clear and objective parameters that make sense. This is when I either call on and post know geometries (here, the Wolfe Waves):
snapshot



03 MAR 2015: Here, upon completion of the WW's tenets, I pointed to an important technical event, in which a support converts to a reversal around STATIC price levels. In the case of lines pertaining to slanted geometries, I would refer to these as DYNAMIC lines, where a similar R/S conversion event is occurring:
snapshot



04 MAR 2015: Here, price materializes what it had indicated it would do not only in the WW (that is the objective, deomstrable part of my presentations), but most importantly, according to what the Predictive/Forecasting Model had already suggested way before any WW had been drawn:
snapshot



05 MAR 2015: Now, here is the chart at this very moment of writing this Tech-Note ... moving along the Geo-Arrows, and getting all the while ever closer to the first numerical target, TG-1:
snapshot



OVERALL:

The engine behind the analysis is something that best fits me as a person trading. The task of my becoming a trader was not to acquire what other trader could do. If you have traded long enough, there is NOT one and any way you can trade in the way any other trader can trade with his own system, strat or methodology, simply because the implementation of the vehicle (the so called "system" developed by the trader) contains one variable that is infinite and not at all in the grasp of anyone: The very fact that that trader is different from you.

If you have a hard time with this concept, the time it will take to come to grasp with this is the time you will take to learn more about the driver behind your own car when your own hands are at the wheels, rather than someone else. The method has bits and parts, but the driver has wits and heart, and these will vary across all traders on their way to become their own indivisible individual person.

Stay tuned for more Tech-Notes, and thank you for reading thus far.


David Alcindor
alias: 4xForecaster

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+5 Reply
06 MAR 2015 - Quote:

“Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.”
― Oscar Wilde


Congrats, you made it!

Happy Friday!


David Alcindor
+7 Reply
07 MAR 2015 - Let's Talk About The Wolfe Wave Patter ... The Way I See It:


Friends, traders:

The Wolfe Wave pattern is a discovery that was made by Bill Wolfe - I never received any lesson from the author, and I was never able to find his site, simply because I queries the wrong places. His site can be found at http://www.wolfewave.com/ - I have no personal interest, and to be sure, I have never received any lesson from anyone about this pattern, except the few images of patterns I had come across, which I used as a springboard to derive my own rules thereafter.


INTRO - The Wolfe and Me:

Before I get into the details of how I look for this pattern, I would like to say that I will continue to call this the Wolfe Wave pattern, and allude to it as "WW". Now that I looked at the introductory page (http://wolfewave.com/), I read over and over again that no one other than the author can properly teach this pattern, and I truly believe that this author speaks his own truth, but not all of the truth. I say this at the risk of appearing as if I wanted to coopt something of value here, but truly my intention remains purely educational, as I work on a daily basis to push the interest and discovery of technical analysis. I am not a member of MTA, nor a certified or licensed professional in technical analysis. What I have are years of face time with the market (since 1997), putting in approximately 12-16 - and sometimes more) hours a day, any day (just ask my poor wife) looking at patterns, price action, lines, geometries and breaking it all down and filtering it through a cognitive habit I have developed as a purely visual person.

Although I am currently an emergency physician, my undergraduate studies were in architectural studies, having focused on sacred numbers, numerology and the application of numbers into building systems. After graduation, I moved on to medicine, simply because I was interested in architecture for the poor, and discovered during a research trip in Haiti (1993) that third-world countries do not need architects (there are culturally exceedingly rich in this regard and could teach the developed world a lot), but they do need engineers and doctors - So, I became one. Technical analysis was simply something I came across as a way to blow off some steam in my pre-medical years, and trading was the application of a few conceptual ideas I started to develop upon my entry at the University of Kansas School of Medicine (1997) - I hope that this short curriculum helps you develop an image of the few things that have shaped my view and conditioned my interest in market geometries - Other things I have done or continue to do are photography, reading books on topics that may have an impact on trading, such as the plasticity of the brain, behavioral neuro-anatomy, and understanding why we do the things we do in trading.


STEERING ACROSS THE MARKET ON YOUR OWN - TRADING WITHOUT PRICE:

I am the author and owner of several proprietary patterns (Great White, Euclid, Janus). I also had the honor to be part of an international group of traders in which Darren Oglesby belonged at the time when the Cypher was released to us before it was released to the public at large a few years back. I am also the author of other concepts in occult geometries (Euclidean Module, nodal and nodular geometries) which I have shared sparingly here and there, although a book remains to be written on this and so many other things I have come across, most of which have a relative relevance to trading - Question always is: Can it make me money? This is hardly the right question to ask, as this depends on the type of trader you are. I have taught lessons on solid and stable strategies, which traders have somehow been able to ignore at the time of action. The real 2 questions in trading is whether the tools you use can help you save what you have gained, and whether you are familiar with the very the trader that that comes into play and takes your cognitive place at the time of action. Many do not, and herein lies the cause of death of many traders that have fallen on the field around us.

As I mentioned above, I am not an expert in the Wolfe Wave pattern per se - But I can say that I am an expert in occult geometries and in the manner in which I approach trading. I simply do not use the price field when I look for a trading opportunity. Sure, what you read of my analysis ends up on the chart, but the chart is only a canvas onto which the geometric concepts are projected the way a camera projects the world of light abstractions onto the developing film. If this is too esoteric for you, then consider Welles Wilder, author of the RSI (1978) who left technical analysis to found his own organization (www.DeltaSociety.com), basing his successful trading career on inter-stellar motion. Go figure. But again, people like that will take it to levels that will ruffle feathers, roll eyes and perhaps attract derisory comments. Still, this is a field that is quite amazing to delve into. If it will turn some off, then consider Apple, Inc following quote on this matter:



“Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They're not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can't do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.”
― Apple Inc.


The following 2 quotes about blazing your own trail is also just as pertinent:

“To be yourself in a world that is constantly trying to make you something else is the greatest accomplishment.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.”
― H. Jackson Brown Jr., P.S. I Love You


So, trading without price is not a rudderless endeavor. It simply is a way to look at things differently. As many of my students and prior readers have heard me say ad nauseum:

"Price is the carrot that dangles at the end of a stick, which is held by instituional hands"


By this, I mean that there is an inherent imbalance, wherein trading can be compared to asymmetrical warfare, in which the smart, nimble commando retail trader has to depends on unusual methods to sneak up to, grab and safely return with gains, all the while knowing that his position in terms of stop-loss, targets, account are all-known elements available as a whole to the institutional trader. I many not appear as an individual retail trader to another institutional trader, but all my positions are known. And this is enough to inspire me to seek the most abstract and most unusual ways to enter the blazing field of trading, in which orders crackle, stop-loss explode and ripping sounds of take-profit alarm are but a few of the cognitive distractions while the brain only works on its survival reflexes.

Yet, sometimes, there are simple patterns I turn to, not because they are simpler, which the WW is not, but because they tend to offer the sweet gratitude that is often sought once in a while, when you take a break from the field of bloody muck, and you are looking for a little ray of sunshine.

That happens to me through my own proprietary patterns, but also through my experience with the WW, which I have pushed to elaborate levels that may or may not reflect what the author had in mind - For instance, I recently wrote a few rules on the Alternate Wolfe Wave ("AWW"), and perhaps, all this time, I should simply call it another name (considering the disdain the author expresses on his page - www.wolfewave.com - regarding persons such as myself claiming to teach his pattern - a claim I have never held onto, except that I have used it as a springboard to look at the correspondence of lines, line extensions in the 1-4 Line and line translation to define the 5-prime and 5-second points, and the rules of Point-4 relative to ppoints 1 and 2, as well as the take-profit rules relative to price adverse excursion ... All of which you are welcome to review in past analyses. All these are simply observatins I have garnered over the years, and may not at all represent valid points or concepts taught by the author.

Truth is, all harmonics, mucic, painting and grand building projects are built upon the prior discoveries. For instance, the Gann Square was discovered by WIlliam delbert Gann ("W.D. Gann") during one of his trip in the east. Reportedly, he came across the geometries that have an application in forecasting (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Delbert_Gann ). This is very reminiscent of the reading material I had come across about sacred numbers during my years learning about numerology and architecture (e.g.: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sacred_architecture, although my focus was on Hassan Fathy: http://www.greenprophet.com/2010/02/hassn-fathy-sustainable-architecture/, which later on inspired me to go to Haiti to develop what Nader Khalili had called "Ceramic Houses": http://calearth.org/shop/index.php?l=product_detail&p=14).


The saying will always be true: There is nothing new under the sun. However, there is always something new in the mind, and this is where a lot of the technical analysis remain to be unearthed.

Thank you for reading this far, and for taking interest in the analysis and comments I post.

Have a fantastic week-end, and do not forget to move your clock forward this Sunday ("Fall, back ... Spring, forward").


Stay tuned,



David Alcindor
+8 Reply
07 MAR 2015 - The WW and AWW:

Very quickly, here I want to post what I perceive to be a large WW (in fact, this was first noted I believe by @iefan, so all the credit is due to him for deciphering it). The purpose of posting this chart here is simply to show you that market geometries are simply innocuous, but omni-present.

As strange as this may sound, I do not use the geometries for my trading, but I use them to remove the abstraction of my predictive/forecasting model which defines trend, strength, extent, retracement and reversal levels on its own, when posting the targets without any reasoning would risk to lose the audience. So, I make use of high-probability target to bridge that conceptual gap, not to show how stable or reliable the model is - this is something I have relied upon for years and need not to prove to anyone but me - but to show that there is a reasonable line of ideas between a posted target and a probable pathway from the current price level to the potential target, by way of geometries.

Here is the $USDMXN chart:

snapshot


You will notice in the chart several features. First, at the bottom left is a smaller WW. Inside the larger one, there is a AWW. Both of these patterns show an orange arrow pointing to the target line that would have been defined had price been at that level of pattern development.

In the background, a larger pattern stands unanswered, which is what I perceive to be a WW, with price seeking loftier levels of geometric attainment, defined herein as five-prime (5') and five-second (5'') - These are simply defined by the translation of the 2-4 Line originating off of Point-3 (5') and off of Point-1 (5''). I recommend traders to simply "look and feel" for the pattern for the time being if these are first encounters and novel concepts too "weird" to grasp.


There are several aspects of the WW I have discovered and talked about in the past. Whether these are addressed, talked about, named or even known by Mr. Bill Wolfe, I do no know. I have resolved to stop contacting these persons in the past, simply because they tend to be either not responding (Mr. Welles Wilder remained unavailable at times I tried to contact him, even as a paying member of his products and services through his site: www.DeltaSociety.com, while Mr. Andrew E. Cardwell, Jr only had contempt about John Hayden's book on RSI, calling it plagiarism, since Mr. Hayden simply "stole" his lesson content and wrote it into a little pamphlet. Mr. Cardwell never asked about my interest in sharing my RSI discoveries, and Mr. Hayden never answered to my emails - This was several years ago, so I decided to brush this off, and lately, I contacted Mrs. Constance (Connie) Brown, whom I felt was the least chalorous person of them all - All in all, these persons have helped me lose my interest in joining the MTA, or even gain that level of certification, simply because I do not believe that would earn me that level of accessibility. And if that is all that it took, then I find it to be too bad - But this is all another story, which overall I have kept in mind whenever I am being approached by Junior traders: I want to remain as accessible as possible. I do the same with students in medicine, or anyone interested to see what I do in the my emergencies.)


Enough ranting, and back to the WW:

What I would to point out to the trader are some basic discoveries I have made - Again, whether they are already established rules by its authors, or additional elements bearing relevance or not to his overall knowledge of his own discoveries of the pattern, I do not know, but here is what I can contribute:

1 - Point-4 of the WW has to exist between the price projection level of Point1 and Point-2.
2 - The 1-3 Line can be used as a counter-trend trigger line (heck, now you can even use TradingView's alert line to know when price has reached it!) in order to enter a counter-trend trade
3 - When entering a counter-trend trade, there is a chance that price might still rally, as in the case of $USDMXN, where price is carving out higher-highs into the 5-prime, and now perhaps the 5-second level. So, only trade based on the extend that your risk management will let you. In this case, perhaps waiting for price to came back down and close below the 1-3 Line would be a safer, more conservative way of entering.
4 - The 2-4 Line is an relevant part of the geometries, when it is used to define the 5' or 5'' points. However, it also helps define the Take-Profit ("TP") Line, which is the one I use dots to define, as opposed to dashes for the 5' or 5" line, and solids for the core pattern at points 1, 2, 3 and 4 (just a way I like to use line, since I am a desperate visual trader).

Now, here is a novel concept, which I have called "tunneling".



TUNNELING:

Whenever the WW develops, there is no particular way to preempt its development, except whenever it comes to complete Point-4, at which time, price moves in a counter-trend and courses its way towards Point-5, or even 5' or 5''. What is quite interesting here as a geometric development is the fact that looking at either bars or candles, you will see that price will consistently "skip", or simply open/close on either side of an imaginary line, which at completion of the WW will become the TP Line.

The particular characteristics of this line is that it is "pre-thought" by the market, not after Point-4, but at the inception of Point-1, going forward. It appears that the market will draw the pattern will spare a space which will effectively create a tunnel, allowing points 1 and 4 to be linked in a way that price spares the line my rarely creating a candle body or rice bar range across it, but instead above and below it. Visually, this will produce what I have defined a "Tunneling" phenomenon, which is what I use often to add credence to the existence of the pattern. Whether this is a valid reason or not is up to the trader to define.

Please, refer to this Google link that queries this concept to review other charts I have demonstrated this very geometric phenomenon: https://www.google.com/search?q=tradingview+tunneling+WW&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

If you like these lessons, let me know by thumb-ups, friendly referral or posting the link of this entire thread to other site. As a moderator, I do all this out of sheer interest in technical analysis, pushing the edges of market geometries to taut levels of occult and sometimes absurd levels. But that is how you find out that the earth is round after all.

Stay tuned for more lessons.


David Alcindor




+8 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David

Thank you very much for this thread, I hope I'm not hijacking it with the following chart and question.

I believe I have a WW here, however, I would still appreciate it if you could have a look at it for me. Also I was wondering if, in your experience, you have found that WWs with certain geometric proportions have a higher probability of completing successfully compared to others...i.e. do WWs that stay in a more parallel channel have a greater probability of success than those that form in a wedge type shape. Lastly do you use any other signals or indications/indicators ( RSI Divergence? ) to assess the likelihood of a WW completing successfully?

I hope I was able to express my questions clearly.

Than you for your time.

iefan

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - This is meeting all of the requirements I would be seeking, except the "tunneling" rule ...

If you look at your $TLSA, you will see that the tunneling applied very well:

Occult Geometries Suggest Probable Buyoancy | $TLSA #tsla #tesla

- https://www.tradingview.com/v/VjoyQlDQ/#tc149550

But, in this case, the 1-4 Line is cutting through several bars. It may still be right, but when the tunneling is not occurring, then I would tend to be suspicious that the pattern may not be quite complete.

For instance, the 5-prime you printed could very well be Point-3 of the WW, whereas Point-4 would thus remain to be completed still.

What you could start doing on a separate "scratch paper" chart is simply to through an imaginary, speculative 1-4 Line that would skin through tops and bottoms of bars, as if to define its own tunneling.

You will see that more often than not, you will be able to approximate the future reversal level at which Point-4 would complete. It is nothing more than reverse engineering the WW pattern, using strictly the tunneling rule I have developed as a strict conditional basis for seeking a potential early completion of the WW pattern.

Is this making sense?

David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
(somehow, it printed my chart, in the explanation I just posted, even though I used the URL of the $TSLA chart you had posted in the $TSLA thread - Still, refer to it and see what I mean about the lack of tunneling - David)
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yes it makes perfect sense, I now fully understand what 'tunneling' is, thank you.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - To further answer your question, I would refer to the www.wofewave.com site, where the author gives his own explanation of the pattern.

I have discovered that site only later, after I sorted out my own conditions about the pattern. From it, I developed m own ROE about the AWW, which is not a pattern that the author speaks about. Therefore, per author, the lines cannot be parallel, whereas in the pattern I extrapolated, I developed two sets of conditions that would help define what I then called the AWW.

Strictly speaking, both lines 1-3 and 2-4 have to point in the same direction (i.e.: both up or both down), and both Lines 1-3 and 2-4 have to be convergent.

In terms of probability of completion, I have no specific numbers. I have found the strict WW to be very reliable, but I also developed my own rules about it, in terms of probability of reversal from Point-5, Point-5' and Point-5", which are:

1 - Reversal from Point-5 offers a high probability of reversal and validation of the 1-4 TP line
2 - Reversal from Point-5' offers a high probability of reversal and validation of hitting price level of Point-4
3 - Reversal from Point-5" offers a high probability of reversal and validation of hitting price level of Point-3

These are solid rules based on my own empirical experience.

David
+5 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Invaluable, thank you very much David!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
I made a typo - The site's name is:


www.wolfewave.com


David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot


Hi David. My first attempt at AWW, however I suspect point 2 is incorrect. Really nice "tunneling" 1-4 Line right?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - Let's look at the rules, the way I see them (I have contacted Mr. Bill Wolfe today, asking him to look into the discoveries in geometries I have made in his pattern - he might be curious about it, or simply upset that I did not take his course and that I went on dispensing my own views about it, in a way that would likely be contrary to what he would recommend ... We will see).

Okay, so first and foremost:

1 - Lines 1-3 and 2-4 have to be convergent ... Not happening here.
2 - Point-4 place between the values of Point-1 and Point-2 ... Check
3 - Points 2 and 3 are connected by a complex zig-zag (I would consult the W-X-Y-XX-Z pattern in EW as one of the most complex z / X-Y / zz construct ... Here, 2-3 is an impulse, so not sure as of yet ... I am still looking at this "new" internal rule, although Mr. Bill Wolfe is very adamant about NOT using any indicator, Elliott Wave ... But, since Rule #1 is VOID, we are here dealing with the AWW, which is not his "jurisdiction", so to speak.
4 - Tunneling ... check

That's most of the rules, and again, here we are dealing with an alternate pattern ... I like it!

David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Note also that your pese might be coming down as well ...

snapshot



... Having reached the 5-second position. Looks a bit ready.



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Been watching it closely....TP at price level of Point-3 right?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes, according to "best practice" i recommended in the rules - David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
18 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDMXN rolled from geo's Point-5"; Eyes bearish 14.8201 target as forecast:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $MXN #peso #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Look for reversal at/near 12.42361

David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you David!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - The BIG picture:

$USDZAR - Weekly:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
10 MAR 2015 - ADDENDUM - Re: $USD ZAR, Final charts with three numerical and 1 nominal target:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
16 MAR 2015 - Update: Target got hit; Price is receding from that level; High-probability reversal reached:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
16 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:

Be sure to play out the WW at the M60 level ... It is likely to develop, allowing price to retest highs as the consolidation consumes all bullish positions.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
18 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDZAR continues to fall from forecast 12.42361; Eyes first bearish target at 11.81170:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $ZAR
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
18 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDZAR validated support atop geo's 1-3-5 Line; 1-3 Line becomes bullish defensive trench;

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $ZAR
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Amazing......99.9% of South Africa won't believe you...its all doom and gloom here at the moment.... Thankfully due to you and the Tradingview community I have an understanding of technical analysis and now that you have shown me the weekly view ( never thought to look...) I can actually see how this is possible. Thank you for this chart, I do appreciate it very much.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Remember that I can be 99% wrong too.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The reason I am looking at the WEEKLY level is because all of the predictive analysis on the USDollar / $DXY have been proven wrong, as price as tended upwards against all the H4 level.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hence, according to the Model's rule, this means that a higher timeframe of reference (in the multiple order of FOUR to the very least) much have interfered - David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Indeed, my stop loss will be in place....but I know from experience I always kick myself if I don't trade your ideas!
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
I dont trade all of the charts I post. For the most part, I look at the charts as directional indicators. In this case, the $USDZAR could be used to support a potential decline in $USD among majors and minors alike.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
If $ZAR is supposed to strengthen and $AUD weaken, then a potential trade could also be had in the $AUDZAR pair (I did not check whether this particular pair exists at all, but for illustration purposes, this is an example worth illustrating what to do with the charts I post.

Also, if I post a WEEKLY chart, or better a DAILY chart, all this is showing (if indeed price reverses as forecast) is the dominant winds. Looking at it at the h4 level, there is a lot of swing that may take anyone out - So, best is to calibrate the weekly trade using a smaller timeframe based on the trader's own risk profile.

David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot


Hi David. At the risk of becoming bothersome, would you mind glancing at the $AUDZAR Monthly WW chart above and critiquing it for me. Much appreciated. Iefan
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Yes, glancing at it, I agree with the technical content.

Now, where would you consider placing the following:

1 - Entry (either single or graded//partials
2 - SL, where, why?
3 - TP, either single or graded, where, why?

David
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Makes complete sense.
+1 Reply
10 mar 2015 - TECH-NOTE:


Following is a technical discussion I have decided worth posting publicly, to highlight yet another feature of the WW - I do plan on contacting the author of the pattern and see whether any of my empirical discoveries of certain features of the patterns have been noted by this author as well.

Features noted so far, but not yet discussed in their entirety are:

1 - Tunneling (a geometric phenomenon in which sparing of the 1-4 Line occurs well in advance)
2 - Prime and second positions relative to point-5 (a translation of the 2-4 Line off of point-3 or point1, respectively)
3 - Influence of 5-prime and 5-second positions relative to take-profit strategies (the higher the adverse excursion from point-5, the more proximate the TP level relative to the 1-4 Line, or points 4 or 3, in this respective order)
4 - Wave count relationships with Elliott Wave patterns (i.e.; WW does not require taking highest/lowest points, but terminal wave at impulsive EW's point-5 or corrective EW's point-c)
5 - Alternate WW, or "AWW", emphasizes the 1-3 Line importance, whereas a relative position of price crossing on internal trendline will decide the reversibility of price relative to its 1-4 Line

There are other, more minutes features discovered relative to the entire geometry and cross-reference with other proprietary patterns, but the above rules are all that one would ever need to trade profitably on the pattern alone. Again, as noted before, the author's page and information on the pattern can be found at:

www.WolfeWave.com - I woulr urge anyone to take the lessons and to heed the cautionary words of the author who states clearly that:

"Examples that I have seen on the internet of supposedly Wolfe Waves, bare no resemblance to what I currently teach. I cannot over emphasize this point."
-- Bill Wolfe, Letter To Prospective Clients
(Source: http://wolfewave.com/a_letter_to_prospective_clients_.htm)

I would also like to say that no one is above or below that level of being able to contribute to the vast body of technical knowledge, but one is always within the reaching chance of giving credit to its author. I would appreciate if you could continue to make reference to Mr. Bill Wolfe's URL (www.WolfeWave.com) as a matter of respect and ethics, as well as distinguishing his pattern by name from the observations that I have made, which are not part of the features he has represented on his introduction of the pattern on that aforementioned URL. My personal interest for sharing most of my market geo research with you is simply to continue to contribute to that hissing pulling forces of other technician working hard and diligently to bring out of obscurity the many intricacies that lay either hidden or abstracted before it ever came to be projected on that canvas which we call price field on which we lay or shy attempts at deciphering what truly is in the "camera", or dark chanber of mathematics and market geometries, before it ever came to be projected in front of our eyes.

I have been studying these forms and functions from the time I shifted my education from a degree in architecture to one in medicine, and my fascination for deciphering hidden forms and occult functions has simply be transferred to the financial markets. I hope that I merely contribute a single wrung to this edifying body of knowledge which ceases not to amaze me on a daily basis.

Stay harmoniously tuned,


David Alcindor


PS: Following is the cut/paste reply to a WW-related inquiry:

=======================
Hello, @ XXX - Yes, I have this in my note, byt am waiting for further developement to complete Point-5 - As you have noted, the 1-4 Line is very much worth heeding, and this is a line that WILL impose resistance against any advance in the future.

What you want to keep in mind, and that is one of the many observations I have made about this pattern, is that it typically has a simple zig-zag formation that connects points 1-2, as well as points 4-5 most of the time, whereas the 2-3 connection can be elongated by 2 or 3 zig-zags.

By zig-zags, I am referring to the internal a-b-c patterns, in which an internal a-wave moves a small distance against the main trend, then resumes in its b-wave segment, and finally resumes a last countertrend in c-wave, the net effect is typically a zig-zag ("ZZ") formation that leads the new point (here, say Point-1) to a new location.

I will cut-paste this information in the recent predictive/forecasting explanation I posted this week, so as to keep this point as part of the bigger picture of advanced pattern analysis, which I believe is worth keeping in sight as a background to any other personal analyses - David
========================


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
10 MAR 2015 - PREDICTIVE & FORECASTING MODEL - EXPLAINED:



NOMINAL vs. NUMERICAL TARGET:

The nominal target and numerical target are different by their relative probabilities of price ever reaching them, and by whether price might either retrace or reverse. This means that:

1 - Numerical Targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... etc.) offer a HIGH probability of being hit, but a LOW probability of causing a reversal
2 - Nominal Targets (i.e.: TG-Hi/Low and their extremes, TG-Hix/TG-Lox) offer a LOW probability of being hit, but a HIGH probability of causing a reversal.

The most important aspect of this is difference:
1 - Numerical targets help define hidden geometries, such as nodes and nodules (i.e.: discreet, temporary RETRACEMENTS whose geometric center will cast a WEAK R/S level in the future, and often line up with significant structures or R/S levels from the past.
2 - Nominal targets will define tip-top and bottom-tip REVERSALS - Very often, you will see that price will bounce off of these levels, then go beyond them in a way that creates a symmetry right around the Nominal Target, and then reverse.

Note that in these numerical vs. nominal rules remain unrelated but useful as supportive events in the overall predictive/forecasting model.


RETRACEMENT vs. REVERSAL:

The NUMERICAL targets are associated with RETRACEMENTS, in contrast to NOMINAL targets, which are associated with REVERSALS.

The difference between a reversal and a retracement in the context of these targets is that:

1 - Retracement refer to price turn-around in the Fibonacci order that will NOT exceed 0.618.

So, a typical price reaction reaching a numerical target would be to temporarily retrace in the Fibonacci order of 0.382, 0.500 or 0.618 in most cases.

In the most aggressive markets, 0.214 or even 0.114 would occur, which are nothing other than complements of 0.786 and 0.886 (1.000 - 0.786 = 0.214 and 1.000 - 0.816 - 0.114), respectively.

2 - Reversals refer to price turn-around in the Fibonacci order that WILL exceed 0.618, and might reach 0.786, 0.886 as far as contraction reversals, or event reach out to 1.272, 1.414, or 1.618 expansion reversals, in the most counter-aggressive markets.

These levels are determined by the very geometric nature of the targets. In contrast, the targets are defined by non-price events.

Combined together, the model benefits from both a directional bias signal (predictive of direction and strength) as well as from a deterministic signal (forecasting a retracement vs. reversal), all of which constituting the Predictive/Forecasting "Model".


RULE OF SCALE - WHEN THE PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL FAILS:

Failure of a NOMINAL at a given timeframe means that a higher timeframe is interfering by gaining control of price - The rule defines that the higher timeframe rests at 4 times above the current level.

For instance, a failure at M15 means that a controlling actor exists at M15 x 4 = H1. Similarly, a failure at H1 would mean H4, and H4 demands attention to be brought up to 16-hour frame, although at that point, I simply move on up to the daily level.

The rule of scale simply implies that heavier hands or larger funded forces will flood in orders that will distort the lesser-frame analyses, interfering with the normal model.

In a way, the model uses its failures as a signal to look at the next level up.

The rule also implies that that higher the source of the interference (say it comes from a DAILY level), the less frequent it will occur, but the longer lasting its directional effect on price.

This is simply verifiable by, say a major banque liquidating a position in a way that is controlled over several days or weeks at Fib-paced moves.

Best is to look at the hierarchy of fundamental forces apt to impact price, such that Central bank having a greater lasting effect on price relative to major banks, institutional Traders and retail traders, in this diminishing order of relevance.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----
+4 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, what are you doing here, for me called "soul deposit". Sharing knowledge and experience without some return to a world of highly competitive and greedy for profit. Thank you very much.....
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO takefal
2 years ago
Thank you @takefal for saying this. It is much appreciated.

David
+1 Reply
Pip_Alchemist 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Dear David
I am not only learning from you but I am seeing the movement of markets in a whole different way. You have helped to open my technical third eye which enables me to see the market for its true self. Thank you for your wisdom and know that there are forces out there that are thanking you!

Rodrigo
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
2 years ago
Thank you so much for this very kind and encouraging worded support - I am preparing a new thread on WW. So, stay tuned.

David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
iefan PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hi David. Not the most geometrically balanced WW, some tunnelling is present.....what are your thoughts on the probability of this possible price movement. Thank you. Iefan
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - I just gave you a little hint on a possible tunneling development using the plotting explained below - David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - Very often, the current plots at points 1 and 3 will represent a weaker probability construct for the background pattern. These point will tend to belong to other momentous geometric development, such as the Elliott Wave's own point3 (at your current point-1) and Point-5 (at your current point-3), with a transitional correction (xig-zap, a-b-c patterning of price action) reversing at EW's Point-4 (represented by your point-2).

Instead, if you draw a PRELIMINARY 1-4 Line from your current point-3 (probably point-1 of a nascent WW-like geo) and the nadir from your current point-4 9i.e.: the low reactive low reached following your current point-4), then such projection might possibly promise to be a 1-4 Line of the nascent geometry.

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
Reply
iefan PRO iefan
2 years ago
Thanks David, tunnelling looks much more symmetrical and geometry looks balanced....lets see how it plays out. Cheers iefan
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
Another attempt at spotting WW's....just practising.... Hope you don't mind pointing out if I'm charting incorrectly. Cheers iefan
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Yes, I agree for the most part (I too struggle with the placement of Point-2: Whether EW is considered or a nadir/structure is the point to consider. There is not one strong solution ... I am sure that Mr. Bill Wolfe (site: www.wolfewave.com) would say that there is one and only one way, and that would be pretty much correctly his own way, but my own work on this and similar patterns (e.e.: AWW) show that the use of Fibanocci, EW and my own predictive model) as well as indicators are simply best to confirm the development of the pattern.

Great.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@iefan - By the way, here too, feel free to add frame-by-frame follow-thru development of the pattern.

I will soon dedicate a thread to this pattern for others to pitch in, discuss and perhaps trade on their own.

David
Reply
nikokoev
2 years ago
Hi David! What is your view on EUR/USD. After FED games price correct to 61.8 fib on last impuls. Is this pair ready to continue its downtrend.
snapshot
Reply
20 MAR 2015 - New Lessons:


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"Advanced Financial Market Geometries
- Educational Ideas & Discussions"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Link:
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions




Friends,

Please, feel free to share among other peers. The lessons, tips, targets and pearls will occur over time. I have taken the time to post several charts involving major Forex pairs, as well as some other charts. This is an on-going effort to introduce you to market geometries used in forecasting targets, as well as determining a point of reversal.

The lessons are free, remain on TradingView.com and will not ask you to leave the site or link up to some other silly commercial venture.

Feels free to give it a thum-up if this is pertinent to your interest in technical analysis, and to forward to peers. But by all means, I would like that proper credit and linking be maintained in any subsequent sharing. It's free, but represents tremendous work for your viewing pleasure.

Thank you.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


Link:
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions


.
+2 Reply
21 APR 2015 - Update:

Hello TV'ers,

At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.

If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by  within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.

One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.

My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.

I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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