A quick explanation of what TG-Hi, Lo and TG-Hix and TG-Lox are - Cut/pasted from a private message:
WHAT ARE TG-Hi/Lo; HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO TG-Hix/Lox?
---------------------------------- TG-Hi and TG-Lo are are named target, as opposed to numbered target, hence called nominal target.
Nominal targets represent a low-probability level of being attained, but a high-probability level of reversal if and once price gets there.
Hi refers to the bullish placement relative to price, whereas Lo is its antipod, bearish placement.
Because the markets will be subjected to a varying degree of momentum, the model also ascribes a much lower, and in fact, rarer occurrence, whereby price would reach an extreme reversible level, which explains the "x" in the targets, or TG-Hix and TG-Lox.
All TG-Lo/Hi targets will be in RED, whereas their extremes will be in PURPLE.
Most recently, I have added numbers in BLUE which represent trigger level that, if reached, should prompt the trader to turn to a higher timeframe, in the order of 4 times the current frame (e.g.: M15 x 4 = H1, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc) as attainment of this level is simple the rarest of events, and suggests a higher-frame interference by typically better funded players, stronger institutions - This augmentation in timeframe should be done even once the purple target is in effect and the technical analysis should be redrawn or at least re-considered at the newer, higher frame, simply to preempt any cooptation by stronger actors - I will post this explanation on few other charts as well - Thank you for asking and remaining curious. - David Alcindor ----------------------------------
... cont'd in thread ...
----------------------------------
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Very quickly, here I want to post what I perceive to be a large WW (in fact, this was first noted I believe by @iefan, so all the credit is due to him for deciphering it). The purpose of posting this chart here is simply to show you that market geometries are simply innocuous, but omni-present.
As strange as this may sound, I do not use the geometries for my trading, but I use them to remove the abstraction of my predictive/forecasting model which defines trend, strength, extent, retracement and reversal levels on its own, when posting the targets without any reasoning would risk to lose the audience. So, I make use of high-probability target to bridge that conceptual gap, not to show how stable or reliable the model is - this is something I have relied upon for years and need not to prove to anyone but me - but to show that there is a reasonable line of ideas between a posted target and a probable pathway from the current price level to the potential target, by way of geometries.
You will notice in the chart several features. First, at the bottom left is a smaller WW. Inside the larger one, there is a AWW. Both of these patterns show an orange arrow pointing to the target line that would have been defined had price been at that level of pattern development.
In the background, a larger pattern stands unanswered, which is what I perceive to be a WW, with price seeking loftier levels of geometric attainment, defined herein as five-prime (5') and five-second (5'') - These are simply defined by the translation of the 2-4 Line originating off of Point-3 (5') and off of Point-1 (5''). I recommend traders to simply "look and feel" for the pattern for the time being if these are first encounters and novel concepts too "weird" to grasp.
There are several aspects of the WW I have discovered and talked about in the past. Whether these are addressed, talked about, named or even known by Mr. Bill Wolfe, I do no know. I have resolved to stop contacting these persons in the past, simply because they tend to be either not responding (Mr. Welles Wilder remained unavailable at times I tried to contact him, even as a paying member of his products and services through his site: DeltaSociety.com, while Mr. Andrew E. Cardwell, Jr only had contempt about John Hayden's book on RSI, calling it plagiarism, since Mr. Hayden simply "stole" his lesson content and wrote it into a little pamphlet. Mr. Cardwell never asked about my interest in sharing my RSI discoveries, and Mr. Hayden never answered to my emails - This was several years ago, so I decided to brush this off, and lately, I contacted Mrs. Constance (Connie) Brown, whom I felt was the least chalorous person of them all - All in all, these persons have helped me lose my interest in joining the MTA, or even gain that level of certification, simply because I do not believe that would earn me that level of accessibility. And if that is all that it took, then I find it to be too bad - But this is all another story, which overall I have kept in mind whenever I am being approached by Junior traders: I want to remain as accessible as possible. I do the same with students in medicine, or anyone interested to see what I do in the my emergencies.)
Enough ranting, and back to the WW:
What I would to point out to the trader are some basic discoveries I have made - Again, whether they are already established rules by its authors, or additional elements bearing relevance or not to his overall knowledge of his own discoveries of the pattern, I do not know, but here is what I can contribute:
1 - Point-4 of the WW has to exist between the price projection level of Point1 and Point-2.
2 - The 1-3 Line can be used as a counter-trend trigger line (heck, now you can even use TradingView's alert line to know when price has reached it!) in order to enter a counter-trend trade
3 - When entering a counter-trend trade, there is a chance that price might still rally, as in the case of USDMXN, where price is carving out higher-highs into the 5-prime, and now perhaps the 5-second level. So, only trade based on the extend that your risk management will let you. In this case, perhaps waiting for price to came back down and close below the 1-3 Line would be a safer, more conservative way of entering.
4 - The 2-4 Line is an relevant part of the geometries, when it is used to define the 5' or 5'' points. However, it also helps define the Take-Profit ("TP") Line, which is the one I use dots to define, as opposed to dashes for the 5' or 5" line, and solids for the core pattern at points 1, 2, 3 and 4 (just a way I like to use line, since I am a desperate visual trader).
Now, here is a novel concept, which I have called "tunneling".
TUNNELING:
Whenever the WW develops, there is no particular way to preempt its development, except whenever it comes to complete Point-4, at which time, price moves in a counter-trend and courses its way towards Point-5, or even 5' or 5''. What is quite interesting here as a geometric development is the fact that looking at either bars or candles, you will see that price will consistently "skip", or simply open/close on either side of an imaginary line, which at completion of the WW will become the TP Line.
The particular characteristics of this line is that it is "pre-thought" by the market, not after Point-4, but at the inception of Point-1, going forward. It appears that the market will draw the pattern will spare a space which will effectively create a tunnel, allowing points 1 and 4 to be linked in a way that price spares the line my rarely creating a candle body or rice bar range across it, but instead above and below it. Visually, this will produce what I have defined a "Tunneling" phenomenon, which is what I use often to add credence to the existence of the pattern. Whether this is a valid reason or not is up to the trader to define.
If you like these lessons, let me know by thumb-ups, friendly referral or posting the link of this entire thread to other site. As a moderator, I do all this out of sheer interest in technical analysis, pushing the edges of market geometries to taut levels of occult and sometimes absurd levels. But that is how you find out that the earth is round after all.
Stay tuned for more lessons.
David Alcindor
iefan
⋅
Hi David
Thank you very much for this thread, I hope I'm not hijacking it with the following chart and question.
I believe I have a WW here, however, I would still appreciate it if you could have a look at it for me. Also I was wondering if, in your experience, you have found that WWs with certain geometric proportions have a higher probability of completing successfully compared to others...i.e. do WWs that stay in a more parallel channel have a greater probability of success than those that form in a wedge type shape. Lastly do you use any other signals or indications/indicators ( RSI Divergence? ) to assess the likelihood of a WW completing successfully?
I hope I was able to express my questions clearly.
Than you for your time.
iefan
4xForecaster
⋅
@iefan - This is meeting all of the requirements I would be seeking, except the "tunneling" rule ...
If you look at your TLSA, you will see that the tunneling applied very well:
But, in this case, the 1-4 Line is cutting through several bars. It may still be right, but when the tunneling is not occurring, then I would tend to be suspicious that the pattern may not be quite complete.
For instance, the 5-prime you printed could very well be Point-3 of the WW, whereas Point-4 would thus remain to be completed still.
What you could start doing on a separate "scratch paper" chart is simply to through an imaginary, speculative 1-4 Line that would skin through tops and bottoms of bars, as if to define its own tunneling.
You will see that more often than not, you will be able to approximate the future reversal level at which Point-4 would complete. It is nothing more than reverse engineering the WW pattern, using strictly the tunneling rule I have developed as a strict conditional basis for seeking a potential early completion of the WW pattern.
Is this making sense?
David
4xForecaster
⋅
(somehow, it printed my chart, in the explanation I just posted, even though I used the URL of the TSLA chart you had posted in the TSLA thread - Still, refer to it and see what I mean about the lack of tunneling - David)
iefan
⋅
Yes it makes perfect sense, I now fully understand what 'tunneling' is, thank you.
4xForecaster
⋅
@iefan - To further answer your question, I would refer to the wofewave.com site, where the author gives his own explanation of the pattern.
I have discovered that site only later, after I sorted out my own conditions about the pattern. From it, I developed m own ROE about the AWW, which is not a pattern that the author speaks about. Therefore, per author, the lines cannot be parallel, whereas in the pattern I extrapolated, I developed two sets of conditions that would help define what I then called the AWW.
Strictly speaking, both lines 1-3 and 2-4 have to point in the same direction (i.e.: both up or both down), and both Lines 1-3 and 2-4 have to be convergent.
In terms of probability of completion, I have no specific numbers. I have found the strict WW to be very reliable, but I also developed my own rules about it, in terms of probability of reversal from Point-5, Point-5' and Point-5", which are:
1 - Reversal from Point-5 offers a high probability of reversal and validation of the 1-4 TP line
2 - Reversal from Point-5' offers a high probability of reversal and validation of hitting price level of Point-4
3 - Reversal from Point-5" offers a high probability of reversal and validation of hitting price level of Point-3
These are solid rules based on my own empirical experience.
Hi David. My first attempt at AWW, however I suspect point 2 is incorrect. Really nice "tunneling" 1-4 Line right?
4xForecaster
⋅
Hello @iefan - Let's look at the rules, the way I see them (I have contacted Mr. Bill Wolfe today, asking him to look into the discoveries in geometries I have made in his pattern - he might be curious about it, or simply upset that I did not take his course and that I went on dispensing my own views about it, in a way that would likely be contrary to what he would recommend ... We will see).
Okay, so first and foremost:
1 - Lines 1-3 and 2-4 have to be convergent ... Not happening here.
2 - Point-4 place between the values of Point-1 and Point-2 ... Check
3 - Points 2 and 3 are connected by a complex zig-zag (I would consult the W-X-Y-XX-Z pattern in EW as one of the most complex z / X-Y / zz construct ... Here, 2-3 is an impulse, so not sure as of yet ... I am still looking at this "new" internal rule, although Mr. Bill Wolfe is very adamant about NOT using any indicator, Elliott Wave ... But, since Rule #1 is VOID, we are here dealing with the AWW, which is not his "jurisdiction", so to speak.
4 - Tunneling ... check
That's most of the rules, and again, here we are dealing with an alternate pattern ... I like it!
Very quickly, here I want to post what I perceive to be a large WW (in fact, this was first noted I believe by @iefan, so all the credit is due to him for deciphering it). The purpose of posting this chart here is simply to show you that market geometries are simply innocuous, but omni-present.
As strange as this may sound, I do not use the geometries for my trading, but I use them to remove the abstraction of my predictive/forecasting model which defines trend, strength, extent, retracement and reversal levels on its own, when posting the targets without any reasoning would risk to lose the audience. So, I make use of high-probability target to bridge that conceptual gap, not to show how stable or reliable the model is - this is something I have relied upon for years and need not to prove to anyone but me - but to show that there is a reasonable line of ideas between a posted target and a probable pathway from the current price level to the potential target, by way of geometries.
Here is the USDMXN chart:
You will notice in the chart several features. First, at the bottom left is a smaller WW. Inside the larger one, there is a AWW. Both of these patterns show an orange arrow pointing to the target line that would have been defined had price been at that level of pattern development.
In the background, a larger pattern stands unanswered, which is what I perceive to be a WW, with price seeking loftier levels of geometric attainment, defined herein as five-prime (5') and five-second (5'') - These are simply defined by the translation of the 2-4 Line originating off of Point-3 (5') and off of Point-1 (5''). I recommend traders to simply "look and feel" for the pattern for the time being if these are first encounters and novel concepts too "weird" to grasp.
There are several aspects of the WW I have discovered and talked about in the past. Whether these are addressed, talked about, named or even known by Mr. Bill Wolfe, I do no know. I have resolved to stop contacting these persons in the past, simply because they tend to be either not responding (Mr. Welles Wilder remained unavailable at times I tried to contact him, even as a paying member of his products and services through his site: DeltaSociety.com, while Mr. Andrew E. Cardwell, Jr only had contempt about John Hayden's book on RSI, calling it plagiarism, since Mr. Hayden simply "stole" his lesson content and wrote it into a little pamphlet. Mr. Cardwell never asked about my interest in sharing my RSI discoveries, and Mr. Hayden never answered to my emails - This was several years ago, so I decided to brush this off, and lately, I contacted Mrs. Constance (Connie) Brown, whom I felt was the least chalorous person of them all - All in all, these persons have helped me lose my interest in joining the MTA, or even gain that level of certification, simply because I do not believe that would earn me that level of accessibility. And if that is all that it took, then I find it to be too bad - But this is all another story, which overall I have kept in mind whenever I am being approached by Junior traders: I want to remain as accessible as possible. I do the same with students in medicine, or anyone interested to see what I do in the my emergencies.)
Enough ranting, and back to the WW:
What I would to point out to the trader are some basic discoveries I have made - Again, whether they are already established rules by its authors, or additional elements bearing relevance or not to his overall knowledge of his own discoveries of the pattern, I do not know, but here is what I can contribute:
1 - Point-4 of the WW has to exist between the price projection level of Point1 and Point-2.
2 - The 1-3 Line can be used as a counter-trend trigger line (heck, now you can even use TradingView's alert line to know when price has reached it!) in order to enter a counter-trend trade
3 - When entering a counter-trend trade, there is a chance that price might still rally, as in the case of USDMXN, where price is carving out higher-highs into the 5-prime, and now perhaps the 5-second level. So, only trade based on the extend that your risk management will let you. In this case, perhaps waiting for price to came back down and close below the 1-3 Line would be a safer, more conservative way of entering.
4 - The 2-4 Line is an relevant part of the geometries, when it is used to define the 5' or 5'' points. However, it also helps define the Take-Profit ("TP") Line, which is the one I use dots to define, as opposed to dashes for the 5' or 5" line, and solids for the core pattern at points 1, 2, 3 and 4 (just a way I like to use line, since I am a desperate visual trader).
Now, here is a novel concept, which I have called "tunneling".
TUNNELING:
Whenever the WW develops, there is no particular way to preempt its development, except whenever it comes to complete Point-4, at which time, price moves in a counter-trend and courses its way towards Point-5, or even 5' or 5''. What is quite interesting here as a geometric development is the fact that looking at either bars or candles, you will see that price will consistently "skip", or simply open/close on either side of an imaginary line, which at completion of the WW will become the TP Line.
The particular characteristics of this line is that it is "pre-thought" by the market, not after Point-4, but at the inception of Point-1, going forward. It appears that the market will draw the pattern will spare a space which will effectively create a tunnel, allowing points 1 and 4 to be linked in a way that price spares the line my rarely creating a candle body or rice bar range across it, but instead above and below it. Visually, this will produce what I have defined a "Tunneling" phenomenon, which is what I use often to add credence to the existence of the pattern. Whether this is a valid reason or not is up to the trader to define.
Please, refer to this Google link that queries this concept to review other charts I have demonstrated this very geometric phenomenon: google.com/search?q=tradingview+tunneling+WW&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
If you like these lessons, let me know by thumb-ups, friendly referral or posting the link of this entire thread to other site. As a moderator, I do all this out of sheer interest in technical analysis, pushing the edges of market geometries to taut levels of occult and sometimes absurd levels. But that is how you find out that the earth is round after all.
Stay tuned for more lessons.
David Alcindor