QuantitativeExhaustion
Long

Long Bullish Harmonic Bat, Conditional Position at 1.3092

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
8108 13 23
Short
Target
1.3153

Possible
Throwback (POP!)
1.325

Long Position
1.30915

Long
Target
1.3481

Possible Peak
1.356

Harmonic Bat Pattern

The harmonic bat pattern was discovered by Scott Carney in 2001. Carney maintains it is one of the most accurate patterns, and requires a smaller stop loss than most other patterns.

This is one of the retracement patterns (along with the Gartley Pattern ) - and is a deep retest of Support (in the case of a bullish Bat ) or Resistance (for a bearish bat ) around the X level. The D level reversal will be at the .886 XA retracement in the PRZ.

If a Bat fails - it can often "morph" into a Crab Pattern where the D point exceeds the X point.

This pattern usually has an extended CD leg which is 1.27 Fibonacci extension of the AB - providing a favourable risk/reward.

Systematic tests by FxGroundworks, have shown the Bat pattern success rates to be 89%-95%.

Harmonic Bat Pattern Structure
Key features to look out for are:

•A .886 XA retracement to the D point is necessary. The D point cannot exceed the X point - if it does, then the pattern is invalid.
• Other Fibonacci levels should be closely grouped in tne PRZ
•An extended AB=CD where the CD leg is 1.27 of the AB leg. Although, an AB=CD where AB and CD are the same length is acceptable, but is a minimum for the pattern to be valid.
•Minimum 1.618 BC             extension to the PRZ. Its preferable if the BC             extension is 2.0. Could also be as much as 2.618.
•The B point retracement must be less than .618 to be a valid pattern. e.g. B could be 0.5 or . 382 retracement of the XA.


Trading View
Fun Trading This One. Expect more volatilty towards the end of the month
Reply
It looks nice, but it has a good chance not to test 1.3150 that fast, it might break first 1.34, good German and EU ZEW might help the euro to do that, a fall back to 1.31 might occur next week if they will not agree on the debt ceiling. Until then only a break under 1.3250 could trigger the down move needed for this Harmonic Pattern.
Reply
I agree.... looked like it had a chance to dive 1.3153. Now looking bullish again
Reply
Thanks for taking a look
Reply
Razvan QuantitativeExhaustion
it is a very good idea, and also another perspective that deserves a chance:), and it still might have a chance :D
Reply
Yes indeed, probably later this month
Reply
first of all, this is not a bat pattern, but a gartley 222 buy. second of all, gartley buys are more meaningful at the bottom rather than the top of a move, obviously.
Reply
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